A DANGEROUS new front has opened in the Middle East war.
asserted
front → open → war
This has widened the regional conflict and added another layer to the escalating confrontation between the US and Iran.
asserted
This → widen → US
The entry of new actors, Iran-aligned Ansarullah Houthis and Iraqi militias, poses a serious security and economic threat to Saudi Arabia.
asserted
entry → align → Arabia
Oil prices have soared as a result and fuel supplies to global markets have become more uncertain.
asserted
supplies → soar → markets
Diplomacy is deadlocked.
asserted
Diplomacy → deadlocke → ?
Efforts to revive talks between the US and Iran had stalled before these developments.
asserted
Efforts → revive → developments
Now they appear to have hit a wall.
asserted
they → appear → wall
The dramatic turn of events came with the Houthis’ lightning military offensive along Yemen’s west coast, which culminated in their capture of the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha and Perim island in the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
asserted
which → come → strait
This gave them control of a key shipping route.
asserted
This → give → route
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces failed to prevent the advance and the loss of more strategic territory to the Houthis.
asserted
forces → back → Houthis
At the same time, the Houthis launched attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure.
asserted
Houthis → launch → infrastructure
The vital East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia was forced to close after a drone strike by Iraq-based militias.
asserted
pipeline → force → militias
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of another maritime chokepoint — the narrow Bab al-Mandeb strait — has severely constrained KSA’s ability to export oil.
asserted
closure → constrain → oil
Tehran claims the Houthis are acting independently.
uncertain
Houthis → claim → ?
Nevertheless, the action by the Houthis and Iraqi militias could have been coordinated by Iran to mount pressure on the US and counter its attempt to loosen Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz by American warships escorting more vessels through the waterway.
uncertain
action → coordinate → waterway
It may also be a response to US economic warfare which is placing further strain on the Iranian economy.
uncertain
which → place → economy
Multiple Saudi air strikes on the Houthis have failed to dislodge them from the territory they have seized across Yemen.
asserted
they → fail → Yemen
The militia continues to control the entire western coast of the country along the Red Sea.
asserted
militia → continue → Sea
The fighting marks the re-eruption of a conflict that began in 2014 in Yemen’s civil war between a Saudi-led coalition spearheaded by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Houthis.
asserted
that → mark → Salman
This came to a halt with a ceasefire in 2022.
asserted
This → come → 2022
But the truce broke down this July when the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports following an attack on Sanaa airport by Saudi-backed forces.
asserted
Houthis → break → forces
Beyond the economic fallout the political implications of a spreading conflict are also serious.
asserted
implications → spread → conflict
The deteriorating situation confronts MBS with a dilemma: to escalate or pursue a diplomatic path.
asserted
situation → deteriorate → path
His efforts to secure US military intervention have not succeeded so far although there are unconfirmed reports that the US is weighing options to launch military strikes against the Houthis.
uncertain
US → secure → Houthis
He spoke twice to President Donald Trump asking for direct US help but Washington has been reluctant to join the fight.
asserted
Washington → speak → fight
“The Houthis called us and they don’t want to fight with us,” he said.
asserted
he → call → us
“They don’t want us to go after them and would much prefer not having us involved, and they’re letting most ships go through.
asserted
ships → want → them
It’s just one country they’re not too happy with.
asserted
they → ’ → ?
And we’ll get that straightened out.”
asserted
that → get → ?
The remarks indicate Trump’s unwillingness to intervene even as his most important Gulf ally comes under fierce attack.
asserted
ally → indicate → attack
Washington clearly doesn’t want to shift focus from the conflict with Iran, where it is bogged down, having failed to gain the upper hand and compel Iran to submit to its demands.
asserted
it → want → demands
The US military is already overstretched and facing a serious munition shortfall after nearly seven months of war.
asserted
military → face → war
These problems will worsen if the US intervenes in the Saudi-Houthis conflict.
asserted
US → worsen → conflict
The US Central Command estimates the Iran war has cost over $43 billion.
asserted
war → estimate → billion
Meanwhile, speculation that Riyadh may invoke the Makkah joint defence agreement with Pakistan and Turkiye has so far come to nothing.
uncertain
Riyadh → invoke → nothing
Pakistan has given no indication of going beyond verbal support to the kingdom and condemnation of Houthi actions even though it has troops and fighter jets deployed there.
asserted
it → give → troops
As the Foreign Office spokesman put it, the pact is defensive in nature and no military plan is under discussion.
asserted
plan → put → discussion
Prince Mohammed has however held talks with the Centcom chief amid reports that the US is helping KSA with targeting and intelligence.
asserted
US → hold → targeting
For all the assessments by many Western analysts that Iran’s regional allies have been weakened by the war with the US, the latest events show this is not the case.
asserted
this → weaken → US
The ‘axis of resistance’ is not only intact but potent enough to launch a two-pronged assault on KSA plunging it into a crisis.
asserted
axis → launch → crisis
…and 16 more, not listed.
The Aporia
