Iran continues to impede commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Iran → continue → Hormuz
On the other side, the Houthis have seized the critical Yemeni port of Mokha, advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reached strategic Red Sea islands.
asserted
Houthis → seize → islands
Not only has Saudi Arabia seen both maritime exits blocked, but its east-west oil pipeline was put out of commission by fire from Iranian proxies apparently operating from Iraq.
asserted
pipeline → see → Iraq
This is becoming a strategic embarrassment for the United States and its allies.
asserted
This → become → States
Every additional week in which Iran appears able to dictate the region’s economic temperature weakens the West’s credibility.
asserted
Iran → appear → credibility
Add the danger of Iran’s regime surviving not only intact but strengthened — still building a bomb, spreading terrorism and massacring its people — and fixing this becomes a clear priority.
asserted
fixing → add → this
Doing so should be the top line on Trump’s agenda at his Sept. 24 summit with Xi Jinping.
asserted
Doing → do → Jinping
Because China is fueling this war.
asserted
China → fuel → war
Yes, the US and China have much to discuss on trade, AI, tariffs, intellectual property, currency, Russia and more.
asserted
US → have → trade
He must convince Xi to reduce China’s economic support for Iran.
asserted
He → convince → Iran
China supplies the economic oxygen that allows this madness to continue.
asserted
madness → supply → oxygen
Chinese purchases account for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, enabling Tehran to survive sanctions and finance the Revolutionary Guards and its regional proxies.
uncertain
purchases → account → Guards
Iran’s accessible oil stockpile has fallen from roughly 90 million barrels to around 29 million, according to The Wall Street Journal.
uncertain
stockpile → fall → Journal
With the blockade preventing Iran from replenishing that supply, the regime’s projection of normalcy is a façade.
asserted
projection → prevent → normalcy
Therefore, while Beijing has helped Tehran withstand sanctions as its buyer of last resort, that position is unsustainable — and Iranian and Chinese interests are beginning to diverge.
asserted
interests → help → resort
China may welcome a conflict that frustrates Washington, but it does not benefit indefinitely from chaos in the Persian Gulf.
uncertain
it → welcome → Gulf
Before the war, approximately 20.9 million barrels of petroleum products passed through Hormuz each day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, with nearly 90% of its crude and condensate going to Asian markets.
uncertain
% → pass → markets
Iran’s control of the chokepoint threatens Chinese supplies from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Qatar, while the Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb puts another maritime route at risk.
asserted
advance → threaten → risk
Trump should exploit this divergence and convince Xi that Iran has become more costly than useful.
asserted
Iran → exploit → Xi
Trump should make three demands.
asserted
Trump → make → demands
First, China should substantially and verifiably reduce purchases of Iranian oil, including oil routed through intermediaries or relabeled as originating elsewhere.
asserted
China → reduce → intermediaries
Second, Beijing should press Tehran to reopen Hormuz without discriminatory tolls, political conditions or threats against commercial vessels.
asserted
Beijing → press → vessels
Third, China should provide neither military assistance nor new mechanisms for evading the blockade and financial sanctions.
asserted
China → provide → blockade
Xi will not agree to this as a favor.
asserted
Xi → agree → favor
But Washington should keep fundamental security questions, including support for Taiwan, where Trump seems especially wobbly, outside the bargain.
asserted
Trump → keep → bargain
Cooperation on Iran would not justify weakening Taiwan’s long-term security or encouraging further Chinese coercion.
asserted
Cooperation → justify → coercion
A more appropriate lever exists in Venezuela.
asserted
lever → exist → Venezuela
Trump can offer Beijing a conditional and gradually expanding opening for Chinese commercial participation in Venezuela’s oil sector.
asserted
Trump → offer → sector
This is not to say the US would gift Venezuela’s oil to China.
asserted
US → say → China
(It’s not Trump’s to give anyway.)
asserted
It → ’ → ?
But Washington can simply use the sanctions and licensing framework it already controls to permit limited Chinese commercial participation.
asserted
it → use → participation
A verified reduction in Chinese purchases of Iranian oil could unlock licenses to purchase a defined volume of Venezuelan crude, at a discount that makes sense.
uncertain
that → verify → sense
Further reductions could permit limited investment in drilling, pipelines and storage.
uncertain
reductions → permit → drilling
That’s not what America wants in its backyard.
asserted
America → ’ → backyard
But you can’t have everything you want.
asserted
you → have → everything
Licenses should restrict companies, ownership stakes and projects while excluding ports, telecommunications and security infrastructure.
asserted
Licenses → restrict → ports
China already has extensive experience in Venezuela, where its institutions have lent billions and its energy companies have invested and purchased crude.
asserted
companies → have → crude
Trump would be exploiting an existing Chinese interest, not creating one.
asserted
Trump → exploit → one
If China resumed Iranian purchases above the agreed limits or helped Tehran conceal transactions or provided prohibited military assistance, then the licenses would expire and the sanctions would return.
asserted
sanctions → resume → assistance
Such a bargain aligns three interests.
asserted
bargain → align → interests
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
