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Increased ICE enforcement in 2025 hurt local employment, analysis finds

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Cite

Cerullo, M. (2026, September 18). Increased ICE enforcement in 2025 hurt local employment, analysis finds. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-surge-employment-effects-missing-jobs/

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CBS News · collected 2026-09-18 · by Megan Cerullo

Quick Summary

A study by the Brookings Institution reports that cities experiencing a surge in ICE arrests saw employment decline by 0.4% compared to expected levels within a year of increased enforcement. Each arrest correlated with an average loss of four jobs, affecting both immigrants and American workers. Marcela Escobari, lead author of the report, noted that fear among immigrant workers led many to stop working or leave their jobs, causing broader economic disruptions in local businesses.
Written by AI on 2026-09-19, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In 2025, U.S. cities experiencing increased ICE enforcement saw a decline in employment by 0.4% below expected levels both immediately after and up to one year following ICE raids, according to a Brookings Institution study. Each arrest correlated with an average loss of four jobs across various industries, impacting not just immigrants but also American workers. Marcela Escobari, the report's lead author and former White House official, told CBS News that employment fell in cities targeted by ICE, affecting workplaces and consumer-facing stores regardless of neighborhood demographics. However, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis countered these findings, arguing that President Biden faced a surge in illegal immigration that threatened fiscal health and contributed to inflation, without acknowledging the report's claims about job losses.

Written for “ICE Enforcement Impact” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 ICE Enforcement Impact
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
28
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
18%
5 of 28 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
65/100
CBS News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-19 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

CBS News · 4566 article(s) · 7 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 7 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Megan Cerullo
31 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
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Also by Megan Cerullo
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 31 articles by Megan Cerullo →

Topics

American CBS News ICE U.S. White House

Subjects

ICE ORG · 12× American NORP · 5× CBS News ORG · 4× U.S. GPE · 4× Escobari PERSON · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× Biden PERSON · 2× Brookings ORG · 2× White House ORG · 2× Immigration and Customs Enforcement ORG · 1×

Narrative

"Effects intensify near raid sites, do not dissipate over time and are remarkably general: Declines occur regardless of neighborhood demography, affect workplaces and consumer-facing stores across myriad industries, and trigger no substitution to online shopping," Exequiel Hernandez, an expert on global and corporate strategy, wrote.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-19

Claims (28 extracted, 5 hedged)

Employment fell last year in U.S. cities where Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests surged the most, according to a recent study. uncertain
arrests → fall → study
In cities where ICE arrests increased fastest in 2025, employment fell 0.4% below its expected trajectory both immediately after those detentions and for up to one year after a metro area was targeted, researchers with the Brookings Institution said in the report. asserted
researchers → increase → report
On average, each arrest in cities where ICE's presence was associated with four lost jobs asserted
presence → associate → four
, the nonpartisan think tank said. asserted
tank → say → ?
"We found that employment fell in the cities where ICE activity surged, and not just among immigrants, but asserted
activity → find → immigrants
there were broader effects, including for Americans," Marcela Escobari, the report's lead author and a former special assistant to the White House National Security Council during the Biden administration, told CBS News. asserted
Escobari → be → News
White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis dismissed claims that ICE enforcement tactics led to reduced employment in cities where arrests spiked. uncertain
arrests → dismiss → cities
"The surge in illegal immigration under President Biden threatened the long-run fiscal health of the country, contributed to record high inflation and suppressed the wages of American workers," she said in a statement to CBS News. asserted
she → threaten → News
"There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump's agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration's commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws. asserted
agenda → be → laws
Stronger immigration enforcement policies "protect American workers, reduce strain on local communities, and reinforce the nation's right to control its borders and determine who enters the United States," according to a White House statement. uncertain
who → protect → statement
The Trump administration ramped up its immigration crackdown in 2025. asserted
administration → ramp → 2025
In January, thousands of federal agents were to investigate alleged fraud, leading to mass protests and the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens by federal officers. asserted
thousands → investigate → officers
In July, ICE detentions set a monthly record high for Mr. Trump's second term, with the agency taking into custody facing deportation because of alleged immigration violations, like entering the U.S. illegally or overstaying their visas, CBS News has reported. asserted
News → set → visas
Businesses disrupted Increased ICE arrests in U.S. cities last year drove job losses in three ways, Escobari told CBS News. asserted
Escobari → disrupt → News
First, some workers stopped reporting for work because they feared encountering ICE. asserted
they → stop → ICE
"Fear drove workers to withdraw from the labor force even when they weren't arrested," she said. asserted
she → drive → force
This led to labor disruptions for some businesses, leading them to reduce their operating hours, delay expansion, freeze hiring, or, in some cases, lay off staff or shut down, according to Brookings. uncertain
This → lead → Brookings
"We spoke to people in the field who explicitly said, if their framing crew is led by immigrants and they stop working or get arrested, they can't hand off the project to their roofing crew, and the project stalls asserted
project → speak → crew
," Escobari said, referring to the impact of increased ICE enforcement in the construction sector. asserted
Escobari → say → sector
"The company still needs to pay its debts, and many close altogether. asserted
many → need → debts
When they close, the project manager or equipment operator and other occupations that tend to be occupied by American workers also lose their jobs. asserted
that → close → jobs
" Rising ICE arrests in cities in 2025 also reduced employment by sapping consumer demand and spending, hurting local businesses, according to the Brookings researchers. uncertain
arrests → rise → researchers
"These [ICE] operations engender widespread fear, and when people stop going out, they stop spending, and that forces businesses to close," Escobari said. asserted
Escobari → engender → businesses
Other research has also found a negative impact of increased ICE enforcement on local economies. asserted
research → find → economies
A 2026 study from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania found that economic activity and consumer spending dropped last year in metro areas where ICE conducted raids. asserted
ICE → find → raids
"Effects intensify near raid sites, do not dissipate over time and are remarkably general: Declines occur regardless of neighborhood demography, affect workplaces and consumer-facing stores across myriad industries, and trigger no substitution to online shopping," Exequiel Hernandez, an expert on global and corporate strategy, wrote. asserted
Hernandez → intensify → strategy
"The breadth of the local economic damage mirrors the breadth of the enforcement approach." asserted
breadth → mirror → approach
Another 2026 analysis, by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, found that customer visits to businesses in Los Angeles County fell by as much as 11% in the weeks following ICE enforcement operations in the region. asserted
visits → find → region
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