On September 9, President Donald Trump announced his intention to pay every American adult $5,000 if his party wins the House and the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.
asserted
party → announce → elections
"If the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000," Trump said, calling the move the "Trump Dividend."
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Trump → win → move
The announcement was widely criticized, with some calling it "income redistribution" and "socialism."
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some → criticize → it
But Americans weren't the only ones condemning the proposal.
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Americans → condemn → proposal
In Argentina, many realized they had seen a similar move in 2023 when Sergio Massa, then economy minister and Peronist presidential candidate, unveiled a plan that essentially sought to buy votes before the presidential election.
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that → realize → election
Trump is using a similar strategy to one that helped push Argentina to the brink of economic catastrophe, risking America's economic future.
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that → use → future
As I've argued before, many of Trump's policies resemble those of the Kirchnerist government that held power in Argentina for almost two decades.
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that → argue → decades
The Kirchnerist government's tenure culminated in 2023 under President Alberto Fernández and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, with 211 percent annual inflation largely due to their obscene fiscal irresponsibility.
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tenure → culminate → irresponsibility
Some of that fiscal irresponsibility rested with Massa.
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Some → rest → Massa
Among other inflationary measures, Massa unveiled a plan to bribe voters two months before the 2023 election: his "Plan Platita" ("Little Money Plan").
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Massa → unveil → election
It essentially consisted of handing out money to voters via one-time payments to most workers, bonuses for retirees and the unemployed, tax cuts and exemptions for some, expanded food card benefits, and price caps on tens of thousands of products, among other measures.
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It → consist → measures
Some estimates claim that the plan came to over 1 percent of Argentina's GDP.
uncertain
plan → claim → GDP
With no access to credit markets, the government financed the plan by printing pesos— flooding the economy with new currency, driving down the peso's value and driving up prices.
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government → finance → prices
Economists at the time warned that the plan was a "sign of desperation" and a short-sighted attempt to sustain buying power temporarily amid high inflation.
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plan → warn → inflation
They predicted that it would worsen economic problems, and they were right.
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they → predict → problems
Massa's plan was perceived at the time as an attempt to buy votes and keep Kirchnerism in power.
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plan → perceive → power
Critics similarly called Trump's plan a "bribe" intended to keep Republicans in Congress.
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Critics → call → Congress
Massa's plan differed from Trump's in that it wasn't contingent on winning the election; Trump's approach is more brazen.
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approach → differ → election
But like Massa's plan, Trump's proposal is irresponsible and divorced from reality, as even some conservatives have noted.
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conservatives → divorce → reality
The "dividends" would cost $1.2 trillion, according to a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget report.
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dividends → cost → report
"Deficits would rise from a projected 5.8% of GDP this year to 9.4% in 2027," it suggests.
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it → rise → 2027
Massa ended up financing his plan with monetary emission.
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Massa → end → emission
Where is the money for Trump's plan coming from?
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money → come → plan
Vice President J.D. Vance said it would come from tariff revenue.
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it → say → revenue
"All of these tariffs … those penalties have generated a lot of revenue."
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All → generate → revenue
But Vance's vague explanations don't add up.
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explanations → add → ?
"Revenue from tariffs, which are really just taxes on Americans, will not come close to covering this proposed expenditure," explains Reason's Eric Boehm.
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Boehm → come → expenditure
"Tariff revenue has been in negative territory in recent months as the Trump administration issues refunds for the illegal tariffs it levied last year.
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it → issue → tariffs
Vance also appears to acknowledge that the proposal would redistribute wealth: He says the administration wants to ensure that "wealth is going to go back to the American people," echoing Kirchnerist rhetoric.
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wealth → appear → rhetoric
Massa's expensive plan to buy votes failed; it was one of the reasons why he lost the presidential runoff to Javier Milei, a fiscally conservative, pro–free market, self-described libertarian candidate.
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he → buy → Milei
Argentines did not avoid catastrophe—inflation was astronomically high at the end of 2023—but they voted the Kirchnerists out of office and narrowly escaped total collapse.
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they → avoid → collapse
The U.S. economy is not nearly as bad as Argentina's was in 2023, but proposals like Trump's inch it closer to trouble.
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proposals → inch → trouble
And America now faces a problem: What's the alternative to fiscal recklessness when the so-called "small-government" party is escalating that recklessness and the Democratic Party is just as irresponsible and short-sighted?
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Party → face → recklessness
Even if Trump's plan never materializes, it shows that his administration is willing to use public money for campaigning and gamble the country's fiscal future, just as the leftists in Argentina did.
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leftists → materialize → Argentina
Americans should heed the warning before their country goes further down Argentina's failed path.
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country → heed → path
This column was first published in The Orange County Register.
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column → publish → Register
The Aporia
