Rising GDP figures may be welcome, but they’re no reason yet to celebrate Labour, writes shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith
uncertain
Griffith → rise → Labour
Often in politics, people look to you to be excessively partisan.
asserted
people → look → you
As someone who came to politics only after a career in business, that isn’t my style.
asserted
that → come → business
I welcome the positives from this week’s GDP figures whilst cautioning ministers trying to take a celebratory lap from a decidedly mixed picture.
asserted
I → welcome → picture
First, let’s consider what this week’s figures show: 0.7 per cent growth in Q3 of 2026, up from 0.5 per cent in Q2.
asserted
figures → let → Q2
Compared to last year, that’s GDP 1.9 per cent higher.
asserted
that → compare → year
This is by no means a boom, nor is it far off from expectations, but in the context of global shocks and rising inflation, it is still welcome.
asserted
it → rise → shocks
The devil is, as ever, in the details which show a deeply uneven picture across the economy.
asserted
which → show → economy
The ONS data shows that big growth drivers have been tech and business services, including IT and computer equipment.
asserted
drivers → show → IT
These benefit from the global AI boom and Britain’s services sector is well placed to catch it, especially because our position outside the EU has kept us safe from overzealous AI regulation.
asserted
position → benefit → regulation
The key then, is to let this winner run.
asserted
winner → let → ?
Last week, the Bank of England estimated that AI-related activity accounts for a staggering fifth of all growth since the start of the year.
asserted
activity → estimate → year
An EU reset that jeopardises that growth by adopting Brussels regulations could be enormously damaging.
uncertain
that → jeopardise → regulations
The worrying trends behind the figures
Now for the less good news: behind the headline figures there lies the continuation of some worrying trends.
asserted
continuation → lie → trends
The resolutely domestic construction sector shrank by 0.7 per cent in Q3, under a government that promised to get Britain building.
asserted
Britain → shrink → government
In fact, construction sector indices have been in negative territory ever since Labour took office.
asserted
Labour → take → office
The Office for Budget Responsibility now expects 190,000 fewer new builds than it forecast as recently as March.
asserted
it → expect → March
It’s a big sector of the economy and one at the sharp end of government policy.
asserted
It → ’ → policy
The macroeconomic picture also shows up an oddity.
asserted
picture → show → oddity
Unpicking the public and private sector components of GDP, it becomes clear that the former has soared while the latter has flagged.
asserted
latter → unpick → GDP
Public sector spending and investment have grown 20 per cent since 2019, while the same components in the private sector have only grown 3.2 per cent.
asserted
components → grow → sector
This is not a wholly new problem, but it is getting worse not better.
asserted
it → get → ?
It is no more sustainable than a hungry snake eating its own tail.
asserted
snake → eat → tail
Brits are still being squeezed
asserted
Brits → squeeze → ?
Finally, in the real world, families are bracing for harder months ahead, with expensive energy bills, inflation remaining high and rising interest rates.
asserted
inflation → brace → bills
The households and businesses that have kept this economy moving are about to be squeezed even further, which is why today is no moment for a victory lap.
asserted
today → keep → lap
The tangible help the economy urgently needs is to cut energy costs by getting Britain drilling again and removing the tangled web of levies and obligations that have held back industry and raised costs for families.
asserted
that → need → families
And to help construction, speed up planning and cut gold plated regulations to get Britain building again.
asserted
Britain → help → regulations
This week’s growth figures remain a testament to the strength and resilience of British businesses.
asserted
figures → remain → businesses
Such growth as there is has come despite, not because of, the government.
asserted
growth → be → government
Just imagine what those businesses could do with a government properly on their side.
uncertain
businesses → imagine → side
The Aporia
