The reality of so-called "Neets" in the UK - young people who haven't got jobs, aren't studying or being trained up - has seen hundreds upon hundreds of thousands in their late teens or early-20s struggle to find a decent future for well over a decade.
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thousands → call → decade
It costs the taxpayer billions.
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It → cost → billions
And the human cost is variously described as a disaster, a national shame, even a moral crisis.
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cost → describe → disaster
When the phrase Neet was first coined by Tony Blair's Downing Street in 1999, the focus was on 170,000 or so teenagers who were not in education, employment or training.
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who → coin → education
After many attempts at solving the problem, add in a pandemic and years of a sluggish economy, it's acute - with nearly a million under-25s in that situation.
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it → solve → situation
A tome full of proposals to try and fix it once and for all will be published on Tuesday, after a year in the making.
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tome → try → making
How the government reacts will test its appetite and capacity for radical change, and the prime minister's real, not rhetorical, hunger for tricky political arguments.
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reacts → react → arguments
The canny smooth talker behind the huge review, former Labour MP Alan Milburn, wants you to know that Andy Burnham knows exactly what's coming.
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what → want → review
Speaking to me in Liverpool, where in Merseyside 14.5% of 16 to 24-year-olds are unemployed,, external he tells me: "All the way through, the prime minister, the chancellor, all the ministers, they know what's going on.
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what → speak → me
It won't be a surprise to them when this is launched and that gives it a fighting chance of actually being implemented.
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that → launch → chance
On top of a plan to stop under-25s claiming the main sickness and disability benefits, Milburn will argue for a dramatic shift in the balance of what the taxpayer spends on benefits for young people compared to what is spent on support to help them get into work.
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them → stop → work
He says the amount spent on young people's benefits is 25 times as much as that on employment support - and he wants to shift it to a drastically different two to one.
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he → say → one
He won't put specific numbers on it yet, but accepts openly that means a significant number of young people losing their benefits or facing cuts.
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that → put → cuts
But that would come with a chunky expansion of the amount of further education, training, health support and likely jobs subsidised by the taxpayer too.
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that → come → taxpayer
And to make sure that government gets really serious about improving the mess, Milburn is asking for a new law that would give young people a guarantee of help and support - a job, an apprenticeship, a training place, or perhaps health treatment so they are able to work - an "opportunity guarantee".
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they → make → help
He told me he won't fall into the "elephant's trap", where a feisty teenager could sue the prime minister if they didn't get the job they fancied.
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they → tell → job
But the idea is to put a legal duty on the authorities in a similar vein to councils' obligation to look after children in care, or to provide accommodation or advice to homeless people.
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idea → put → people
Westminster jargon often describes earnest sets of recommendations published in reports like this as "wide-ranging".
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jargon → describe → this
This review genuinely is, arguing for changes not just in welfare, but in the health and education systems.
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review → argue → systems
It's a real expansion of the state's involvement in the next generation, from one of the Blairites still standing, with the expensive Paul Smith knitwear to match.
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It → stand → knitwear
He is not the first government veteran nor is Burnham the first PM, to try to sort out this problem.
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Burnham → try → problem
But what Milburn and his allies say is different this time round is they're pushing for a whole new system that's permanent, not just another scheme that gets introduced by one secretary of state, then is dropped or scrapped by the next one that turns up.
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that → say → one
And the notion of a legal guarantee is designed to make the state, likely through local councils or mayors, take responsibility for making sure young people have something useful to do when they emerge from school – for good.
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they → design → school
The recommendations apply to the whole UK, but the precise way the powers might be used in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be worked out when it gets to the finer details of draft laws.
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it → apply → laws
The scale of the practical challenge can be seen from space.
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scale → see → space
New research from the Lib Dems this weekend suggests that if nothing is done, the number of Neets would hit 1.26 million by 2031.
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number → suggest → 2031
And Milburn himself cites figures that puts the cost of the issue at £22bn a year.
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that → cite → 22bn
No politician would argue for the status quo.
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politician → argue → quo
But agreement that something must be done doesn't automatically translate into consensus over what that something is.
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something → do → consensus
For all Milburn's talk of grand ambition – his plans will not, any time soon, make much difference to the ballooning costs to welfare.
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plans → make → welfare
His plan will take as long as a decade before making a real dent in the benefits bill.
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plan → take → bill
And it will require taxpayers' cash at the start, although not the £6bn guesstimates that have done the rounds.
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that → require → rounds
And he says plainly there are many young people who are capable of working but don't, although tiptoes carefully around any accusations that some take advantage of the system, saying he's convinced the vast majority of young people do want to work.
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majority → say → people
The Conservatives and Reform have both put saving tens of billions from the welfare bill, and fast, at the top of their list.
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Conservatives → put → list
The Tories said Milburn was right that benefits must be cut - but that "unlike Labour, our plan goes to the root of the problem" including by halving employer National Insurance for young people and creating 100,000 new apprenticeships.
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plan → say → apprenticeships
Reform said the review "is pointless unless we get action from Burnham straight away" and it cannot be "another 10 years before the youth benefits bill comes down."
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bill → say → Burnham
Milburn and the government can expect sustained criticism that it's not acceptable the plans would take so long to start cutting the enormous bill for the taxpayer.
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plans → expect → taxpayer
There is no question the expected increases in benefit payments are absolutely eye-watering.
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increases → be → payments
The opposition from that quarter, and indeed from the Greens on the left arguing already that what they have seen so far is "cruel", is entirely predictable to Downing Street.
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seen → argue → Street
What's harder to read, and therefore more difficult to contend with, is how Labour MPs will respond.
Keir Starmer tried, and painfully failed to make changes to welfare, sabotaging his own authority when he backed down in the face of backbenchers.
That's why Pat McFadden, the welfare secretary, has spent hours and hours talking to Labour MPs in the last year, trying to patiently make the case for this plan.
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McFadden → read → plan
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
