This article is brought to you by American Purpose, the magazine and community founded by Francis Fukuyama in 2020, which is proudly part of the Persuasion family.
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which → bring → family
When news of the impending nuptials of Donald Trump, Jr. emerged this past May, it was striking that his father decided to skip his son’s wedding.
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father → impend → wedding
Despite President Trump’s many faults, he has a close-knit family.
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he → have → family
And to miss the wedding of not just any son, but the one he was so proud of that he passed on his own name, was very unusual.
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he → miss → name
Well, now we know why—or at least have a theory.
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we → know → theory
Self-preservation may have kicked in and ensured that the President of the United States was not caught alongside Umar Kremlev—a twice-convicted Russian oligarch with such close ties to Putin that he was on the Russian president’s delegation to China days before the wedding—and his largely Russian-speaking entourage, at the remarkably intimate 50-person affair.
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he → kick → affair
ProPublica reported on Monday that Kremlev had quietly contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars towards Trump, Jr.’s three-day wedding celebrations on two private islands in the Bahamas.
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Kremlev → report → Bahamas
The money paid for the rental of one island, a fireworks display, and the event planning.
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money → pay → island
It came through a Dubai-based entity affiliated with the International Boxing Association—the scandal-plagued sports body headed by Kremlev and funded by state-owned energy company Gazprom.
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It → come → Gazprom
Which is why it is doubly strange that, having recognized that this might be a trap or at the very least a problem, President Trump allowed this potential “kompromat” to go ahead.
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kompromat → recognize → least
While the information available so far is limited, this bears all the hallmarks of a carefully orchestrated operation from the Kremlin’s side.
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this → bear → side
We all know how much the Trump family likes to line its coffers.
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family → know → coffers
But a few hundred thousand dollars hardly seems worth the effort.
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dollars → seem → ?
Putin can probably be considered the richest man in the world (he does own an entire country), while the Trump family fortune has increased vastly since Trump, Sr. successfully monetized the office of the President of the United States of America.
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. → consider → America
For this theory to hold it was important for money, any money, to be paid by Kremlev to the Trumps.
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money → hold → Trumps
Then we should consider the figure of Kremlev himself.
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we → consider → Kremlev
Born Umar Lutfulloyev, his chosen nom de guerre means “of the Kremlin” when translated from Russian.
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guerre → bear → Russian
Ethnically a Tajik, he was convicted of extortion in 2004 and battery in 2007.
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he → convict → 2007
Added to that are Kremlev’s ties to Healthy Fatherland, a Russian organization sanctioned by Ukraine for its role in the mass abduction and forced relocation and Russification of Ukrainian children—the same Ukrainian children whose return has been officially adopted by Melania Trump as one of her charitable endeavors.
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return → add → endeavors
The images of the event shared by the Trump family did not include Kremlev and his entourage.
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images → share → Kremlev
However, at least one group photo including Kremlev has since surfaced through a friend of the bride, despite his absence from all images released by the Trumps themselves.
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photo → include → Trumps
The Trumps’ account is uneven: both Trump, Jr’s wife and his spokesperson described Kremlev as a “dear” and “personal” friend, respectively, whereas Eric Trump’s spokesperson told ProPublica he had “absolutely no clue” who the man was.
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man → describe → clue
As far as we can see, Kremlev’s part in the happy event was not advertised by the Trumps, yet it was not exactly hidden, either.
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it → see → Trumps
Guests were reportedly puzzled by the presence of a large Russian-speaking contingent.
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Guests → puzzle → contingent
If anything, this sounds more like a hostage-taking operation than a business deal, let alone an innocent gift.
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this → sound → deal
Although many details are still unclear and we are going to find out a lot more in the coming days, what we can hypothesize from the available information is that President Trump felt uncomfortable sharing the scene with the company that for some reason needed to inject Kremlin money into a Trump family event, and yet not uncomfortable enough to prevent said financial and personal injection altogether.
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that → go → injection
His son, it would seem, does not possess any such strategic thinking.
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it → seem → thinking
The Kremlin, on the other hand, seems to have made sure not just that the link could be traced back to it, but that it could not be missed.
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it → seem → it
They could have sent somebody unremarkable, somebody who blended in.
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who → send → somebody
They could have paid a couple of million dollars, and then it would have looked like the usual Trump greed.
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it → pay → greed
But by paying such an insignificant amount and sending such an unmissable figure as their poster child, they may well have laid the groundwork for something—though whether a stick or a carrot remains to be seen.
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stick → pay → something
As the midterm elections, which Republicans are expected to lose spectacularly, draw closer, Trump’s usefulness to Moscow is going to diminish.
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usefulness → expect → Moscow
In fact, despite all his efforts, he has not managed to be quite as helpful to the Kremlin as it had hoped.
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it → manage → Kremlin
If I had to hazard a guess, it would be that once Moscow knows the source is burned, it might just slowly “divest” of him.
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it → have → him
Contrary to what Trump might think, there is no honor among thieves, and certainly none in the Kremlin.
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Trump → think → Kremlin
One way or another, the fireworks Moscow paid for will provide lengthy entertainment for those of us who were not present at the event.
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who → pay → event
Ines Burrell is a geopolitical analyst and political risk consultant based in the UK.
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Burrell → base → UK
Born in the Baltics, with a degree in International Relations from the University of Exeter, she writes and gives live commentary on European security and Russia.
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she → bear → security
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