Kyiv, Ukraine – Looking like a tiny desktop tower with wing-like solar panels, the Obria Nano satellite is a small step that could herald a giant leap for Ukraine’s military.
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that → look → military
Launched by Himera, a Ukrainian company known for ergonomic military radios, and GomSpace, a Danish small-satellite manufacturer, the first Obria Nano could eventually grow into Kyiv’s own constellation of military satellites, its creators hope.
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creators → launch → satellites
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The nanosatellite marks Ukraine’s “first historical step toward establishing resilient and sovereign satellite communications capabilities,” the company said on October 27, almost four weeks after the Obria Nano had reached orbit.
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Nano → mark → orbit
In mid-October, Kyiv also signed up two Finnish companies, the Nokia telecoms giant and the ICEYE space startup that owns a “self-illuminating” radar technology for obtaining high-resolution satellite imagery in any weather, to look into developing a network of military satellites.
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that → sign → satellites
Kyiv’s efforts are rooted in one concern – the nearly total dependence of Ukraine’s military communications on SpaceX, Elon Musk’s satellite communications giant that operates Starlink, a constellation of more than 10,000 low-orbit satellites.
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that → root → satellites
On Thursday, the speeds of Starlink and Starshield, its military component operated by the Pentagon, were limited for Ukraine, leading to “significant disruptions” of their operation along the front line, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
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Zelenskyy → operate → line
Before this, Starlink was also disrupted last month.
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Starlink → disrupt → this
Kyiv realises that “it’s possible to create an absolutely new system, but it will take several years,” Anatoly Zak, a US-based space expert, told Al Jazeera.
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Zak → realise → Jazeera
Since 2022, Ukraine developed a love-and-hate relationship with Musk, his volatility, shifting loyalties and political demands.
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Ukraine → develop → Musk
“Musk’s mood swings play a significant role,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, told Al Jazeera.
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Fesenko → play → Jazeera
“There were times when Musk helped Ukraine, and times of very negative reactions.”
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Musk → be → reactions
Ukrainians hailed Musk’s decision to provide Starlink services and modems to Ukraine free of charge.
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Ukrainians → hail → charge
The military, hospitals and government agencies operating critical infrastructure quickly made a backbone of their communications.
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military → operate → communications
But in late 2022, Musk refused to activate Starlink coverage in Russia-occupied areas, slowing down or stopping Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive.
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Musk → refuse → counteroffensive
The world’s wealthiest man also said that Kyiv should remain “politically neutral” in the future, officially cede Crimea to Moscow and conduct United Nations-supervised referendums on Russia-occupied territories.
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Kyiv → say → territories
“If you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine and you will see it all for yourself,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in response.
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Zelenskyy → want → response
“And then you will tell me how to end this war, who started it and when it can be ended.”
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it → tell → it
Meanwhile, Russia has reportedly smuggled thousands of Starlink terminals and used them for comms and drone attacks.
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Russia → smuggle → attacks
This February, Musk put an end to the practice by allowing only certified modems to operate in Ukraine.
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modems → put → Ukraine
Kyiv’s attempts to find an alternative to Starlink followed the October 14-24 speed limits for Ukrainian drones imposed without prior warning by Starlink and Starshield.
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attempts → find → Starlink
Drones and drone interceptors moving faster than 60km/h (37mph) lost signal and could no longer reach their targets.
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Drones → move → targets
Musk accused the Pentagon of limiting the speed and admitted that the decision was his only after The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk had personally authorised the slowdown.
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Musk → accuse → slowdown
Both Musk and Kyiv realise that Starlink and Starshield are the Ukrainian military’s survival tool.
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Starlink → realise → ?
When it comes to his highly publicised position towards Ukraine, Musk has to balance his own emotional outbursts and the interests of SpaceX, the crown jewel of his business empire that comprises two-fifths of his net worth, analyst Fesenko said.
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Fesenko → come → worth
“If he tries to throw Ukraine under the bus, it may work as very negative advertising for his business, including the Starlink system,” Fesenko said.
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Fesenko → try → system
Russia’s bid to create military satellites
Another factor is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s calculated flattery towards Musk – on October 28, he called him a “real genius”.
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he → create → him
“Putin apparently wants to use the methods he’s used towards [US President Donald] Trump – flattery, unlimited flattery,” Fesenko said.
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Fesenko → want → Trump
Putin mentioned Musk while talking about Russia’s attempts to create its own version of Starlink.
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Putin → mention → Starlink
“We are in close contact with our American partners – including Mr Musk – because it’s very important, in orbit, not to get in each other’s way and to maintain a certain level of discipline and order,” Putin said.
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Putin → include → discipline
The military satellites for the upcoming Rassvet (Dawn) constellation turned out to be Qianfan satellites, which are similar to first-generation Starlink satellites and manufactured in China.
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which → turn → China
Bureau 1440, a Kremlin-controlled space company that runs the Rassvet system, plans to have 900 satellites in orbit by 2035.
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that → control → 2035
In August, the Institute for the Study of War, an international military think tank, claimed that more than a third of Rassvet satellites failed to reach “sustainable operational altitudes”.
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third → claim → altitudes
By early November, Moscow lost two of the 32 Rassvet 3 satellites launched in the past seven months.
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Moscow → lose → months
The second satellite that burned in the Earth’s atmosphere on November 1, failed to launch its propulsion to correct its position, according to The Defence Express, a Ukrainian military publication.
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that → burn → Express
Ukraine can also try negotiating a switch to Starlink’s rivals, but they are smaller and less effective.
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they → try → rivals
The US-based Iridium has 66 satellites flying at about 800km (497 miles) above Earth.
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Iridium → base → Earth
OneWeb, operated by the French Eutelsat company, has up to 650 satellites that orbit the Earth at 1,200 kilometres (746 miles).
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that → operate → kilometres
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
