The trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the United States that took place in Abu Dhabi this week may not lead to a rapid breakthrough, but they clearly outline the trajectory of a conflict that might, after all, be nearing its end.
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that → take → end
If anything illustrates the political and emotional rift the two sides are yet to bridge, it is President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s remarks in Copenhagen this week, in which he lamented that Russian leader Vladimir Putin was still alive.
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Putin → illustrate → which
Ukraine’s harsh reality, however, is pushing him towards an unsavoury compromise with his arch-enemy.
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reality → push → enemy
Kyiv was compelled to enter the talks at the most disadvantageous moment, when it has few means to counter devastating Russian air strikes that damage its key industries and cripple essential infrastructure in major cities.
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that → compel → cities
One of Ukraine’s top negotiators, David Arakhamia, who leads Zelenskyy’s parliamentary faction, described the negotiations as among the most difficult he had participated in since 2022.
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he → lead → 2022
He said the Russians had arrived with very strict instructions and that it had been difficult to soften the tone of the discussions.
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it → say → discussions
His assessment confirms that Russia sees itself as well equipped to negotiate from a position of force.
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itself → confirm → force
Moscow, meanwhile, expressed optimism about the outcome.
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Moscow → express → outcome
Putin’s aide, Vladimir Medinsky, said the talks had brought the two countries closer to peace.
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talks → say → peace
Even Arakhamia said there was momentum towards reaching a solution before the end of the year.
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Arakhamia → say → year
That optimism, it needs to be noted, comes without any signs of Russia changing its position on the contours of the agreement.
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Russia → need → agreement
Just as it has for years, the Kremlin insists on a genuinely neutral, demilitarised Ukraine which honours the rights of its Russian-speaking population.
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which → insist → population
If all this comes as a nasty surprise to many in the West, that’s because for most of this year, Western politicians and the mainstream media kept insisting that the tide of war was turning and that Ukraine was getting the upper hand.
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Ukraine → come → hand
Their optimism was fuelled by Ukrainian long-range strikes targeting Russian oil refineries as well as by the snail’s pace of Russian advances on the battlefield.
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optimism → fuel → battlefield
As late as September, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that “in all but name, Russia has already lost the war”.
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Russia → say → war
Around the same time, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said Russia was not doing well in Ukraine.
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Russia → say → Ukraine
When NATO leaders convened for the Ankara summit in July, it seemed that even US President Donald Trump had bought into the idea that Ukraine had the battlefield advantage.
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Ukraine → convene → advantage
But Russia responded to Ukraine’s surge, backed up by European funds and US intelligence-sharing, with round-the-clock air strikes that are bringing Ukraine close to its pain barrier.
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that → respond → barrier
Moscow’s message was cruel: any damage Ukraine and the West might inflict on Russia would be met with epic devastation in Ukraine, from which it would take decades to recover.
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it → inflict → decades
The coming winter spells nationwide humanitarian disaster.
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winter → come → disaster
Russian strikes on energy infrastructure have disrupted electricity and central heating supplies.
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strikes → disrupt → supplies
Millions of Ukrainians, particularly in major cities, live in apartment blocks dependent on central heating, without which their homes can become virtually unliveable.
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homes → live → which
Generators can provide temporary power, but their use is making the cost of war enormous for Ukraine and Western taxpayers who fund its war effort.
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who → provide → effort
It is these dire circumstances, rather than pressure from Trump’s administration, that have forced Ukraine to enter the talks.
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that → force → talks
Zelenskyy would have waited at least until the spring had he not felt so pressed.
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he → wait → spring
Ukraine’s surge has failed to shift Moscow’s peace conditions one inch.
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surge → fail → conditions
Meanwhile, the Western perception of this war’s realities has undergone a considerable transformation.
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perception → undergo → transformation
There are two major signs of the shifting landscape which directly affect the agenda of the Abu Dhabi negotiations.
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which → be → negotiations
For the first time since the start of the war, a larger part of the Western establishment appears to be ready to discuss Europe’s post-war security architecture.
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part → appear → architecture
The subject was first broached by US negotiator Jared Kushner, causing outrage in the warmongering camp.
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subject → broach → camp
But Medinsky said after the Abu Dhabi talks that it was the central issue on the agenda.
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it → say → agenda
This topic harks back to the agenda which Moscow brought to the table in December 2021, a few months before the all-out invasion.
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Moscow → hark → invasion
It did so after the US and Ukraine signed a charter on strategic partnership which may have served as the decisive trigger for Putin’s decision to invade.
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which → do → decision
The very idea of discussing Europe’s security architecture with Moscow became a strict taboo in the West for over four years, but clearly it is not any more.
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it → discuss → years
Curiously, this broad and vital topic was not the main sticking point at the talks, according to Kushner, who said the territorial issue was the hardest.
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issue → accord → Kushner
Moscow has long insisted that Ukrainian forces should withdraw from the remaining part of the Donetsk region for talks to succeed.
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talks → insist → region
But Moscow’s opposition to territorial compromise might be an act of deception aimed at achieving maximum gain on overarching geopolitical issues it considers really vital.
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it → aim → issues
At the end of the day, it is only propagandist symbolism that prompts the Kremlin to claim Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
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that → prompt → Sloviansk
The other sign of change is European governments trying to jump on the bandwagon of peace talks even as this exposes a rift between hardliners, like the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, and pragmatists who believe compromise is unavoidable.
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compromise → try → chief
The latter most prominently include Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, who held a lengthy telephone call with Putin on October 27, ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks, with discreet consent from parts of the EU leadership.
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who → include → leadership
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
