In Bamako, a fuel blockade has exposed the vulnerability of supply routes into the capital.
asserted
blockade → expose → capital
In the north, separatist and armed groups have increasingly coordinated against the state, while the government faces questions over how much territory it can effectively control.
asserted
it → coordinate → territory
On September 10, less than two weeks before Mali’s independence anniversary, the Al Qaeda-affiliated armed group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) attacked an army camp in Dioura in central Mali.
asserted
group → affiliate → Mali
The attack followed an April offensive in which JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), which seeks greater autonomy or independence for northern Mali, coordinated attacks on military and strategic sites in Bamako, Kati, Mopti, Gao and Kidal.
asserted
which → follow → Bamako
Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed in the attacks, which exposed the vulnerability of government forces in several parts of the country.
asserted
which → kill → country
The April offensive followed months of pressure on the capital’s supply lines.
asserted
offensive → follow → lines
Since September 2025, JNIM has targeted fuel tankers and highways carrying fuel from Senegal and Ivory Coast, causing severe shortages in Bamako and disrupting electricity supplies and schooling.
asserted
JNIM → target → supplies
On September 14, more than 900 fuel tankers entered Bamako under military escort, according to the Malian government.
uncertain
tankers → enter → government
But the need to protect such a major operation illustrates the vulnerability of the routes connecting Bamako to its neighbours.
asserted
need → protect → neighbours
The government seized power in a coup in 2020, promising to restore security.
asserted
government → seize → security
The disruption of vital supply routes, however, has highlighted the difficulty of protecting access to the capital across a vast country.
asserted
disruption → highlight → country
A widening armed-group coalition
Northern Mali has long been at the centre of Tuareg demands for greater autonomy or independence.
asserted
coalition → widen → autonomy
What has changed is the degree of coordination between JNIM and the FLA in confronting the government, despite their different long-term objectives.
asserted
changed → change → objectives
Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks, told Al Jazeera that the relationship presents a challenge to the military government’s effort to consolidate control over the country’s territory.
asserted
relationship → tell → territory
“The alliance between JNIM and FLA poses a threat to the government’s consolidation of national territory, which is a key goal of the military.
asserted
which → pose → military
Periodic confrontations between the JNIM-FLA coalition and government forces will continue to undermine a political settlement to the violence,” she said.
asserted
she → continue → violence
Ochieng warned that both sides could harden their positions.
uncertain
sides → warn → positions
“There is a risk of hardline stances both by the military government and armed groups that will pose a challenge in re-establishing a peace deal between the two sides,” she said.
asserted
she → be → sides
She said Mali was likely to continue receiving diplomatic and security support from Algeria, its Alliance of Sahel States (AES) partners (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even Senegal and Togo, representing the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
asserted
Mali → say → States
She said that support could delay a deeper security crisis.
uncertain
support → say → crisis
The April offensive showed the extent of that coordination, despite the groups’ different objectives.
asserted
offensive → show → objectives
JNIM seeks to impose its interpretation of Islamic law, while the FLA is rooted in Tuareg separatist demands for autonomy and independence.
asserted
FLA → seek → autonomy
The two groups have cooperated before, including in 2012 and 2024, but their alliances have broken down over territorial and ideological differences.
asserted
alliances → cooperate → differences
Sovereignty rhetoric outpaces control on the ground
Mali has turned away from former regional and international partners and built new alliances around greater national sovereignty.
asserted
Mali → outpace → sovereignty
Mali’s government has framed its withdrawal from these institutions as an assertion of sovereignty.
asserted
government → frame → sovereignty
But Abubakar Abubakar Usman, a senior lecturer in international and strategic studies at the University of Malaysia, said Mali’s growing reliance on Russia complicates that argument.
asserted
reliance → say → argument
“Mali’s exit from these institutions therefore looks less like an assertion of independence and more like a switching of alliances, from a Western-aligned security order to a Russian-aligned one,” Usman said.
asserted
Usman → look → one
Mali’s withdrawal from ECOWAS alongside Burkina Faso and Niger took effect in January 2025.
asserted
withdrawal → take → January
Human Rights Watch said the withdrawal raised concerns over victims’ access to the ECOWAS Court in cases involving alleged rights abuses.
asserted
withdrawal → say → abuses
The three countries have instead strengthened the AES, while Mali has deepened its military relationship with Russia.
asserted
Mali → strengthen → Russia
The Wagner Group’s paramilitary role has been taken over by Russia’s Africa Corps, which operates under the Russian defence ministry.
asserted
which → take → ministry
But the security situation has continued to deteriorate.
asserted
situation → continue → ?
The April offensive reached sites near the capital and pushed Russian and Malian forces out of positions in the north.
asserted
offensive → reach → north
The September attack in Dioura showed that armed groups can still inflict heavy losses on government forces.
asserted
groups → show → forces
In September 2025, Mali announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC), alongside Burkina Faso and Niger.
asserted
Mali → announce → Faso
Mali’s formal withdrawal began in June and will take a year.
asserted
withdrawal → begin → year
The ICC says withdrawal does not remove obligations while a country remains a member or affect matters already under consideration.
asserted
country → say → consideration
Rights groups have also documented abuses by armed groups, Malian forces and allied Russian fighters.
asserted
groups → document → groups
Human Rights Watch said in June that civilians had suffered serious abuses by multiple sides since fighting intensified in April.
asserted
fighting → say → April
The security challenge also extends beyond Mali’s borders.
asserted
challenge → extend → borders
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
