- Published
Three weeks is a long time in football - especially if you are a manager struggling for results.
asserted
you → publish → results
So far this season two coaches have lost their jobs - Paul Heckingbottom at Preston North End and Michael Duff at Wycombe Wanderers.
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coaches → lose → Wanderers
But plenty of others will be looking over their shoulders heading into the new, extended international break.
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plenty → look → break
That includes the managers of Fulham and Manchester United, who on Sunday meet at Craven Cottage in the final fixture before players jet off around the world with their countries.
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players → include → countries
It will all be pretty new to Alvaro Arbeloa, appointed as Fulham's manager in the summer after taking charge of just 28 games as Real Madrid boss in the second half of last season.
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It → appoint → season
It was the first time United had led at home by two goals and lost since they were beaten 3-2 by Tottenham in 1976, half a century ago.
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they → lead → 1976
Coming on the back of the 1-0 loss to 10-man Manchester City, and with their only victories this season against Ipswich Town and Sabah, Carrick needs results.
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Carrick → come → results
But they are not the only managers who might have cause for concern.
uncertain
who → have → concern
The stats: Do clubs change managers in the international break?
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clubs → change → break
Over the past 10 years, it has been rare for a Premier League manager to be replaced this early in the campaign.
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manager → replace → campaign
The first break is longer, three weeks rather than two, and comes later.
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break → come → ?
The September slot used to come at the start of the month when clubs had only played three league fixtures.
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clubs → use → fixtures
In the past 10 years only two managers - Watford's Javi Gracia in 2019 and Nottingham Forest's Nuno Espirito Santo last year - moved on during this break.
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managers → move → break
Again, only two managers have previously lost their jobs during the same period - Francesco Guidolin at Swansea in 2016, and Xisco Munoz at Watford in 2021.
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managers → lose → 2021
This suggests clubs do not tend to use an international break to change manager.
uncertain
clubs → suggest → manager
It is, though, far more likely to happen in November, with six bosses replaced in the past 10 years.
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bosses → happen → years
That does not mean managers are safe, though.
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managers → mean → ?
The changes simply were not made during the breaks.
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changes → make → breaks
In the past 10 campaigns, nine coaches had left their jobs by the time the second international break came along - which is where we are in the number of games.
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we → leave → games
With no manager to move on yet, could it come in the next three weeks?
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it → move → weeks
Breaks give clubs a chance to bed in a new manager - Pulis
Former Stoke, West Brom and Middlesbrough boss Tony Pulis explains when the pressure can build for a football manager.
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pressure → give → manager
With the first international break upon us, rumblings around certain clubs that have started the season poorly have surfaced.
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that → start → season
In my time, the October/November international breaks, the pause just after the Christmas period, and then early March would be the three sticking points for any manager who was struggling with results.
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who → struggle → results
Why these breaks are used for clubs to make changes is plain to see.
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clubs → use → changes
The pause in the season gives football clubs the chance to appoint a new manager with time for them to settle into their new role, to take stock of the surroundings, staff and time to prepare for their first game in charge.
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them → give → charge
After Christmas, usually the first game is an FA Cup match, which again gives the new boss a chance close up to see what they have to work with.
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they → give → what
First impressions can be a vital starting point, so again the manager has time to prepare and deliver their principles to the lads.
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manager → have → lads
Personally, I've joined quite a few of my clubs midway through seasons, and have left a few clubs going the other way, but I do honestly believe that those international breaks, for the reasons I've given, definitely heighten the chances of struggling managers getting the sack.
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managers → join → sack
I don't see this September break as a flashing light, it is too early in the season, but from then on in, the dates I have mentioned really do come into play.
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I → see → play
But this early international break doesn't help any managers.
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break → help → managers
Whether your team is winning or losing, on both accounts, it's a nightmare.
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it → win → accounts
If you're winning you want to keep playing, and yet if you've started badly as a manager you want more time to put it right.
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you → win → it
Players travelling and the chance of injuries at such an early stage of the season
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Players → travel → season
While the evidence suggests things have to get pretty bad for a club to change manager early in the season, a few bosses are feeling the heat.
uncertain
bosses → suggest → heat
There are ways of losing games of course, but I don't see the trip to Fulham as being 'make or break' for Carrick in the sense of his job.
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I → be → job
Carrick says it would be "ridiculous" to think that way - and I agree.
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I → say → ?
He got enough credit in the bank last season by steering Manchester United into the Champions League to ride out a poor start to the season.
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He → get → season
I think the issue is United generate so much debate that a loss at Craven Cottage, which would be United's first since 2009, against a team that has only one point and is bottom of the table, would lead to numerous external inquests - which in turn puts a laser focus on the club when they resume their campaign against Tottenham on 10 October.
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they → think → October
It is unclear exactly how much danger Arbeloa is in, but there appears to be some substance to reports of disgruntlement among elements of Fulham's squad early in the campaign.
uncertain
Arbeloa → appear → campaign
His significant tactical changes since replacing Marco Silva have left the Cottagers vulnerable at the back, although they produced a more solid display in a goalless draw away to Liverpool last weekend.
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they → replace → Liverpool
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
