There might be no economic case for expanding the Port of Churchill, but that may not be the point
Canada might need shipping route as sovereignty insurance policy, even if it pays a premium to do so
Piece by piece, like patches of ice receding from a frigid waterway, Manitoba's plan to expand the Port of Churchill is getting clearer.
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plan → expand → Churchill
Late last week, port owner Arctic Gateway Group attached a price range to the task of upgrading the site and the railway that connects it to the rest of Canada.
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that → attach → Canada
CEO Chris Avery said it would cost $2 billion to $3 billion to expand the port to allow it to ship higher volumes of commodities and rebuild the Hudson Bay Railway so it can carry heavier loads.
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it → say → loads
There are two other projects in the works in Manitoba right now that are in the same price range.
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that → be → range
The upgrades underway to the largest of Winnipeg's three sewage-treatment plants are expected to cost $3.2 billion once they're finished.
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they → expect → billion
The City of Winnipeg has assembled most of the money it needs to complete the job, which is entering its final phase.
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which → assemble → phase
The proposed expansion of Manitoba Hydro's gas-burning generating station in Brandon is also expected to cost $3 billion.
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expansion → propose → billion
Pending regulatory approval, the Crown corporation is ready to proceed with buying three new natural gas turbines.
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corporation → pende → turbines
The Port of Churchill expansion, meanwhile, exists in some sort of development limbo.
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expansion → exist → limbo
Rather, the upgrades to the port and railway exist as a precursor to a larger project touted by Premier Wab Kinew — a $79-billion port expansion that includes a liquefied natural gas terminal floating off the shore of Hudson Bay.
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that → exist → Bay
The question before Manitobans right now is, why is the province not simply proceeding with a $3-billion port expansion and railway upgrade, if indeed this infrastructure is a prerequisite for other projects that are inevitable?
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that → proceed → projects
The answer is that the provincial government still has a choice as to whether it wishes to proceed.
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it → have → choice
The City of Winnipeg didn't have a choice when it pulled the trigger on upgrades to its North End Water Pollution Control Centre.
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it → have → Centre
Without those upgrades, Winnipeg would violate its environmental licence, run out of sewage-treatment capacity and end up unable to approve new residential and industrial development.
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Winnipeg → violate → development
Manitoba Hydro, meanwhile, contends it is also in a difficult position.
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it → contend → position
Without three more gas turbines in place in Brandon by 2030, Hydro argues, Manitobans could suffer from mid-winter power shortages.
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Manitobans → argue → shortages
There is less at stake if Manitoba dawdles on Churchill, as failing to upgrade the port and railway would affect far fewer residents.
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failing → be → residents
The town and dozens of other northern Manitoba communities stand to benefit the most from this particular megaproject.
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town → stand → megaproject
As well, the economic benefits of the port expansion have not been demonstrated.
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benefits → demonstrate → expansion
The federal government has thus far refused to publish a Port of Churchill market sounding it commissioned.
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it → refuse → sounding
This raises suspicion international markets are not in love with the idea.
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markets → raise → idea
This could be why Kinew appears to be more interested in pursuing a liquefied natural gas moonshot.
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Kinew → appear → moonshot
This week, the premier said this much larger project provides potential backers with a greater potential rate of return.
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project → say → return
All of this ignores the primary purpose Canada ought to be interested in expanding the port at this moment in history, when our American friends have proven to be less than friendly.
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friends → ignore → history
As some of the world's leading experts in supply chains have stated over the past year, the Port of Churchill is of vital importance to Canada as an insurance policy — that is, an alternative means of getting goods out of the country — as opposed to being a money-maker.
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that → lead → country
Avery made this point last week, effectively arguing the port must be expanded if Canada ever hopes to divert more exports away from the United States.
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Canada → make → States
"If we want to grow our non-U.S. trade by 10 percentage points, that's the equivalent volume of four times the size of the Port of Vancouver.
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that → want → Vancouver
So that gives you a context of what we're looking at,'" he said in an interview.
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he → give → interview
To be clear, Avery has never said an expanded Port of Churchill won't make money.
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Port → say → money
But there is an argument to be made that its value as an insurance policy — effectively, the Canadian sovereignty argument — ought to make its potential as an economy-transforming revenue source a secondary concern.
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potential → be → source
University of British Columbia transportation and logistics professor Trevor Heaver said in 2025 that Canada should expand the Port of Churchill even without a purely economic case to do so.
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Canada → say → case
1st phase of Winnipeg's $3.2B North End sewage treatment plant upgrade nearing completion
Manitoba Hydro critics fuelled by data showing gas plant underperforms during winter cold snaps
"You've got to view these things from a national perspective, and that is present in this route," said Heaver, adding that insurance, by definition, comes at a higher cost.
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insurance → near → cost
Higher costs are certain for a route that involves an isolated port operated in frigid conditions on water that requires ice-hardened vessels to navigate for at least seven months out of the year.
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that → involve → year
"The economics may play out that it doesn't pay financially, commercially.
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it → play → ?
So then, you're left with the issue of how much are you prepared to pay for the resilience, and how much are you prepared to pay for the sovereignty which comes from it?" Heaver said.
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Heaver → leave → it
“How much are you prepared to pay for the revitalization of northern Manitoba?”
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you → prepare → Manitoba
Vidya Mani, a University of Virginia professor who studies global supply chains, said the Port of Churchill offers Canada's international trade partners the clear benefit of a shipping route that's free of geopolitical conflict.
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that → study → conflict
She said the question is not whether Hudson Bay shipping offers Canada more flexibility.
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shipping → say → flexibility
- Graphics
Canada and the EU are getting cosy.
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Canada → get → ?
These charts show how our economies stack up
- Analysis
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economies → show → ?
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
