Two years ago, POLARIS National Security documented the price Americans paid for the Biden-Harris administration’s deterrence failures around the world.
asserted
Americans → document → world
After the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, failing to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine, abetting the worst border crisis in U.S. history, and bankrolling Iran’s terrorism apparatus before Oct. 7, 2023, the Biden-Harris administration ran up the tab for American taxpayers, leaving them to foot the bill for crises of its own making.
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administration → fail → making
The cost of this approach exceeded $381 billion, or nearly $3,000 from every American household.
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cost → exceed → household
Now, the Trump administration is again proving that peace through strength is not only strategically effective, but also cost-effective.
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peace → prove → strength
POLARIS National Security’s latest report puts a number on those dividends.
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report → put → dividends
Peace through strength policies pursued by the Trump administration are averting approximately $512 billion in costs that likely would have been imposed on taxpayers under a second Biden-Harris term.
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that → pursue → term
Against the Trump administration’s $186 billion in incurred, committed, or projected investments to restore deterrence and resolve inherited crises, that produces $326 billion in net taxpayer savings over four years, or nearly $2,500 per American household.
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that → incur → household
These estimates compare projected four-year taxpayer costs under a second Biden-Harris term with the Trump administration’s actual, committed, and projected costs, using Biden-era spending patterns as baselines.
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estimates → compare → baselines
Every dollar put toward restoring deterrence by the Trump administration is averting roughly $3 in costs that more Biden-Harris policies would have imposed on taxpayers.
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policies → put → taxpayers
Put another way: Peace through strength is delivering a nearly 3-to-1 return for the American public.
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Peace → Put → public
These are projections, but they illustrate the fiscal premium Americans pay when deterrence fails.
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deterrence → illustrate → premium
Instead of reactively paying to clean up crises after they erupt, the administration has moved theater by theater to strengthen deterrence, shift security burdens onto capable partners, and pursue peace before conflicts escalate and force greater expenditures.
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conflicts → pay → expenditures
National security spending is often viewed as a cost.
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spending → view → cost
But the peace through strength record shows the cost of deterrence pales in comparison to the cost of letting it fail.
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it → show → cost
To be sure, policies of deterrence require substantial investment, and further funding is required to rebuild our military.
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funding → require → military
But contrary to what progressives wishcast, the relevant fiscal comparison is not defense spending versus domestic priorities.
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comparison → wishcast → priorities
It is the cost of maintaining deterrence versus the far greater cost of wars and crises when deterrence fails.
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deterrence → maintain → wars
The Biden-Harris border crisis illustrates this dynamic.
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crisis → illustrate → dynamic
Millions of illegal immigrants entered the country, while communities across America absorbed new costs imposed on schools, hospitals, law enforcement, housing, and social services.
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communities → enter → schools
President Donald Trump’s actions have reversed that trajectory.
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actions → reverse → trajectory
By reducing “gotaways,” ending mass parole, and reducing the settled illegal immigrant population, the United States has dramatically cut costs.
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States → reduce → costs
The Trump administration’s border security measures alone avert $158 billion in taxpayer costs.
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measures → avert → costs
Ukraine provides another example.
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Ukraine → provide → example
After Joe Biden failed to deter Putin’s invasion, the U.S. committed more than $175 billion in assistance to Ukraine, while European nations were allowed to remain far too dependent on Washington to shoulder the burden of aiding Ukraine, while failing to invest in their own defense capabilities, creating a double decker deterrence failure.
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nations → fail → failure
Trump changed that equation, pressing NATO allies to invest in their security and shoulder more of the financial burden of Ukraine’s war effort.
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Trump → change → effort
Now, Europe is investing in America’s defense industrial base, getting Ukraine the weapons it needs, and reducing the burden on American taxpayers.
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it → invest → taxpayers
This approach is averting $258 billion in congressional appropriations — all while giving American workers and defense manufacturers the benefits of increased production.
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approach → avert → production
The Middle East offers another case in point.
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East → offer → point
Under the Biden-Harris administration, the U.S. sought to buy restraint from Iran and its terrorist proxies with accommodation while constraining our strongest ally in the region, Israel.
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U.S. → seek → region
The Trump administration has pursued a different strategy, using American power to defeat rivals and strengthen partners while creating conditions for peace.
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administration → pursue → peace
By brokering the Gaza peace deal, halting Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and decimating Iran’s regime militarily, the Trump administration has averted $49 billion in costs that a second Biden-Harris term was likely to have incurred, even factoring in the costs of degrading Iran.
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term → broker → Iran
Foreign assistance provides a final example of the same principle.
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assistance → provide → principle
Under the Biden-Harris administration, America’s foreign aid system failed to deter waste, abuse, and mission drift.
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system → fail → waste
The Trump administration confronted USAID’s bureaucratic excesses, eliminated destructive programs, and conditioned assistance on alignment with U.S. interests.
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administration → confront → interests
Working with Congress, it has preserved many core security, humanitarian, and global health priorities while restructuring the assistance apparatus — changes projected to save taxpayers $47 billion.
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it → work → billion
The true dividends of deterrence are not captured in spreadsheets.
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dividends → capture → spreadsheets
They are measured in the crises that are prevented.
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that → measure → crises
A nuclear-armed Iran sending the U.S. economy into a tailspin, tensions with China turning into a devastating war, Russian attacks spreading westward — stopping these crises is the ultimate return on investment for American taxpayers.
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stopping → arm → taxpayers
The Biden-Harris years demonstrated that weakness does not save money — it costs dearly.
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it → demonstrate → money
Policies of retreat simply postpone the bill and make it larger when it lands.
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it → postpone → bill
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
