The Aporia · SNP ministers warned public sector savings hard to achieve without compulsory redundancies

SNP ministers warned public sector savings hard to achieve without compulsory redundancies

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Paton, C. (2026, September 17). SNP ministers warned public sector savings hard to achieve without compulsory redundancies. Daily Mail. https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-16139703/SNP-ministers-warned-public-sector-savings-hard-achieve-without-compulsory-redundancies.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

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Quick Summary

An economist warns that compulsory redundancies may be necessary for the Scottish Government to meet its goal of reducing the public sector workforce by 0.5% annually until 2031, a target aimed at addressing a projected £5 billion budget shortfall. Despite First Minister John Swinney's previous refusal to rule out voluntary redundancies while maintaining a policy against compulsory ones, David Phillips from the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that such measures might be unavoidable due to workforce needs in certain areas and technological changes. The public sector in Scotland has actually increased by 6,640 employees since June 2026, reaching a total of 603,800 workers.

Written by AI on 2026-09-20, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

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Story summary

The Scottish Government faces a challenge in meeting its goal of reducing the public sector workforce by 0.5% annually by 2031 to address a projected near-£5 billion budget deficit by the end of the decade. The Institute for Fiscal Studies' David Phillips warned that without compulsory redundancies, achieving these targets might be difficult. Despite the government's long-standing opposition to forced layoffs in the civil service, some officials have suggested a voluntary redundancy scheme as an alternative approach. When questioned about specific job losses and potential compulsory redundancies, First Minister John Swinney refused to provide precise figures but reaffirmed that compulsory dismissals would not occur. The public sector employment numbers showed an increase overall due to growth in devolved civil service roles, while college and police and fire service staff declined.

Written for “Scottish Public Sector Savings” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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43%

6 of 14 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

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Daily Mail · 8805 article(s) · 22 correction(s) detected

Running correction rate · 22 correction(s)

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Clarifications and corrections

Who wrote this

Craig Paton

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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 47 articles by Craig Paton →

Topics

Daily Mail Holyrood the Institute for Fiscal Studies the Public Service Reform Committee the Scottish Government

Subjects

the Scottish Government ORG · 3× John Swinney PERSON · 2× Daily Mail ORG · 1× David Phillips PERSON · 1× Holyrood ORG · 1× SNP ORG · 1× Scottish NORP · 1× the Institute for Fiscal Studies ORG · 1× the Public Service Reform Committee ORG · 1×

Narrative

The massive increase included a rise in the number of people working in the devolved civil service, councils and public corporations – while employment in colleges and the police and fire services declined.

framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-20

🔮 - See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Compulsory redundancies may need to be considered if the Scottish Government is to meet its target of reducing the public sector workforce, an economist has warned.

2026-09-20 · Daily Mail

SNP ministers warned public sector savings hard to achieve without compulsory redundancies · mixed framing

Claims (14 extracted, 6 hedged)

- See more Daily Mail on Google - save us as a Preferred Source Compulsory redundancies may need to be considered if the Scottish Government is to meet its target of reducing the public sector workforce, an economist has warned. uncertain

economist → see → workforce

Ministers have set a goal of reducing the headcount by 0.5 per cent annually by 2031 in a drive to tackle the near-£5billion black hole in the public finances expected by the end of the decade. asserted

Ministers → set → decade

The Government has a long-held principle of not allowing compulsory redundancies within the civil service, with the goal due to be met by not replacing staff in some departments after they have left. asserted

they → have → departments

A civil service-produced report last month raised the spectre of a voluntary redundancy scheme, though ministers have steadfastly said they will not sack public sector workers. asserted

they → produce → workers

Earlier this month the First Minister John Swinney refused to give ‘particular numbers’ of job losses but ruled out compulsory redundancies. But David Phillips, the head of devolved and local government finance at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the Government may struggle to get the workforce it needs without compulsory reductions. uncertain

it → refuse → reductions

Appearing before the Public Service Reform Committee at Holyrood yesterday, he said: ‘We have some concerns about delivering this just through attrition. asserted

We → appear → attrition

First Minister John Swinney ruled out compulsory redundancies ‘Because attrition, if it happens randomly across the workforce, that might not be delivering you the sort of scale of cuts you need. ‘At the same time as cutting the overall workforce, there will be elements of the workforce where we know that either demand pressures or changes in technology and the role that workers that have skills in that area can play in the public sector might need increases. uncertain

that → rule → increases

‘You might need increases in the number of nurses, for example, but you also might need increases in the number of software engineers and people that can help drive the use of technology in the public sector. uncertain

that → need → sector

‘While there may be scope to use natural attrition and redeploy some people, we think that, given the kind of pace of change that’s now needed, the Scottish Government may need to consider schemes that involve redundancies, at least, in the first instance, voluntary redundancies. uncertain

that → use → redundancies

‘But, if it really wants to deliver this, it may need to consider, unfortunately – I’m not saying this is something we’re pleased to see – compulsory redundancies in certain areas so that it can increase the roles in other areas.’ uncertain

it → want → areas

It comes as it emerged earlier this week that the public sector has continued to expand despite SNP promises to finally scale it back. asserted

sector → come → it

An extra 6,640 people were employed by the Scottish public sector in the year to June 2026, with total employment soaring to 603,800. asserted

employment → employ → 603,800

employment → include → colleges

The Scottish Government has been contacted for comment. asserted

Government → contact → comment