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US Treasury warns against rate hikes during US-Iran war energy ‘shock’

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Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, November 13). US Treasury warns against rate hikes during US-Iran war energy ‘shock’. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/11/13/us-treasury-warns-against-rate-hikes-during-us-iran-war-energy-shock?traffic_source=rss

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Al Jazeera · collected 2026-11-13 · by Al Jazeera Staff

Quick Summary

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the Federal Reserve to avoid significant interest rate hikes during the current energy supply shock caused by the US-led conflict with Iran. While the Fed currently holds rates between 3.75 and 4 percent, CME FedWatch forecasts an 89.4 percent chance of a rate increase to 4.00–4.25 percent at the December 9 meeting. Bessent argues that the Fed should focus on future outlooks rather than "noisy numbers" like the 20.4 percent year-over-year increase in energy prices seen in September. This report highlights a conflict of perspective, as Bessent advises caution despite a strong jobs report adding 165,000 positions in October and Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaling support for a potential quarter-point or 50-basis-point hike.
Written by AI on 2026-11-13, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 4% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Times of India
Leans right Hedges 4 of 19 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles describe different events: one about Bessent moving to a military base due to threats and the other about his warnings against rate hikes during the US-Iran conflict.”
South China Morning Post
Hedges 0 of 6 claims Outlet record 62/100
“Article A describes Bessent's relocation to a military base due to threats, while Article B discusses Bessent's warning against interest rate hikes during the US-Iran conflict. Although both articles mention Bessent's move to a military base, they describe different events occurring at different times.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles describe different aspects of the situation involving the US Treasury Secretary: one focuses on the threat and relocation of the Secretary for safety, while the other reports on the Secretary's economic warnings during the conflict.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 1 of 6 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A discusses the movement of Treasury Secretary Bessent to a military base due to threats from Iran, while Article B reports on Bessent's comments about interest rates and energy supply shock during the US-Iran conflict, referencing but not detailing his relocation.”
New York Post
Leans right Hedges 2 of 16 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different aspects of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's actions and statements, but not the same specific incident or time. Article A focuses on his warning against rate hikes due to energy supply shock, while Article B covers his response to death threats and his move to a military base.”
Just The News
Leans right Hedges 1 of 9 claims Outlet record 94/100
“While both articles mention Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his move to a military base due to Iranian threats, Article B focuses on Bessent's comments about the Federal Reserve and interest rates, not the specific event of his relocation.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 2 of 42 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A describes the relocation of Scott Bessent to a military base due to threats from Iran, while Article B mentions this relocation but focuses on Bessent's warning about interest rates and the energy supply shock during the US-Iran conflict. These are different specific events, though related.”

Story

US Treasury warns against rate hikes during US-Iran war
Other · 1 article(s) covering the same event.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
27
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
1 of 27 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
60/100
Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Other
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-13 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Al Jazeera · 5704 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Al Jazeera Staff
1075 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Al Jazeera Staff
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 1075 articles by Al Jazeera Staff →

Topics

Fed Iran Treasury US Treasury the Federal Reserve

Subjects

Fed ORG · 10× Iran GPE · 6× Bessent PERSON · 5× Treasury ORG · 2× the Federal Reserve ORG · 2× 4US GPE · 1× CNBC ORG · 1× Indian NORP · 1× Scott Bessent PERSON · 1× US Treasury ORG · 1×

Narrative

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he planned to support a quarter-point increase at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting unless the core consumer price index — one of the central bank’s key measures for assessing the rate of inflation — came in at 0.3 percent or more.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-13
CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, forecasts an 89.4 percent chance that rates will be raised to 4.00–4.25 percent at the next meeting, scheduled for December 9.

Claims (27 extracted, 1 hedged)

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called on the Federal Reserve not to hike interest rates because of an “energy supply shock” tied to the US-led conflict with Iran. asserted
Bessent → call → Iran
“I think the Fed should understand that this is an energy supply shock,” while the underlying US economy is very strong, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC on Friday. asserted
Bessent → think → Friday
Recommended Stories list of 4 items- list 1 of 4US sanctions Indian and Turkish firms accused of helping Iran - list 2 of 4US Treasury sanctions eight Canadian money exchange firms over Iran ties - list 3 of 4US asserted
Treasury → accuse → ties
Treasury chief Bessent moved to military base after ‘Iranian threats’ - list 4 of 4Bessent’s relocation: From US to EU, is Iran bringing war to Western soil? asserted
Iran → move → soil
“So I think that to hike too much into an energy supply shock when it’s coming down, these are very noisy numbers,” he said. asserted
he → think → shock
“The Fed’s supposed to look into the future, not look in the rearview mirror. asserted
Fed → suppose → mirror
The central bank opted to maintain interest rates during its last policy meeting, leaving them at 3.75 to 4 percent. asserted
bank → opt → percent
CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, forecasts an 89.4 percent chance that rates will be raised to 4.00–4.25 percent at the next meeting, scheduled for December 9. asserted
rates → track → December
Despite pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve has held them steady amid inflationary pressures stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran. asserted
Reserve → cut → Iran
Since the conflict began, the Fed has maintained rates five times and raised them once. asserted
Fed → begin → them
Much of that pressure has come from rising energy prices. asserted
Much → come → prices
By September, energy prices had climbed 20.4 percent year over year. asserted
prices → climb → year
Although October’s energy price data has since been released, the Labour Department was unable to collect data in October 2025 because of last year’s government shutdown. asserted
Department → release → shutdown
As a result, it cannot provide a year-over-year comparison for October 2026. asserted
it → provide → October
Bessent’s remarks come amid a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, which bolsters the case for rate hikes. asserted
which → come → hikes
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, according to the Labour Department’s release last Friday. uncertain
economy → add → release
“I’m not going to tell the Fed what to do. asserted
I → go → what
I am going to say they should have an open mind,” Bessent said. asserted
Bessent → go → mind
The Fed made three rate cuts over the same period last year, he noted. asserted
he → make → period
“And now to reverse just based on an energy supply shock, a reversal in a dramatic way isn’t something that I would do if I were on the Fed. asserted
I → reverse → Fed
But I’m not on the Fed.” asserted
I → ’m → Fed
Feeling the cost Bessent’s remarks come as some top Fed officials are pushing for the opposite. asserted
officials → feel → opposite
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he planned to support a quarter-point increase at the Fed’s December 8-9 meeting unless the core consumer price index — one of the central bank’s key measures for assessing the rate of inflation — came in at 0.3 percent or more. asserted
he → say → percent
“In that case, I believe a 50-basis-point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting,” he said at a conference in London hosted by King’s Business School and the Money Macro and Finance Society. asserted
he → believe → School
The CPI report subsequently came out, showing a 0.4 percent monthly increase. asserted
report → come → increase
Consumers are feeling the rising costs at the petrol pump, as prices are declining but remain high. asserted
prices → feel → pump
The average price for a gallon of petrol is $3.87 ($1.02 per litre), down from $4.34 ($1.14 per litre)this time a month ago, but still well above the $2.98 ($0.79 per litre) price recorded on February 28, when the US and Israel first struck Iran. asserted
US → record → Iran
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