Who Is Left On The Bench For 2033?

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Cite

Blackman, J. (2026, November 11). Who Is Left On The Bench For 2033? Reason. https://reason.com/volokh/2026/11/11/who-is-left-on-the-bench-for-2033/

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Reason · collected 2026-11-11 · by Josh Blackman

Quick Summary

The article discusses the political landscape leading up to 2033, suggesting that a Republican president with a Republican Senate is unlikely until then. Consequently, no conservative justices are expected to be appointed to the Supreme Court or lower courts over the next six years. The piece includes a list of Trump-appointed appellate judges who will be under 55 in 2033 and highlights that only six of them will be younger than 50, none from Trump's first term. The author also questions whether certain judges accused of "auditioning" for higher positions might age out of the Supreme Court consideration by 2033.
Written by AI on 2026-11-11, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of November 2026, it is highly unlikely that a Republican will control both the presidency and Senate until at least 2033. This political landscape means few conservative judges are likely to be appointed to the Supreme Court or lower courts over the next six years. According to legal expert Ed Whelan, 18 current Trump-appointed appellate judges will still be under age 55 by 2033, with only 6 of them under age 50, primarily from Trump's second term. The list includes judges like Andrew Oldham (born 1978) and Allison Jones Rushing (born 1982) who would be younger than 50 in 2033, but none from Trump’s first term fit this criterion. This situation could stall conservative judicial appointments for several years unless there is a significant shift in political power.

Written for “Fifa World Cup Qualifiers” on 2026-11-12, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence medium 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 145869 (medium confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-11-11

Story

Fifa World Cup Qualifiers
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
11
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
9%
1 of 11 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
67/100
Reason's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-11 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Josh Blackman
100 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
Even if a Republican wins the 2028 presidential election, it will be virtually impossible for the Senate to flip red during his term.
2026-11-11 · assertive framing · Who Is Left On The Bench For 2033?
Maybe Trump determined that he needed as many judges confirmed before January, so the identity of the judge didn't matter.
2026-11-11 · assertive framing · The President Nominates Circuit Judges, Not Senators
Given the large Democratic Senate majority and unfavorable maps for 2028 and 2030, a Republican Senate with the votes to confirm originalist judges may not return until 2033 at the earliest.
2026-11-10 · assertive framing · New in Civitas: "The Blue Tsunami Threatens To Drown Originalism"
I have known both of these sharp legal minds for some time, and would welcome their addition to the bench.
2026-11-09 · assertive framing · Justice Cody Hiland Publicly Criticizes The President For Nominating Him To District Court Instead of Eighth Circuit
"The loudest voices that people hear are these megachurches, and they think that's what we're all doing," said the Rev. Janet Maykus.
2026-11-09 · assertive framing · Talarico's Christianity
It is expected that, at some point, she will resign her U.S. senate seat, then take up the governor's position, and subsequently make a temporary appointment to fill her then-vacant senate seat.
2026-11-06 · assertive framing · Senator-Governor Klobuchar and the Problem of the Received Wisdom
Those outcomes will get a lot of attention.
2026-11-04 · assertive framing · Choosin' Texas I Can Tell
And Kagan spared California the fate that befell Missouri, which had to file a pointless brief that no one would read.
2026-11-03 · assertive framing · Full Court Denies DOJ Petition In California Election Case In About 7 Hours, No Reply Needed
I thought it might be worthwhile to dig into the numbers a bit more.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · Supreme Court Clerks Who Become Law Professors (2012-2026)
Today the law firm of Weil Gotshal announced that it would wind down.
2026-10-28 · assertive framing · Farewell to Weil
Also by Josh Blackman
The President Nominates Circuit Judges, Not Senators
2026-11-11 · Reason
Today in Supreme Court History: November 11, 1975
2026-11-11 · Reason
New in Civitas: "The Blue Tsunami Threatens To Drown Originalism"
2026-11-10 · Reason
Justice Cody Hiland Publicly Criticizes The President For Nominating Him To District Court Instead of Eighth Circuit
2026-11-09 · Reason
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 100 articles by Josh Blackman →

Topics

Democrats Republican Senate Trump the Supreme Court

Subjects

Republican NORP · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Senate ORG · 2× Andrew Oldham PERSON · 1× Britt Grant PERSON · 1× Democrats NORP · 1× Ed Whelan PERSON · 1× Patrick J. Bumatay PERSON · 1× Roberts PERSON · 1× the Supreme Court ORG · 1×

Narrative

- Andrew Oldham 1978 - Britt Grant 1978 - Patrick J. Bumatay 1978 - Matthew Schwartz 1978 - Eric E. Murphy 1979 - Daniel Bress 1979 - Steven Menashi 1979 - Robert J. Luck 1979 - Andrew L. Brasher 1981 - Emil Bove 1981 - Allison Jones Rushing 1982 - Justin R. Walker 1982 - Rebecca Taibleson 1983 - Joshua Dunlap 1983 - Eric Tung 1984 - Justin D. Smith 1985 - Whitney Hermandorfer 1987 - Benjamin M. Flowers 1987 Of course, this all assumes there is no Court "reform" and there will still be a Supreme Court to worry about in six years.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-11
Even if a Republican wins the 2028 presidential election, it will be virtually impossible for the Senate to flip red during his term.
2026-11-11 · Reason
Who Is Left On The Bench For 2033? · assertive framing

Claims (11 extracted, 1 hedged)

Even if a Republican wins the 2028 presidential election, it will be virtually impossible for the Senate to flip red during his term. asserted
Senate → win → term
As a result, it is unlikely that any conservatives are appointed to the Supreme Court, or the lower courts, over the next six years. asserted
conservatives → appoint → years
A friend suggested, mostly in jest, that Chief Justice Roberts should resign to allow his seat to be filled during divided government. uncertain
seat → suggest → government
But I suspect the Democrats would just keep the seat open for two, four, even six years. asserted
Democrats → suspect → years
Ed Whelan writes, "The number of current Trump appellate appointees who will be 55 or younger in 2033 will be 18, and only 6 of those will be 50 or younger." asserted
6 → write → those
Here is my (approximate) list of judges who Trump circuit appointees who were born after 1977. asserted
who → bear → 1977
- Andrew Oldham 1978 - Britt Grant 1978 - Patrick J. Bumatay 1978 - Matthew Schwartz 1978 - Eric E. Murphy 1979 - Daniel Bress 1979 - Steven Menashi 1979 - Robert J. Luck 1979 - Andrew L. Brasher 1981 - Emil Bove 1981 - Allison Jones Rushing 1982 - Justin R. Walker 1982 - Rebecca Taibleson 1983 - Joshua Dunlap 1983 - Eric Tung 1984 - Justin D. Smith 1985 - Whitney Hermandorfer 1987 - Benjamin M. Flowers 1987 Of course, this all assumes there is no Court "reform" and there will still be a Supreme Court to worry about in six years. asserted
this → assume → years
I would make one other observation. asserted
I → make → observation
Several of the judges who are accused of "auditioning" will likely age out of the Supreme Court short list by 2033. asserted
who → accuse → 2033
Can we finally exit the audition trap? asserted
we → exit → trap
Let's treat each opinion they write as a reflection of their best judgment, and not some attempt to secure higher office. asserted
they → let → office
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