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More Australians to live into their 90s as life expectancy forecast to rise over coming decades

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Australian Associated Press. (2026, September 20). More Australians to live into their 90s as life expectancy forecast to rise over coming decades. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/20/intergenerational-report-australian-life-expectancy-forecast-to-rise

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-09-20 · by Australian Associated Press

Quick Summary

The Australian government’s latest intergenerational report forecasts that life expectancy in Australia will rise, reaching nearly 90 years for women by 2065/66 and 86 years for men, up from current levels of about 86 and 82 respectively. This increase is attributed to the country's universal healthcare system and advancements in medical research. However, the report also predicts a slower population growth rate due to declining fertility rates, with the total population expected to be around 39.3 million by 2065/66, lower than previous forecasts. Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasized the need for continued investment in healthcare services and noted that while these trends present challenges, they also indicate a better-prepared future for Australians.
Written by AI on 2026-09-20, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Australian Treasury released an extract from its latest intergenerational report, which projects that by 2065/66, life expectancy at birth will reach nearly 90 years for women, up from about 86 years, and 86 years for men, up from 82 years. This rise in life expectancy is attributed to Australia's universal healthcare system and advancements in medical research. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged that an ageing population will create long-term budget pressures, necessitating further investments in Medicare and the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Meanwhile, the Australian Medical Association chief, Danielle McMullen, highlighted the importance of ensuring these extra years are lived healthily, stressing the need for effective healthcare policies to combat chronic diseases and mental illness among older Australians.

Written for “Australian Life Expectancy Rising” on 2026-11-02, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Australian Life Expectancy Rising
Health · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 19% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
Hedges 4 of 24 claims Outlet record 68/100
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 4 of 26 claims Outlet record 68/100
“While both articles discuss trends from the Intergenerational Report, Article A focuses on life expectancy forecasts while Article B emphasizes the demographic challenge of deaths outpacing births and aging population.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 61/100
“While both articles discuss the long-term outlook for Australia based on a report, they describe different aspects and are published on separate days.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 1 of 34 claims Outlet record 68/100
“While both articles discuss projections from an intergenerational report about life expectancy and population trends, they differ in focus and detail, with Article B also including live updates and additional political information.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 28 claims Outlet record 61/100
“While both articles discuss trends in life expectancy and aging based on government forecasts, they reference different reports released on separate dates.”
The Guardian
Hedges 2 of 25 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss aspects of the same report and its implications for Australia's future, they focus on different details and outcomes from the report.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 35 claims Outlet record 61/100
“Both articles discuss long-term forecasts for Australia but describe different aspects of the report, with A focusing on life expectancy and B on broader economic and demographic trends.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 54 claims Outlet record 68/100
“While both articles discuss the upcoming Intergenerational Report and its predictions for Australia's future, they do not describe the exact same specific incident or release. Article A focuses on the general context of Jim Chalmers' report, while Article B specifically discusses the life expectancy forecasts within the report.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 7 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles cover different aspects of similar topics but do not describe the same specific incident.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 0 of 89 claims Outlet record 61/100
“Article A discusses the general unreliability of intergenerational reports, while Article B focuses on specific predictions from a new report about life expectancy. Though related to similar topics, they describe different occurrences.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
16
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
19%
3 of 16 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Health
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-20 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 2803 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Australian Associated Press
44 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 “But I would challenge any Australian to read some of these threats and some of the abuse that is reported to us from federal parliamentarians and for anyone to argue that that is free speech or political discourse,” she added.
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Wire or desk byline, not an individual reporter.
Also by Australian Associated Press
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 44 articles by Australian Associated Press →

Topics

Australia Australian Medicare Treasury the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme

Subjects

Chalmers PERSON · 3× Treasury ORG · 3× Australia GPE · 2× Australian NORP · 1× Australians NORP · 1× Jim Chalmers PERSON · 1× Labor ORG · 1× Medicare ORG · 1× News24 ORG · 1× the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme ORG · 1×

Narrative

“Almost half the decline in fertility rates is actually because fewer people are having three or more kids and what that reflects is mums having fewer kids later in life,” Chalmers said. “Our job is to make it a little bit easier for people to make that choice if they want to,” he said, noting Labor’s policies to subsidise childcare, increase paid parental leave and lift mandatory superannuation contributions.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-20
🔮 Australian households will shrink but more people can expect to live well into their 90s, according to the latest update to forecasts of the country’s long-term future.

Claims (16 extracted, 3 hedged)

Australian households will shrink but more people can expect to live well into their 90s, according to the latest update to forecasts of the country’s long-term future. uncertain
people → shrink → future
Treasury’s latest intergenerational report, to be published in full on Monday, will project the impact of government policies 40 years into the future. asserted
report → publish → future
An extract released on Sunday showed life expectancy at birth was forecast to reach almost 90 for women by 2065/66, up from about 86 years at present. asserted
expectancy → release → present
Life expectancy for men was predicted to rise to 86 years in the next four decades, up from 82 years. asserted
expectancy → predict → years
Australia’s universal healthcare system and the impact of medical research were the key drivers of rising life expectancy, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said. asserted
treasurer → rise → expectancy
The report laid out the case for further investments in Medicare, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and the recent rollout of urgent care clinics, he said. asserted
he → lay → clinics
But a growing and ageing population would also be at the centre of long-term budget pressures, Chalmers told News24’s Sunday Agenda program. asserted
Chalmers → grow → program
“There are elements of the intergenerational report which are confronting, but it’s not a pessimistic report … because Australians are genuinely better placed and better prepared for all of this accelerating change that we are seeing,” he said. asserted
he → be → that
Australia’s population is expected to be slightly lower by the mid-2060s than forecast in the previous intergenerational report, released in 2023. asserted
population → expect → 2023
Population growth was expected to slow to 0.9% a year over the next four decades, down from 1.4% annually in the previous 40 years, according to Treasury forecasts. uncertain
growth → expect → forecasts
The nation’s population was predicted to reach 39.3 million by 2065/66, 1.8 million lower than the 2023 forecast. asserted
population → predict → forecast
Much of the slowdown in population growth was tied to lower fertility rates as women continued to have fewer children. asserted
women → tie → children
“Almost half the decline in fertility rates is actually because fewer people are having three or more kids and what that reflects is mums having fewer kids later in life,” Chalmers said. “Our job is to make it a little bit easier for people to make that choice if they want to,” he said, noting Labor’s policies to subsidise childcare, increase paid parental leave and lift mandatory superannuation contributions. asserted
he → have → contributions
Future government debt is expected to be slashed by half a trillion dollars compared to forecasts in the 2023 report, but much of the economic progress relies on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. asserted
much → expect → intelligence
“Overwhelmingly, the fiscal story is a little bit better; but still, lots, lots more work to do to manage some of these pressures and risks,” Chalmers said. asserted
Chalmers → do → pressures
Previous Treasury advice suggested AI could provide significant productivity gains across the public and private sectors if the nation kept pace with the global shift towards the technology. uncertain
nation → suggest → technology
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