Ahead of municipal elections, it is customary for me to use this column to provide perspective and insights into housing matters affecting the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
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me → use → Area
My objective is to share information that will help voters evaluate platforms and campaign promises before voting day.
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voters → share → day
Recently, commentators have argued that the mix of new housing being built in Toronto and the GTA is wrong, and that government policy is responsible for the mismatch and the resulting slowdown in sales of condominiums.
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policy → argue → condominiums
While government land use policies do call for intensification and increased density, this is only one reason we have seen a proliferation of highrise and higher-density housing.
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we → call → housing
Geography has placed Lake Ontario on the region’s southern border, and many municipalities — including Toronto, Mississauga, Pickering, Newmarket and Burlington — are built out to their boundaries — with no room to expand.
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municipalities → place → room
The city of Toronto, for example, has rigid borders and no prospect of municipal expansion, meaning large-scale greenfield suburban development simply isn’t possible there.
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development → have → expansion
This brings us to economics.
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This → bring → economics
That scarcity makes single-family homes or townhomes unaffordable for most buyers, pushing development toward higher-density, multi-family infill housing.
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homes → make → housing
One common argument — that municipal development charges (DCs) actually encourage condominiums because a condominium DC is typically half that of a single-family home — doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.
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DC → encourage → scrutiny
Development charges are imposed based on the municipal services and infrastructure that residents generate.
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residents → impose → that
Larger homes can house more people, triggering greater demand for services and infrastructure — hence higher charges.
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homes → house → services
There is also infrastructure efficiency built in by high-density construction, assuming that the infrastructure is in a state of good repair and not in need of upgrading.
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infrastructure → be → upgrading
On a per-square-foot basis, condominium or apartment DCs are actually nearly double those applied to a single-family home — running counter to the idea that policy favours intensification.
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policy → apply → intensification
To absorb those costs while keeping units affordable, developers have faced downward pressure on unit sizes.
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developers → absorb → sizes
Which brings me to the “shoebox” debate.
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Which → bring → debate
Critics often deride new apartments as “shoeboxes in the sky.”
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Critics → deride → sky
But according to Altus — BILD’s official source of market intelligence — the average GTA condominium unit sold in July measured 800 square feet.
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unit → accord → feet
A quick comparison of other major cities will show that the average apartment in New York City is 779 square feet; in Montreal, 750 to 880; in Chicago, 748; in London, U.K., 667 to 721; and in Washington, D.C., 745.
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apartment → show → Washington
The data doesn’t support it.
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data → support → it
Demographic shifts, declining immigration levels, the intentional reduction of international students and non-permanent residents, international trade tensions and tariffs, and shrinking household sizes are all weighing on demand.
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shifts → decline → demand
On the flip side, the federal government has extended the new home HST rebate program to all buyers of new homes, and municipalities are announcing development charge reductions with increasing frequency.
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municipalities → extend → frequency
These measures are working their way through the market, but most are temporary.
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most → work → market
When they expire, we will be back where we started: a region that needs more housing of every type.
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that → expire → type
As October’s municipal election approaches, please keep this in mind: yes, we need changes to land use policy to ensure a better mix of housing (although this is largely a provincial matter).
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this → approach → housing
But when more normal market conditions return — and they will — we will be right back to needing more of everything — condominiums, rental apartments, townhomes, stacked townhomes, semis, single-family homes and everything in between.
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we → return → between
The Aporia
