U.S. gas prices approached their highest level of the year Friday, after the national average rose another 3 cents overnight.
asserted
average → approach → year
Friday’s price sits just 10 cents below the highest level hit earlier this year, on May 21, when the national average was $4.56 per gallon.
uncertain
average → sit → gallon
Gas prices are also once again within striking distance of their all-time highest level of $5.01, which was hit in June 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
asserted
Russia → strike → Ukraine
Already, at least six states have average gas prices above $5.
asserted
states → have → 5
California has the highest in the nation, at $6.11 per gallon.
asserted
California → have → gallon
A handful of other states, such as Michigan, Utah, and Illinois were on the cusp of hitting $5 Friday.
asserted
handful → hit → 5
Gas prices overall have risen 50% nationwide since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
asserted
U.S. → rise → Feb.
At the same time, the price of diesel has been registering new daily all-time highs since it first breached $6 per gallon on Sept. 11.
asserted
it → register → Sept.
The national average diesel price was $6.44 on Friday, after rising five cents overnight.
asserted
price → rise → Friday
The price-per-gallon of the commercial fuel has risen 71% since the start of the Iran war.
asserted
price → rise → war
Rising diesel prices can translate into higher costs for consumers by raising the wholesale cost of getting goods to retailers and grocery stores.
asserted
prices → rise → retailers
The global shipping, rail and trucking industries all rely on diesel.
asserted
industries → rely → diesel
A political crisis
For months, the Trump administration has claimed that fuel prices will drop sharply as soon as the war is over.
asserted
war → claim → months
But more recently, the president has begun conceding that it may take much longer than that for global energy costs to come back down.
uncertain
costs → begin → that
“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” President Donald Trump said on Sept. 9.
asserted
Trump → go → Sept.
With less than 8 weeks left before the U.S. midterm elections, frustration over prices is building among consumers.
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frustration → leave → consumers
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey recently dropped sharply on inflation concerns.
asserted
survey → drop → concerns
And on some parts of social media, Americans — even some who claim to have supported Trump — are sharing their frustration with high gas prices.
uncertain
who → claim → prices
Trump has also claimed that his administration will be able to push gas prices below $2 per gallon.
asserted
administration → claim → gallon
Unleaded gas has not fallen below $2 since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which brought the global economy to a near standstill for months.
asserted
which → fall → months
Experts have cast serious doubts on the president’s claims.
uncertain
Experts → cast → claims
For months, commodities analysts have predicted that the longer the Iran war drags on, the higher oil and gas prices will climb and the longer it will take for them to come back down.
asserted
them → predict → months
“If diplomacy fails and Hormuz flows stay near current levels, inventories could draw toward operational lows and Brent could rise” to around $120 per barrel
uncertain
Brent → fail → barrel
, HSBC analysts wrote on Sept. 8.
asserted
analysts → write → Sept.
Goldman Sachs also raised its price forecast for Brent crude oil to more than $120 per barrel in the event that Persian Gulf oil flows remained low — which they have.
asserted
they → raise → which
Bank of America analysts went a step further, assessing in early September that a “broader conflict resulting in major energy infrastructure damage may spike prices as high as $150” per barrel.
uncertain
conflict → go → barrel
These price forecasts are already close to becoming reality.
asserted
forecasts → become → ?
On Friday morning, Brent crude oil approached $105 per barrel.
asserted
oil → approach → barrel
U.S. crude oil traded just above $103 per barrel.
asserted
oil → trade → barrel
No progress on Iran
As the war in Iran nears its seventh month, there are few signs that the critical Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s southwestern coast will return to pre-war traffic levels anytime soon.
asserted
Strait → near → levels
Not only have daily transits fallen to a fraction of their pre-war totals, but insurance costs have soared for tankers seeking to pass through a waterway in which both Iranian and U.S. forces continue to conduct military strikes.
asserted
forces → fall → strikes
Iran has repeatedly attacked oil tankers and regional energy infrastructure, disrupting energy supply routes and refining capabilities across the Middle East.
asserted
Iran → attack → East
Last Thursday, Saudi Arabia was forced to shut a critical east-west oil pipeline after “multiple attacks.”
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Arabia → force → attacks
As of Friday morning, it was not clear when the pipeline would resume operations, although there were signs that the Kingdom was building a new length of pipeline to circumvent the damaged sections.
asserted
Kingdom → resume → sections
The Russian angle
Far from the Middle East, recent developments in Russia’s years long invasion of Ukraine are also helping to send global fuel prices higher.
asserted
developments → help → prices
Russia has extended a monthslong ban on the export of diesel fuel through at least the end of September, after Ukrainian drone strikes damaged energy assets in the country.
asserted
strikes → extend → country
As high diesel prices dominate U.S. headlines, Trump has made little secret of his anger with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the strikes.
asserted
Trump → dominate → strikes
“Mr. Zelenskyy has to do one thing.
asserted
Zelenskyy → have → thing
He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump told reporters on Sunday.
asserted
Trump → have → Sunday
“Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel,” said Trump.
asserted
Trump → let → fuel
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
