President Donald Trump has had a lot to say about his thinking on the way ahead in the Iran war since Republicans were trounced in last week’s midterm elections.
asserted
Republicans → have → elections
In exchanges with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts since Election Day, he’s somehow managed to back away from carrying out additional strikes while also backing away from the prospect of additional talks with the Islamic Republic’s negotiators on ending the 8-month-old conflict.
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he → manage → conflict
The president acknowledged on the day after the midterms that the war and the global economic tumult it’s caused were partly to blame for Republicans’ electoral losses, while maintaining it was the right thing to do.
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it → acknowledge → losses
Then, at the start of this week, he huddled with Qatar’s prime minister at the White House and afterward told reporters that he believed it was highly unlikely he’d need to order new major strikes on Iran, declaring that the war “militarily is effectively over.”
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war → huddle → Iran
But by Thursday, he was again raising questions about whether he needed to rush to find an endgame.
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he → raise → endgame
He declared that the U.S. no longer needs a deal with Tehran and brusquely directed Vice President JD Vance — who served as his chief negotiator in earlier peace talks with Iran — to shift his attention to the administration’s domestic anti-fraud campaign.
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who → declare → campaign
All the while, Trump warned Iran that the U.S. military is “locked and loaded” and keeping an eye on Pickaxe Mountain, a facility linked to Iran’s nuclear program, for signs of activity.
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military → warn → activity
“If something does not work out, I would not hesitate” to act, Trump told conservative broadcaster Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.
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Trump → work → Thursday
Iran war will shadow Trump during his trip to Asia
Trump’s tonal shifts have only added to the uncertainty about what comes next in a war in which America’s allies were not consulted before it was started but nonetheless struggle to deal with its economic ramifications.
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it → shadow → ramifications
“President Trump is now acting like an arsonist who has set ablaze our foreign policy,” Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey said in an interview Friday on the sidelines of the Democrats’ postelection gathering in Denver.
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Booker → act → Denver
“And now he just wants to walk away.”
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he → want → ?
The president’s ambiguous positioning on the war is expected to loom large during a visit next week to the Philippines and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen.
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positioning → expect → Shenzhen
While in Shenzhen, Trump will hold an unprecedented three-way summit with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
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Trump → hold → Jinping
Trump is expected to discuss Iran and the three powers’ nuclear stockpiles with Xi and Putin.
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Trump → expect → Xi
The White House declined to comment directly to queries on Trump’s postelection rhetoric on Iran.
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House → decline → Iran
But Secretary of State Marco Rubio underscored that Trump’s approach is leading to the Iranian economy collapsing.
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economy → underscore → State
“The economic pain that we are inflicting on that regime is so great that there’s no need for military action because we’ve weakened them so much,” Rubio said in a Friday evening speech to the Federalist Society.
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Rubio → inflict → Society
Mideast diplomats try to make sense of Trump’s position
Chief mediator Qatar continues to try to negotiate an interim agreement that would restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for the flow of oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf to global markets, while leaving open options for further discussions between the U.S. and Iran.
But those efforts are now clouded by uncertainty following Trump’s shifting — and sometimes contradictory — comments, according to two Middle East diplomats familiar with the process.
uncertain
efforts → try → process
The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the situation had appeared to be on the right track earlier this week after Qatar’s prime minister met with Trump.
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minister → speak → Trump
But Trump’s social media post Thursday declaring that the U.S. doesn’t need a deal with Iran and directing Vance “to focus his complete and total attention” on his anti-fraud campaign has created a sense of limbo.
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U.S. → declare → limbo
One of the diplomats said the post raised questions about why Trump appeared to be sidelining Vance, who was skeptical about launching the war but ultimately supported Trump.
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who → say → Trump
Trump’s post came as Vance had been weighing a possible reengagement with senior Iranian negotiators, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
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who → come → anonymity
The president posted his message calling on Vance to steer away from Iran negotiations the morning after The Wall Street Journal reported Vance was thinking about resuming talks.
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Vance → post → talks
Trump — who had been aware of Vance’s deliberations — believed the Iranians weren’t acting in good faith, the person added.
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person → believe → faith
Trump is also increasingly confident that he can credibly declare that he’s achieved his military objectives in the war.
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he → declare → war
But traversing the Strait of Hormuz remains treacherous.
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traversing → traverse → Hormuz
The United Nations reports October had the highest number of incidents against commercial ships in the contested waters since February.
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October → report → February
Still, Trump believes with oil shipments through the strait reaching near-prewar levels, he could potentially leave it to Gulf countries to negotiate a deal with the Iranians on governing the critical waterway, the person said.
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person → believe → waterway
The other regional diplomat described the push for peace as falling into a holding pattern as people await clarification from the White House on Trump’s intentions.
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people → describe → intentions
That diplomat added it was not entirely clear to mediators or the Iranians if Trump’s comments meant he was abandoning a negotiated agreement or was just posturing after the congressional midterm elections that cost his Republican Party control of Congress.
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that → add → Congress
Rubio insists US hasn’t given up on mediation efforts
Iran remains unwilling to engage in negotiations over its nuclear program until the U.S. agrees to several core conditions that Iran has been demanding be part of any ceasefire agreement.
Differences with Iran over its nuclear activities remain the thorniest issue and one that Trump insists must be resolved as part of any deal meant to end the war.
Tehran’s rhetoric has hardly cooled.
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rhetoric → insist → war
Iran’s deputy U.N. ambassador Gholamhossein Darzi told the United Nations Security Council on Friday that Iran “has never closed the door to diplomacy.”
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Iran → tell → diplomacy
But he warned that should the U.S. or Israel return to bombing, his country would offer “an immediate and decisive response.”
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country → warn → response
Rubio earlier this week stressed that the U.S. is not opposed to mediators continuing their efforts.
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mediators → stress → efforts
“If there’s a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it,” Rubio said.
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Rubio → ’ → it
“But it’s not going to be a stupid deal.
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it → go → ?
It’s not going to be a bad deal.”
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It → go → ?
Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expects the status quo to persist for some time, with the U.S. and Iran locked in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. continuing its monthslong naval blockade that’s curbing the flow of Iranian crude to the global market.
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that → say → market
Singh said the American strategy of squeezing Iran economically is a far more attractive option for Trump than military escalation or making concessions to Tehran.
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strategy → say → Tehran
He also suggested Trump could always reverse his position on Vance engaging with Iranians if the president finds the Iranians are ready to seriously negotiate.
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Iranians → suggest → Iranians
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
