The 2028 presidential election seems far away.
asserted
election → seem → ?
The midterm ballots are barely counted, and a long list of would-be candidates is already elbowing for a lane in a campaign that, by Election Day, will feel like it started during the Truman administration.
asserted
it → count → administration
Two years before anyone casts a ballot, Kalshi's 2028 markets have already drawn nearly half a billion dollars in trading.
asserted
markets → cast → trading
While prediction markets have an excellent long-term record of accuracy, this far from an election, you can't expect surgical precision.
asserted
you → have → precision
What the markets can show us is who's trading like a blue chip, who's stuck in the middle, and whose campaign feels like a penny stock that needs a miracle rally to be competitive.
asserted
that → show → rally
So let's look ahead with a way-too-early presidential market report, starting at the top.
asserted
's → let → top
The blue chips
What if I told you the Democratic front-runner for 2028 is a man a third of Democrats have never heard of?
asserted
third → tell → Democrats
That's what a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found when it comes to Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, and plenty of other Americans are drawing a blank too.
asserted
plenty → find → blank
Still, a Democrat who wins Georgia by 18 points, in a state President Trump carried in 2024, doesn’t stay anonymous for long.
asserted
Trump → win → 2024
Kalshi gives him a 26% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, the best in the field.
asserted
Kalshi → give → field
Not bad for a guy much of his own party couldn't pick out of a lineup.
asserted
much → pick → lineup
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads the pack, with a 33% chance of winning the nomination but only a 12% chance of winning the presidency.
asserted
Vance → lead → presidency
That gap fits what election analyst Nate Silver calls the VP curse.
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Silver → fit → what
Vice presidents whose bosses are underwater in the polls tend to win their party’s nomination, then lose in November.
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bosses → tend → November
Then again, Vance has been underestimated before, and he seems to be at his best in high-leverage situations.
asserted
he → underestimate → situations
Both men have also hinted they might not run at all.
uncertain
they → hint → ?
Coming from politicians, that promise has roughly the credibility of a vow of celibacy from Jensen Huang.
asserted
promise → come → Huang
The mid-caps
California Gov. Gavin Newsom looked like a blue chip a year ago.
asserted
Newsom → look → chip
His chance of winning the Democratic nomination has since cratered from 37% to about 12%.
asserted
chance → win → %
He leaves office in January, which frees him up for a full-time campaign and gives even more airtime to a man who has never been accused of camera shyness.
asserted
who → leave → shyness
Whether voters want that is another question.
asserted
want → want → that
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits around 13% to win the Democratic nomination.
asserted
Cortez → sit → nomination
The bigger question is which race she's running in.
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she → run → race
Traders actually think she's more likely to run for the Senate than for president.
asserted
she → think → president
Either way, somebody is going to claim the democratic socialist lane.
uncertain
somebody → go → lane
If it's not her, maybe Bernie Sanders takes a third crack at it.
asserted
Sanders → take → it
Like Ocasio-Cortez, Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces a which-job question.
asserted
Rubio → face → question
He's at 18% to win the Republican nomination, and the market sees him as just as likely to be the running mate as the nominee.
asserted
market → win → nominee
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who ran in 2024 and also leaves office in January, has been the biggest riser in the Republican market since the midterms.
asserted
who → run → midterms
He was under 5% to win the nomination before the votes were counted and is now at 17%, nipping at Rubio's heels.
asserted
votes → win → heels
The penny stocks
Then come the penny stocks.
asserted
stocks → come → stocks
Former Vice President Kamala Harris lands here too, a somewhat embarrassing showing for the woman at the top of the ticket two years ago.
asserted
Harris → land → ticket
If you're shopping the bargain bin, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore at 2.2% and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer at 0.7% might be in your wheelhouse.
uncertain
Moore → shop → wheelhouse
On the Republican side, the penny stocks include Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
asserted
stocks → include → Cruz
And somewhere in that mix is President Donald Trump, who I wouldn't put past publicly flirting with a constitutionally prohibited third run just to annoy the media.
asserted
I → put → media
Many of these names won’t make it to the first primary.
asserted
Many → make → primary
That’s the fun of watching these markets this early: prices will move with every speech, stumble and suspiciously timed book tour between now and then.
asserted
prices → ’ → speech
A few of these stocks will have soared, and plenty will have been quietly delisted.
asserted
plenty → soar → stocks
The Aporia
