Labor has made a lasting concession to a migration debate that shows little sign of rewarding them for joining it.
asserted
that → make → it
A Treasury forecast for net overseas migration (NOM) to fall to 225,000 had already become a political benchmark to judge the federal government against.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has now gone further by formally accepting the figure as a target and effectively turning it into a guarantee.
Most Labor MPs will be glad to see the end of constant speculation about Labor's temporary migration policy, sparked by the six-week delay in unveiling the plan.
asserted
MPs → fall → plan
Burke certainly delighted in dispelling some of the inaccurate reporting when he finally announced the tighter visa rules aimed at bringing down arrivals and increasing departures.
asserted
he → delight → departures
He has ended the uncertainty of what the government intends to do, but Labor is now in a fight where the terms have been set by its political opponents.
asserted
terms → end → opponents
Failure is not an option
Fronting the National Press Club on Thursday, Burke declared the NOM forecast "must be met" and was unequivocal when pressed on the possibility of failure.
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forecast → front → failure
He said that "won't happen".
asserted
that → say → ?
The distinction was essentially academic, but future governments may wish Labor had never formally accepted NOM as a "target".
uncertain
Labor → wish → target
It was not quite a year ago that Burke was at the press club describing the figure as a "guide" and declining to nominate an optimal number.
asserted
Burke → describe → number
"I won't give you a magic number," he said.
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he → give → number
"I don't think there is a magic number."
asserted
I → think → ?
Burke argued NOM's predictability would "always be uncertain" partly because of Australian citizens' behaviour.
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predictability → argue → behaviour
But under pressure from political opponents, who argue they have the public on their side, Labor gave up what wriggle room remained.
asserted
room → argue → side
Migration votes are hard to find
There is no doubt Australians are concerned about migration.
asserted
Australians → find → migration
Ask voters if levels are too high and many will say yes, just as they would complain about congestion, housing or pressure on services.
But pollster Kos Samaras argues there is a difference between disliking something and voting on it.
asserted
Samaras → ask → it
Research conducted by his firm Redbridge over the past year has found migration is a salient issue for only about 10 per cent of voters, with most already supporting One Nation.
asserted
most → conduct → Nation
"I do not know why the political class keeps talking about migration," Samaras told this column.
asserted
Samaras → know → column
Even on housing, only about 30 per cent of Australians believe migration has contributed in some way.
asserted
migration → believe → way
Samaras said the main vote drivers remain the economy and health.
asserted
drivers → say → ?
Reducing migration might be popular in isolation, but the voters most likely to reward a government for doing it are already parked with the one party promising to go much further.
uncertain
party → reduce → it
Pinning down the numbers
The other difficulty for Labor with fixing on 225,000 is how the number was arrived at in the first place.
asserted
number → pin → place
Treasury does not start with a desired number deemed optimal for the economy and work backwards.
asserted
Treasury → start → economy
It forecasts movements into and out of Australia based on observed behaviour, visa data and government policy.
asserted
It → forecast → behaviour
Lately the predictions haven't been great, largely because it has proved difficult to pin down when temporary migrants already here will leave.
Still, Labor has adopted the destination already sitting in the budget and promised to make policy conform to it.
asserted
policy → prove → it
But that doesn't settle whether a number calculated as the likely outcome of existing settings should become the basis for future policy.
asserted
number → settle → policy
In embracing NOM as a target, Burke argued the post-COVID migration peak had been too high and housing supply needed time to catch up.
asserted
supply → embrace → time
But there is no guarantee Labor will get any political dividend from hitting 225,000, particularly when its opponents are promising to go much lower.
asserted
opponents → be → 225,000
That would be why Burke has been trying to make the case against deeper cuts, warning they would "trash" the economy and services.
asserted
they → try → economy
Burke rejected the idea of Australia as a nation of "mass migration" — a term used by One Nation and many in the Coalition — as "absurd".
asserted
Burke → reject → Coalition
And yet Labor has accepted the premise of that debate, that there should be a publicly nominated migration number for which government is accountable.
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government → accept → which
Once everyone is bidding on NOM, the argument naturally becomes who will go lower.
asserted
who → bid → NOM
One Nation want to plunge into the negative before settling at 130,000 in three years' time, while the Coalition will tie its target to housing completion rates and likely settle on a NOM of between 150,000 and 170,000.
asserted
Coalition → want → 150,000
LoadingPolitical control over migration
Labor may want the argument to be about how migration is managed, but in fixing on a target it has given greater legitimacy to the numbers contest.
uncertain
it → want → contest
Every time housing gets tighter, unemployment rises, infrastructure strains or the NOM overshoots, there would be political pressure to revise the number down.
asserted
infrastructure → get → number
There would be much less political reward for arguing it should go back up.
asserted
it → argue → ?
It's hard to imagine anyone outbidding One Nation leader Pauline Hanson in this auction.
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anyone → imagine → auction
And Labor spends its time explaining why its own reduction is sufficient, then the argument has already moved away from whether cuts are the right response to the underlying problems.
asserted
cuts → spend → problems
Burke's policy package is largely about gaining control over parts of the migration system that are demand driven like backpacker extensions, student dependants, visa-hopping and overstayers.
asserted
that → gain → extensions
But as no one knows better than him, greater control over the system is not the same thing as precise control over NOM.
asserted
control → know → NOM
The Aporia
