Every few years, its people are invited to demonstrate their loyalty to Vladimir Putin.
asserted
people → invite → Putin
Most duly oblige, before returning home to learn how their votes have been adjusted to secure the desired result.
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votes → oblige → result
Russians have had the opportunity to repeat the experience over a three-day parliamentary election ending on Sunday.
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Russians → have → Sunday
Yet the significance of the vote is less its predictable outcome than what comes after.
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what → come → vote
In European capitals from Kyiv to London, there is growing fear that the Russian president, his electoral charade behind him, will feel sufficiently emboldened to escalate his campaign in Ukraine, his undeclared war against Europe, or perhaps both.
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president → be → Europe
The most immediate concern is that Putin could order another mobilisation.
uncertain
Putin → order → mobilisation
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that the Kremlin is preparing to do just that shortly after this weekend’s elections.
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Kremlin → warn → elections
He has said Ukrainian intelligence assessments suggest Moscow plans to call up an additional 300,000 troops in an attempt to break the stalemate in the Donbas or launch fresh offensives in northern Ukraine.
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Moscow → say → Ukraine
It is not just Ukraine in Putin’s sights
Recent weeks have witnessed a series of increasingly provocative incidents involving Russia and NATO.
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weeks → witness → Russia
Last month, an explosives-laden drone struck a cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport but failed to detonate, an attack Germany subsequently blamed on Russian intelligence.
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Germany → lade → intelligence
And in the past week alone, a Russian frigate has fired flares at a Danish military helicopter in international waters and NATO jets shot down a drone over Lithuania.
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jets → fire → Lithuania
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen characterised such incidents as evidence that Russia’s “hybrid war” against Europe had intensified.
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war → characterise → Europe
But some Russia analysts say the term itself understates the seriousness of what is happening.
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what → say → seriousness
“No matter how much Russia escalates, some countries are still determined to call it hybrid – as opposed to acts of state terrorism or warlike actions,” said Keir Giles of international-affairs think tank Chatham House.
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Giles → escalate → House
Privately, European defence and security officials say they fear that such attacks are the beginning of a much more concerted campaign of increasingly overt action against NATO territory that could follow the elections.
uncertain
that → say → elections
If Putin does order a mobilisation, they say, its purpose could just as easily be focused on Europe as Ukraine, allowing him to deploy forces at newly built bases along Russia’s western frontier with NATO.
“A significant increase in Russian military manpower would mean Russia does not have to wait for the end of major combat operations in Ukraine before filling the military infrastructure that has been set up for troops along NATO’s eastern periphery,” Giles said.
uncertain
Giles → order → periphery
“A lot of what’s going on at the moment, like increases in tank production, is not meant for the Ukrainian front.
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what → go → front
They’re not using these tanks against Ukraine, so plainly they are intending to use them somewhere else.
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they → use → them
All of which suggests, observers say, that Putin remains convinced not just that he will win the election but the war as well – a conflict he increasingly represents less as a confrontation with Ukraine than with the West itself.
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he → suggest → West
Russians may not be able to make their votes count, but elections have sometimes allowed them to make their voices heard.
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voices → make → ?
Tens of thousands of protesters poured into Moscow’s Bolotnaya Square following controversial parliamentary elections in late 2011, marring Putin’s planned return to the presidency the following northern spring.
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thousands → pour → presidency
A repeat now seems unlikely.
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repeat → seem → ?
The repression unleashed since the invasion has all but eliminated the space for organised dissent, while Putin has successfully navigated a wartime election before.
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Putin → unleash → election
In 2024, he secured another presidential term, defeating rivals who refused to campaign and hinted that they hoped to lose.
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they → secure → rivals
The parliamentary election is similarly choreographed.
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election → choreograph → ?
The ruling United Russia party faces nominal competition from parties ranging from communists to nationalists, but on the central questions of Putin’s rule and the war, they offer little meaningful alternative.
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they → rule → alternative
“One would have a hard time calling these elections fair or competitive,” said Evgeny Roshchin of the Centre for European Policy Analysis in Washington.
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Roshchin → have → Washington
“People do compete in these elections, but most of them compete over how much love they have for Vladimir Putin or how strongly they endorse the current war.
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they → compete → war
So confident was the Kremlin of the outcome that Russia’s only openly anti-war party, Yabloko, was briefly permitted to run in July, only to be struck from the ballot weeks later.
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party → permit → ballot
Analysts attribute the about-turn to a surge in social media support for Yabloko among the young.
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Analysts → attribute → young
Far from being an embarrassment to the Kremlin, the episode demonstrates that the system works, according to Giles.
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system → demonstrate → Giles
“If you allow a party which poses no evident threat to register for the election, this supports the pretence of democracy,” he said.
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he → allow → democracy
“And if you then decide that actually it potentially is a problem, it’s very easy to remove it and ensure that nothing disrupts the smooth flow of results.”
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nothing → decide → results
With no party for disenchanted Russians to rally behind, Putin can once again subvert the democratic process without fear, securing a veneer of legitimacy for his authoritarian regime and a manufactured mandate for his war.
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Putin → rally → war
It also gives him a platform to claim that Russia holds elections in wartime, while Ukraine does not, an argument that could win favour in the White House.
uncertain
that → give → House
Yet the picture inside Russia is more complicated than the official results suggest.
asserted
results → suggest → Russia
Ukraine’s campaign to bring the war to the Russian heartland, with drone strikes on energy infrastructure and other targets, has increased the sense of vulnerability among ordinary Russians.
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campaign → bring → Russians
For some, that has produced a rally-round-the-flag effect.
asserted
that → produce → effect
“Some Russians are saying ‘well, now we understand that Putin was right from the very beginning and that, since this is a serious, existential struggle for Russia, we should unite around the Kremlin’,” said Nikolai Petrov of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST) in London.
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Petrov → say → London
But anxiety has also risen as the war has become harder to ignore.
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war → rise → ?
…and 50 more, not listed.
The Aporia
