The story of Youngstown, Ohio, is often seen as a story about the past.
asserted
story → see → past
But it’s time to start looking at the Rust Belt city as a warning about the future.
asserted
it → ’ → future
As the artificial intelligence revolution unfolds, debates about its impact on the American economy often hinge on the belief that if the technology creates more jobs than it destroys, it will be a success.
asserted
it → unfold → jobs
But the more important question is often the most overlooked: Who will bear the costs of the AI revolution?
asserted
Who → overlook → revolution
Youngstown is a symbol for what can happen when America stands idly by as market forces inflict abrupt economic transition on communities.
asserted
forces → happen → communities
And the next Youngstown may already be taking shape.
uncertain
Youngstown → take → shape
It may not depend on a steel mill, but on concentrations of jobs increasingly vulnerable to AI.
uncertain
It → depend → AI
From Huntsville, Texas, to State College, Pennsylvania, the industries will be different, but the risk is familiar: jobs transformed or eliminated faster than the community around them can adapt.
asserted
community → transform → them
For a decade, we have taught a Columbia Business School course called Bridging the American Divides.
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we → teach → Divides
The class includes a four-day visit to Youngstown, Ohio, to help students understand what national economic statistics often fail to capture: what happens when a booming economy leaves a community behind.
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economy → include → community
Most Americans know the broad outline of Youngstown’s decades-long story.
asserted
Americans → know → story
Once a proud and prosperous center of American steelmaking, its economic foundation collapsed as changes in steel production and foreign competition made much of the city’s industry uncompetitive.
asserted
much → collapse → industry
On “Black Monday” in 1977, Youngstown Sheet & Tube announced the closure of its Campbell Works, eliminating thousands of jobs overnight.
asserted
Sheet → announce → jobs
Tens of thousands more disappeared in the years that followed.
asserted
that → disappear → years
Youngstown’s population, which was over 120,000 at that time, has since fallen to fewer than 60,000 today.
asserted
which → fall → 60,000
While this shift hurt workers in Youngstown, many others benefited.
asserted
others → hurt → Youngstown
From the perspective of the national economy, technological progress and global competition produced substantial benefits.
asserted
progress → produce → benefits
As steel became less expensive, American automobile manufacturers and other importers of steel became more profitable and hired more workers.
asserted
manufacturers → become → workers
Consumers paid lower prices.
asserted
Consumers → pay → prices
And new industries and employment emerged in other American communities.
asserted
industries → emerge → communities
At the time, many economists highlighted those gains for the country.
asserted
economists → highlight → country
But they largely missed something equally important: the costs were not spread across America.
asserted
costs → miss → America
They were concentrated among specific workers, families, and communities.
asserted
They → concentrate → workers
Over the past decade, our students have met former steelworkers, entrepreneurs, educators, nonprofit leaders, clergy, journalists, union heads, and local officials in Youngstown.
asserted
students → meet → Youngstown
They have seen that when a dominant industry in a community disappears, what is lost extends far beyond paychecks.
asserted
lost → see → paychecks
Jobs disappear, but so do tax revenues, local businesses, and confidence in the future.
asserted
revenues → disappear → future
Neighborhoods can become ravaged by crime and drugs.
asserted
Neighborhoods → ravage → crime
Young people typically leave.
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people → leave → ?
Those who remain tend to not only lose employment but also identity and purpose.
asserted
who → remain → employment
Distrust grows toward political, economic, and educational institutions that seem unable or unwilling to help.
asserted
that → grow → institutions
The result: community and social bonds are diminished.
asserted
bonds → diminish → ?
Artificial intelligence promises another economic leap in increased productivity and lower costs.
asserted
intelligence → promise → productivity
As AI reshapes employment in customer service, accounting, software, legal support, insurance processing, and other fields, the consequences will be felt disproportionately in communities whose employment is concentrated in those occupations.
asserted
employment → reshape → occupations
A Brookings report finds “the concentration of exposed and vulnerable workers is greatest in smaller metro areas” like Laramie, Wyoming, Huntsville, Texas, and Stillwater, Oklahoma.
asserted
concentration → find → Laramie
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia identifies New Jersey’s Trenton-Princeton metropolitan area and State College, Pennsylvania, as highly exposed.
asserted
Bank → identify → area
MIT’s AI Labor Map identifies hundreds of cities with “economic exposure” from Tallahassee, Florida, to Boulder, Colorado.
asserted
Map → identify → Boulder
We can also expect new industries to emerge.
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industries → expect → ?
Different jobs will be created in other places.
asserted
jobs → create → places
But history shows that new opportunities do not necessarily reach the workers and communities that lose jobs.
asserted
that → show → jobs
If jobs transfer to new places, some people may not be able to move with them—they have mortgages, aging parents, children in school, social networks, and identities rooted in place.
uncertain
they → transfer → place
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
