Photo via Reason

The Shaky Evidence That Flock Cameras Reduce Crime Rates

Read the original at Reason ↗
Cite

Billings, A. (2026, September 18). The Shaky Evidence That Flock Cameras Reduce Crime Rates. Reason. https://reason.com/2026/09/18/the-shaky-evidence-that-flock-cameras-reduce-crime-rates/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Reason · collected 2026-09-18 · by Autumn Billings

Quick Summary

The Institute for Justice questions Flock Safety's claims that its automatic license plate readers reduce car theft and increase arrest rates. Using data from 2017 to 2023 involving 216 agencies that deployed Flock cameras and 3,108 that did not, the original study found an 11 percent drop in motor vehicle thefts and a 15.9 percent rise in arrests. However, Matthew West of IJ points out that trends were already favorable before ALPR deployment, suggesting other crime-fighting measures might be responsible for improvements observed.
Written by AI on 2026-09-18, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Institute for Justice recently published an analysis challenging Flock Safety's claims about the effectiveness of their automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) in reducing crime. The study examined data from 216 agencies using Flock’s cameras between 2017 and 2023, compared to 3,108 agencies that did not use them. While the analysis reported an 11 percent drop in motor vehicle thefts, a 15.9 percent increase in arrests for such crimes, and a reduction of 0.28 days in median recovery time for stolen cars, it also noted significant caveats. According to the Institute’s critique, existing crime trends before ALPR deployment could have influenced these results, making it difficult to conclusively attribute positive changes solely to Flock's technology. This uncertainty raises questions about whether ALPRs are truly effective or if other factors contributed to observed improvements in theft and arrest rates.

Written for “Flock Cameras And Crime Rates” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Flock Cameras And Crime Rates
Crime & Law · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 25% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Independent
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 2 of 32 claims Outlet record 59/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock cameras: one covers Trump's endorsement and community reactions, while the other examines their effectiveness in reducing crime.”
404 Media
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 2 of 26 claims Outlet record 95/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock cameras: one focuses on a cop's misuse of the system with nonsensical reasons, while the other examines whether Flock cameras reduce crime rates.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 1 of 20 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A reports on President Trump's endorsement of Flock cameras, while Article B discusses a study analyzing the effectiveness of Flock cameras. These are different events.”
Reason
⚖️ Leans strongly right further right than this Hedges 2 of 49 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock Safety's ALPRs; Article A covers Trump's support for Flock cameras during a press gaggle, while Article B discusses an analysis questioning the effectiveness of Flock cameras in reducing crime.”
The Intercept
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 4 of 115 claims Outlet record 97/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock cameras: one focuses on a local debate and use of AI to rally support, while the other addresses evidence regarding crime reduction claims.”
404 Media
Hedges 6 of 37 claims Outlet record 95/100
“Article A discusses Flock's fake 'Flock City PD' searching live cameras during a demonstration, while Article B evaluates whether Flock Safety cameras reduce crime rates based on data analysis.”
Fox News
Hedges 1 of 20 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock Safety's technology—one concerning a Senate hearing on privacy concerns and the other an analysis questioning its effectiveness in reducing crime.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 22 claims Outlet record 70/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Flock Safety's activities; Article A mentions a political investigation, while Article B focuses on an analysis questioning the effectiveness of their technology.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 27 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A reports on Governor Abbott's decision to freeze new Flock camera installations in Texas, while Article B discusses a study analyzing the effectiveness of Flock cameras.”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 16 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses a local delay in Suffolk County regarding Flock Safety's system rollout due to protests, while Article B is an analysis questioning the effectiveness of Flock Safety cameras across multiple agencies and does not describe the same specific incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
20
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
25%
5 of 20 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
67/100
Reason's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Crime & Law
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-18 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Reason · 1070 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Autumn Billings
7 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 While ICE will disclose some details about detainees, the agency's refusal to provide the names, dates of birth, and locations of detainees violates the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), according to a federal lawsuit filed by The Marshall Project on Tuesday.
🔮 If Americans had no reasonable expectation of privacy while in public, police officers wouldn't have these restrictions on their authority.
🔮 "But I could not see the damage they were describing," she continued.
2026-09-25 · assertive framing · Banning Flock Won't Be Enough Without Police Reform
🔮 Such "events may have contributed to motor vehicle theft rising and falling at different times in different places," writes West, further complicating whether ALPR cameras did, in fact, cause favorable changes in the data.
🔮 But at the end of the otherwise normal appointment, she was told she couldn't leave.
🔮 Venegas was working early on May 21, 2025, laying the foundation for a new home in Foley, Alabama, southeast of Mobile, when he saw "five armed men in camouflage" jump the property line fence and run toward the construction workers, according to his complaint filed in the Southern District of Alabama.
🔮 But while many privacy advocates may relish seeing Flock on the run, civil liberties experts warn against losing sight of what truly matters: passing strong legal protections that outlive Flock's dominance.
Also by Autumn Billings
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 7 articles by Autumn Billings →

Topics

Flock Flock Safety's Kia West the Institute for Justice

Subjects

Flock ORG · 6× West PERSON · 3× Kia ORG · 2× the Institute for Justice ORG · 2× Flock Safety ORG · 1× Flock Safety's ORG · 1× Hyundai ORG · 1× Matthew West PERSON · 1× the Plate Privacy Project ORG · 1×

Narrative

"Because there were already differences in arrests and thefts trends before ALPR deployment, we don't know if the differences in ALPR deployment were caused by ALPR deployment," West explained in a statement. West goes on to point out that the authors were able to obtain an 11 percent drop in motor vehicle theft only "when the data are weighted in favor of agencies that had a bigger problem to begin with."
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-18
🔮 Such "events may have contributed to motor vehicle theft rising and falling at different times in different places," writes West, further complicating whether ALPR cameras did, in fact, cause favorable changes in the data.
2026-09-18 · Reason
The Shaky Evidence That Flock Cameras Reduce Crime Rates · mixed framing

Claims (20 extracted, 5 hedged)

Do Flock cameras actually reduce crime? asserted
cameras → reduce → crime
A new analysis by the Institute for Justice casts doubt on Flock Safety's claims that its automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) significantly reduce car theft and increase clearance rates. uncertain
readers → cast → rates
Flock Safety has been promoting a working paper that examines whether the company's controversial and hotly debated cameras improve outcomes for motor vehicle theft. asserted
cameras → promote → theft
To test the effects of Flock's surveillance network, the study uses data from 216 agencies that began using Flock in the period from 2017 to 2023, and 3,108 agencies that did not. asserted
that → test → 2023
The authors then evaluated the cameras' effects on monthly motor vehicle thefts, arrest rates for motor vehicle theft, and the recovery time of stolen cars following ALPR deployment. asserted
authors → evaluate → deployment
The study's findings include an 11 percent drop in motor vehicle theft, a 15.9 percent increase in motor vehicle theft arrests, and a reduction of 0.28 days in the median recovery time for some stolen cars. asserted
findings → include → cars
The authors concluded that "fixed ALPR deployment is associated with lower theft and higher [arrests], alongside a modest reduction in recovery lag among recorded recoveries. asserted
deployment → conclude → recoveries
But the data aren't actually that clear, according to a new analysis from the Institute for Justice (IJ), a libertarian law firm and home of the Plate Privacy Project. uncertain
data → accord → Project
IJ Senior Researcher Analyst Matthew West found that motor vehicle thefts and arrest rates in those jurisdictions were already trending in the favored direction months before Flock's cameras were ever in use. asserted
cameras → find → use
Unsurprisingly, many of the places that chose to deploy ALPR systems did so when experiencing high levels of vehicle theft, and engaged in crime-fighting initiatives beyond partnering with Flock. asserted
that → choose → Flock
Because the study doesn't compare places on similar trajectories, it is unclear how much credit the cameras, as opposed to those other initiatives, deserve for causing motor vehicle thefts to fall and arrests to rise. uncertain
arrests → compare → initiatives
"Because there were already differences in arrests and thefts trends before ALPR deployment, we don't know if the differences in ALPR deployment were caused by ALPR deployment," West explained in a statement. West goes on to point out that the authors were able to obtain an 11 percent drop in motor vehicle theft only "when the data are weighted in favor of agencies that had a bigger problem to begin with." asserted
that → be → problem
By contrast, if "the data are instead averaged across all agencies (or weighted by population), the study finds no statistically significant change" in the number of thefts. asserted
study → average → thefts
The study's data have other complications that the authors did not fully account for. asserted
authors → have → that
One is the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, which impacted both the level of crime and the number of people driving across the country. asserted
which → impact → country
Another is the viral "Kia Challenge" on social media, which led to increased Kia and Hyundai thefts. asserted
which → lead → thefts
Such "events may have contributed to motor vehicle theft rising and falling at different times in different places," writes West, further complicating whether ALPR cameras did, in fact, cause favorable changes in the data. uncertain
cameras → contribute → data
These criticisms don't necessarily mean the study's results are wrong, but they do show that the full picture hasn't been explored. asserted
picture → mean → ?
Flock has been using the working paper's results to defend its cameras against an ongoing national backlash. asserted
Flock → use → backlash
But as much as the company may wish otherwise, the scrutiny of ALPR surveillance technology is far from over. uncertain
scrutiny → wish → technology
💬Give feedback
🕘History 🎫Support