A nor’easter is expected to lash the I-95 corridor with heavy rain and gusty winds beginning Thursday, while dumping the season’s first significant snow across higher elevations of upstate New York and northern New England into the weekend.
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nor’easter → expect → weekend
A strong ridge of high pressure building over the western US will help colder Canadian air push south into the Northeast while warmer air remains across the West.
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air → build → West
The contrasting air masses will help provide the atmospheric lift and upper-level energy needed to support a strengthening area of low pressure, setting the stage for the late-week storm.
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masses → contrast → storm
Rather than a typical El Niño-driven weather pattern, this setup is being influenced by the polar jet stream.
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setup → drive → stream
A pronounced dip in the jet stream will allow colder air to plunge southward, helping an area of low pressure develop somewhere between the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley before moving toward the East Coast.
Thursday:
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area → allow → Coast
System advances toward the Northeast
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System → advance → Northeast
By Thursday, the area of low pressure began moving toward the Northeast.
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area → begin → Northeast
Showers grazed parts of the I-95 corridor, while Vermont, New Hampshire and portions of upstate New York began to see snow.
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Vermont → graze → snow
By Thursday night, the area of low pressure is expected to approach the New Jersey coast, bringing periods of heavy rain to Philadelphia and New York City.
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area → expect → Philadelphia
The rain will then spread farther inland across Pennsylvania and into upstate New York.
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rain → spread → York
It is expected that travel impacts could escalate late Thursday into Friday as the winds pick up, and the rain becomes heavier.
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rain → expect → Friday
Earlier Thursday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Tornado Watch and Tornado Warnings across portions of New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania.
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Center → issue → Jersey
The NWS said that there was a confirmed tornado in New Castle County, Delaware, and parts of New Jersey experienced tornado-producing storms.
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parts → say → storms
In response to the developing threat, the Storm Prediction Center issued a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk for portions of the Northeast, including Philadelphia and Central New Jersey.
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Center → develop → Philadelphia
The overall threat is limited, with most storms expected to remain below severe levels.
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storms → expect → levels
Cooler air will move into the area and end the thunderstorms quickly.
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air → move → thunderstorms
Nor’easter strengthens along the coast
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Nor’easter → strengthen → coast
By Friday, the area of low pressure is expected to track northward, roughly parallel to the East Coast, with the center of the storm positioned south or near Long Island.
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center → expect → Island
As pressure falls, winds will increase, helping the system take on the characteristics of a more traditional nor’easter.
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system → fall → nor’easter
While this is not expected to become an especially powerful storm, strengthening northeasterly winds could bring periods of unsettled weather to coastal areas.
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winds → expect → areas
As the developing storm moves northward, brisk northerly winds will also pull colder air across the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes.
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winds → develop → Lakes
The sharp contrast between the cold air and warmer lake waters will help trigger a notable lake-effect snow event beginning Friday and potentially lasting into the start of the weekend.
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contrast → help → weekend
Across the Northeast, snow will spread across portions of upstate New York, southern Vermont and New Hampshire.
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snow → spread → York
However, temperatures are expected to hover near freezing in some locations, which could result in wetter, heavier snow and lower-than-average snow ratios.
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which → expect → snow
Precipitation will vary depending on elevation and location, with some areas seeing a mix of rain and snow, while higher elevations are more likely to experience periods of accumulating, heavy, wet snow.
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elevations → vary → snow
The storm is expected to reach its peak intensity Friday night as colder air funnels into the region.
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air → expect → region
According to FOX Forecast Center, the storm’s impacts will largely depend on how quickly the system moves offshore and how much colder air can filter into the region.
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air → accord → region
If the nor’easter is close enough to the coast, it could boost snow totals higher than expected.
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it → boost → totals
If the nor’easter moves farther away from the coast, the snow will end quicker.
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snow → move → coast
However, New York City is expected to dry out by late Friday, while Boston could see periods of rain and gusty winds throughout much of the evening.
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Boston → expect → evening
Snowflakes could begin mixing in closer to the coast, but no significant accumulation is expected.
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accumulation → begin → coast
Where could the heaviest snow fall?
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snow → fall → ?
The highest snow totals are expected across climatologically favored higher elevations, including the White Mountains of New Hampshire and Maine, the Green Mountains of Vermont, the Adirondacks in New York and parts of the Appalachians in West Virginia and Massachusetts.
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totals → expect → Virginia
These areas could see 5 to 8 inches of snow.
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areas → see → snow
Outside higher elevations, snowfall totals will generally remain below 3 inches, with amounts decreasing farther south.
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amounts → remain → inches
Some snow is expected across valley cities.
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snow → expect → cities
This includes cities such as Albany and Binghamton, New York, Burlington, Vermont, Manchester, New Hampshire, and Augusta, Maine.
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This → include → Albany
No snow accumulation is expected across major population centers along the I-95 corridor south of Maine.
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accumulation → expect → Maine
The Great Lakes could see additional lake-effect snow
Beyond the Northeast, portions of the Great Lakes region could also see significant snowfall as persistent winds blow colder air across the warmer lake waters.
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winds → see → waters
According to FOX Weather, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, such as Lake Superior, could see the most substantial accumulations.
uncertain
Peninsula → accord → accumulations
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
