'The odds of getting anything substantial out of the deep tropics are pretty low,' says one hurricane expert
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expert → get → tropics
As of this writing, there have been only six named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, and most of them only lasted a couple of days.
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most → name → days
So what's going on?
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what → go → ?
"Normally we have to blame like four or five different things, but this year, I think we really can pretty much put all the blame on El Niño," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University.
"
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Klotzbach → have → University
It turns out the "super" El Niño that is under way is putting a clamp on Atlantic hurricane activity.
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that → turn → activity
El Niño is part of a natural cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), involving water in the central Pacific Ocean as well as atmospheric winds.
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Niño → call → Ocean
When the water becomes 0.5 C warmer than average over a particular time frame, it indicates an El Niño event.
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it → become → event
Water that is -0.5 C cooler than average indicates a La Niña event.
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that → indicate → event
The repercussions of these oscillations can be felt around the world.
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repercussions → feel → world
And right now, there is an El Niño advisory, with several models suggesting this could be a historic event.
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this → be → ?
"The anomalies are getting so strong that we might see stronger than 2.4 C anomaly, which is our historical record that was set back in 1982 and 1983 winter.
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that → get → winter
And we're predicting possibly 2.6 to 2.7 C anomalies," said Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
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Long → predict → Oceanic
We have over 90 per cent chance of it being very strong, which is the highest in our category here at NOAA.
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which → have → NOAA
In May, NOAA forecast eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes.
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NOAA → forecast → storms
Its August forecast lowered those ranges to seven to 13 named storms and two to six hurricanes.
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forecast → lower → storms
How does something in the Pacific influence the Atlantic?
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something → influence → Atlantic
How is it that what happens thousands of kilometres away in the middle of the Pacific Ocean influences what happens in the Atlantic?
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what → happen → Atlantic
Long explained that when the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal, they tend to create vertical wind shear in the Atlantic, with strong winds in the upper atmosphere and weaker winds in the lower atmosphere.
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they → explain → atmosphere
"It kind of destroys the hurricane structure that we like to see," Long said.
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Long → destroy → that
"Typically, by the time you get to, say, mid-October, the season is really starting to wind down," Klotzbach said.
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Klotzbach → get → October
"So, to use a baseball quote on these — Yogi Berra used to say, 'It's getting late early.'
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It → use → these
He said it's unlikely that we'll suddenly see an uptick, but we might still see one or two hurricanes form.
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hurricanes → say → uptick
'Super' El Niño didn't cause this year's fires and heat waves, but it's about to take us on a 'wild ride'
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it → cause → ride
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season expected to be below average, thanks to El Niño
"
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season → expect → Niño
I'd be surprised if we end up a season with zero hurricanes, but probably the odds of getting anything substantial out of the deep tropics are pretty low.
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odds → end → tropics
However, there's still a chance that one could develop in the warm Gulf of Mexico.
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one → be → Mexico
"The Caribbean still has lots of wind shear, so possible formations there are probably low, but in the Gulf of [Mexico] we are seeing less wind shear," Long said.
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Long → have → shear
Not quiet everywhere
But El Niño tends to have the opposite effect in the Pacific Ocean, creating heightened hurricane activity.
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Niño → tend → activity
To date, there have been 16 named storms in the Pacific, with another likely to form after publication.
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another → name → publication
The Atlantic basin almost got its first hurricane this past weekend.
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basin → get → hurricane
According to meteorologist and hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Tropical Storm Fay, which formed as a tropical depression on Saturday, reached winds of 112 km/h, falling just short of the Category 1 hurricane wind speeds of 119 km/h.
Interestingly, Fay formed significantly farther north than where most Atlantic hurricanes form.
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hurricanes → accord → km
Most form around 20 degrees north latitude, while Fay formed around 32 degrees north.
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Fay → form → latitude
While this El Niño is responsible for the lack of hurricanes in the Atlantic, it's important to note that there have been a few short-lived tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have impacted communities along the coast, including in Louisiana.
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that → note → Louisiana
This El Niño is forecast to peak in November or December, though it will persist into 2027.
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it → forecast → 2027
What that means for next year's hurricane season is still unknown.
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means → mean → season
"Typically, the year after an El Niño, you have no El Niño and a warmer Atlantic.
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you → have → Niño
So we can't say for sure that it's going to be a busy season next year," Klotzbach said.
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Klotzbach → say → ?
The Aporia
