Global development progress has stalled as rich nations shift aid budgets toward climate mitigation, but focusing resources on high-return investments in health, education, and economic growth offers the most effective path to uplift the world’s poorest, say Indermit Gill and Bjorn Lomborg
The last 75 years have brought the greatest improvement of human welfare in history.
asserted
years → stall → history
But over the past decade, much of that progress has stalled.
asserted
much → stall → progress
This happened at the same time that the rich world shifted its attention to climate change.
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world → happen → change
This is not a coincidence, and it has to change.
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it → have → ?
Today the share is 7.6 per cent, the lowest ever recorded.
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share → record → ?
Average schooling has almost tripled, from 3.2 years to nearly nine.
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schooling → triple → nine
Electricity access has soared.
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access → soar → ?
Problems remain, but the gains have been spectacular.
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gains → remain → ?
Now development has slowed to a crawl.
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development → slow → crawl
After almost two centuries of declining poverty, the number of poor people hasn’t budged since 2016.
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number → decline → 2016
Global progress is at its slowest pace since 1950, according to the World Bank.
uncertain
progress → accord → Bank
There are many causes but one stands out.
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one → be → ?
In 2016, the world retired its Millennium Development Goals – a shortlist of mostly efficient, targeted aims: cut poverty, disease, maternal and child deaths and get every child into school.
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world → retire → school
In their place came the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Goals → come → place
Climate change became the rich world’s obsession.
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change → become → ?
Helping the poorest
Nowhere is this obsession clearer than in the rich world development aid.
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obsession → help → aid
Its core purpose is to help development, yet increasingly money is instead spent on climate.
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money → help → climate
In the United Kingdom, climate-tagged finance accounted for 26.7 per cent of its development-aid commitments in 2024, or $4.342bn.
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finance → tag → 2024
It is even more pronounced for the global development banks that now spend half its development money on climate, at about $103bn for low- and middle-income countries.
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that → spend → countries
Both Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the development banks seem to have convinced themselves that because poor people are more vulnerable to climate change, climate policy is crucial for development.
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policy → seem → development
The real question is whether climate policy is the best way to help them.
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policy → help → them
Examined rigorously, development generally wins decisively.
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development → examine → ?
Sustained economic growth is the surest predictor of a country’s ability to withstand climate shocks.
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growth → withstand → shocks
A 10 per cent rise in per capita gross domestic product can cut the number of people most exposed to climate disruption by 100m.
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rise → cut → 100
A hurricane kills hundreds in poor Haiti; the same storm merely inconveniences wealthy Florida.
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storm → kill → Florida
Resilience runs through development – not through a solar farm that raises power prices and slows industrialization.
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that → run → industrialization
Every dollar subsidizing solar panels or carbon accounting is a dollar not spent on schools, maternal health or clean water.
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dollar → subsidize → schools
Research by the Copenhagen Consensus, with more than 100 economists and several Nobel laureates, compared the returns.
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Research → compare → returns
Investments in nutrition, health and education routinely deliver $40 to $110 in social benefits per dollar.
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Investments → deliver → dollar
Climate-mitigation investments – funding emissions cuts in poor countries – often deliver much less back.
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investments → fund → less
For $2.50, an expectant mother can receive micronutrient supplements that prevent stunting and lifelong cognitive damage in her child – returning nearly $100 of long-term benefits.
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that → receive → benefits
Expanding diagnosis and treatment for tuberculosis and malaria, which still kill more than a million people a year, returns more than $45 for each dollar invested.
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which → expand → dollar
Much of Africa uses less electricity per person than a single refrigerator in a Western home.
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Much → use → home
The rich world built its wealth on cheap, reliable fossil fuels, which still supply over 80 per cent of global energy.
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which → build → energy
Yet most rich world development agencies and most development banks now refuse to finance new fossil-fuel projects in poor countries.
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agencies → refuse → countries
Germany has spent over €700bn on its energy transition since 2002; power prices more than doubled almost four-fifths fossil fueled.
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prices → spend → 2002
To demand that African nations achieve what Germany cannot – with a fraction of the resources – isn’t climate leadership.
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Germany → demand → resources
None of this requires abandoning climate, with both adaptation and green innovation delivering strong returns.
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adaptation → require → returns
But the rich world’s development institutions must overcome their climate fixation.
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institutions → overcome → fixation
The United Kingdom should learn from Norway’s official analysis: an expert group has recommended the government separate climate financing and other global public goods from the development budget.
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government → learn → budget
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
