Prices at the pump for diesel and other fuels are hitting fresh highs as the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have not only choked off crude supplies but also damaged refineries, with the resulting capacity constraints increasingly being felt.
asserted
constraints → hit → refineries
How much crude is lacking?
asserted
crude → lack → ?
French officials recently estimated that the global market is missing about 10 million barrels of crude oil per day.
asserted
market → estimate → day
It is a considerable amount given the global economy had been consuming on the order of 105 million barrels per day before the Middle East conflict broke out.
asserted
conflict → give → day
Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz shut in around 20 million barrels per day initially, but Saudi Arabia shifted some exports to the Red Sea, and some tankers resumed transits.
asserted
tankers → shut → transits
Saudi exports via the Red Sea are now down as Yemen’s Houthi rebels have gained control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
asserted
rebels → gain → Strait
The shock on global markets has been attenuated because nations had ample commercial and strategic reserves, as production had outstripped consumption in 2025.
asserted
production → attenuate → 2025
Meanwhile, consumption has dropped by more than one million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), with China in particular sharply reducing crude imports and shifting to other energy sources.
uncertain
China → drop → sources
The IEA estimates that what it calls observed global oil stocks are now down by around 507 million barrels from before the war.
asserted
calls → estimate → war
This figure does not include countries like China that do not report data on their reserves.
asserted
that → include → reserves
Diesel prices have been setting fresh records in both Europe and the United States.
asserted
prices → set → Europe
It is at a record average of $6.52 per gallon in the United States, according to the AAA automobile association,
uncertain
It → accord → association
In France, it hit a record average of 2.41 euros per liter (around $10.40 a gallon) on Sunday, according to an AFP analysis.
uncertain
it → hit → analysis
“The current world energy crisis, then, is largely a crisis in petroleum products, refined from crude oil, rather than in petroleum itself,” Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote in a recent post.
asserted
Krugman → refine → post
Western nations have banned the import of Russian petroleum products, and Russia has also introduced fuel export bans as Ukrainian attacks have damaged its refineries.
asserted
attacks → ban → refineries
That has left Russia’s remaining buyers scrambling for supplies, pushing up prices.
asserted
That → leave → prices
Gulf nations are also big exporters of refined petroleum products, and Iranians have targeted refineries in the region.
asserted
Iranians → target → region
That means that even if transit through the Strait of Hormuz were to resume immediately, the diesel market would remain tight for some time.
asserted
market → mean → time
“Diesel prices have risen across all regions because the disruption is global, but Europe is particularly exposed,” as it is a net importer of the fuel, said Janiv Shah, vice president at the consultancy Rystad Energy.
asserted
Shah → rise → consultancy
“Technically, there is some unused capacity on paper, but very little that can be activated quickly and supplied with the right crude,” Shah said.
asserted
Shah → be → crude
A resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would likely be the quickest way to bring down prices, he said, as it would allow Asian refineries to be supplied.
asserted
refineries → bring → prices
Toril Bosoni, head of the International Energy Agency’s oil industry and markets division, warned last week that “if Gulf supplies remain constrained in the coming months and commercial inventory buffers continue to deplete rapidly, higher prices and further demand reductions may be required to close the supply-demand gap”.
uncertain
prices → warn → gap
Rystad’s Shah said that rising prices would help reduce diesel consumption, but that the impact would be limited.
asserted
impact → say → consumption
“Diesel demand is relatively insensitive in the short term because trucking, agriculture, construction and industry have few immediate alternatives,” he told AFP.
asserted
he → have → AFP
The Aporia
