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Lose to win: How the Tempo's final two games could boost their odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft

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Cite

Osman, L. (2026, September 22). Lose to win: How the Tempo's final two games could boost their odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/sports/tempo/the-toronto-tempo-can-t-make-the-playoffs-this-season-but-the-franchise-s-future-could-change-in-a-big-way-over-the-next-two-games/article_78063f84-329d-4f70-9be2-2ae9438cfe53.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-09-22 · by Libaan Osman

Quick Summary

The Toronto Tempo could improve their chances of securing the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft by losing their final two games, which would put them ahead or tied with the Connecticut Sun for the best odds. Currently, the Tempo have a .262 winning percentage (11-31 record), while the Sun’s two-year cumulative record is .244 (21-65). The draft lottery system considers teams' records over the past two seasons but allows expansion teams like Toronto to be evaluated based solely on their current season. If both teams finish with identical winning percentages, tiebreaking rules will determine who gets a better chance in the lottery.
Written by AI on 2026-09-22, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The Toronto Tempo lost their final two games of the season: first to the Chicago Sky by a score of 97-85, then to the Connecticut Sun in Connecticut's last home game before moving to Houston. These losses could put them in prime position for the top pick in the 2027 WNBA draft. The Tempo have dropped seven straight games and now stand at 11-31. Despite this poor form, their record gives them a high chance of landing one of the top picks in next year's lottery. Teams can't drop more than two spots from where they'd be based on win-loss records alone, so Toronto is guaranteed no worse than a fourth overall pick. This could dramatically alter the future direction of the team as it aims to draft standout college players like Juju Watkins or Hannah Hidalgo.

Written for “WNBA Draft Odds TempoSquared” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 2 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 WNBA Draft Odds TempoSquared
Sports · 3 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 8 claims Outlet record 64/100
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 23 claims Outlet record 64/100
Toronto Star
Hedges 2 of 33 claims Outlet record 64/100
“Article A describes the actual game results of Toronto Tempo's last home game against New York Liberty on September 21st, while Article B discusses the potential impact of losing their final two games (including the one mentioned in Article A) on draft odds.”
New York Post
Hedges 1 of 17 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles describe different upcoming games involving distinct teams, not the same specific event.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
24
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
12%
3 of 24 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
3
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-22 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11614 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Libaan Osman
17 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 After an injury-riddled season saw the Tempo fall to the bottom of the standings, general manager Monica Wright Rogers will have her hands full to improve the roster.
🔮 It was the second time in Barnes’ NBA career where he couldn’t convert a field goal.
🔮 He’s already relishing the chance to guard star forwards Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard in practice and embracing being the first player on the team bus, while acknowledging he might have to spend some time in Mississauga with the Raptors’ G League affiliate team to get developmental reps. “Obviously, I want to be out there on the court with those guys.
🔮 All 82 games will be aired in Canada on either TSN or Sportsnet.
🔮 It seemed like only yesterday that the former rugby player, who represented Canada at the World Cup in 2014 and 2017, had to compete on university side fields with maybe 120 people in attendance.
🔮 When Paige DeNeve was asked if she would be attending Canada’s women’s rugby match against England in Toronto on Friday, it almost felt like an insult.
🔮 That iconic No. 7 will hang up in the rafter of Scotiabank Arena later this season as the second jersey the organization will retire.
🔮 I thought Lewis might have been describing me.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · I tried out for the Raptors 905 — and barely survived
🔮 It’s unclear what his role will be with the Raptors.
🔮 All eyes were on Kawhi Leonard at Raptors media day, but other topics came up that will play a big part to how the season develops.
Also by Libaan Osman
'What it do baby!'
2026-10-21 · Toronto Star
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 17 articles by Libaan Osman →

Topics

Connecticut Tempo The Toronto Tempo Toronto WNBA

Subjects

Toronto GPE · 6× WNBA ORG · 5× Connecticut GPE · 4× Tempo ORG · 3× Star ORG · 2× Juju Watkins PERSON · 1× The Toronto Tempo ORG · 1× USC ORG · 1× the Chicago Sky ORG · 1× the Connecticut Sun ORG · 1×

Narrative

If there is an odd number of combinations, the team that loses the tiebreaker (for example, has the worst 2026 record), would get the extra combination and be slotted above the other team should neither be selected in the lottery.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-22
🔮 The Toronto Tempo have a shot at a franchise-altering draft pick — and losing their final two games of the season could be their biggest wins of the season.

Claims (24 extracted, 3 hedged)

The Toronto Tempo have a shot at a franchise-altering draft pick — and losing their final two games of the season could be their biggest wins of the season. uncertain
losing → have → season
If the Tempo lose their last two games against the Chicago Sky and the Connecticut Sun, it could push them into having the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft — or into a tiebreak with Connecticut — in a class that some consider a three-way race between college basketball stars Juju Watkins of USC, Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Texas’ Madison Booker. uncertain
some → lose → USC
The league confirmed to the Star that as in previous years, teams can’t drop more than two slots in the lottery, which means that Toronto will have at least a top-four pick. asserted
Toronto → confirm → pick
The Tempo’s inaugural season has been riddled with injuries, causing the team to fall to the bottom of the standings in the second half of the season. asserted
team → riddle → season
Once hovering around a .500 record in late June, they’ve lost 20 of their past 22 games. asserted
they → hover → games
How the lottery works Lottery odds are based on the cumulative records of the past two WNBA regular seasons for the seven teams that do not make the playoffs. asserted
that → work → playoffs
The teams with the worst two-year winning percentage have the highest odds for the top pick. asserted
teams → have → pick
Since Toronto and Portland are expansion teams in their first season, only this year’s winning percentage is considered. asserted
percentage → consider → season
Toronto currently has the third-worst record in the league (11-31), but the second-best odds at the top pick. asserted
Toronto → have → pick
That could change when the Tempo go head-to-head with the Sun in Thursday’s season finale. uncertain
Tempo → change → finale
Toronto’s winning percentage with two games left is at .262. asserted
percentage → leave → .262
Connecticut’s combined two-year record was at 21-65, a .244 winning percentage. asserted
record → combine → 21
Despite having the worst record in the league at 8-35, Seattle was 23-21 in 2025 so currently has the fourth worst winning percentage. asserted
Seattle → have → percentage
To determine the WNBA draft order, 14 balls are fed into the lottery machine, and four are drawn to create a combination. asserted
four → determine → combination
The team holding that combination wins the No. 1 pick, and the process repeats for the second selection. asserted
process → hold → selection
The remaining non-playoff teams are then slotted by the worst combined two-year record. asserted
teams → remain → record
How ties are broken For Toronto to have the best odds at the No. 1 pick, it needs Connecticut to win its final two games of the season and the Tempo to lose both. asserted
Tempo → break → both
But if Connecticut splits its final two games of the season and Toronto loses its last two games, both teams would finish with an identical .250 winning percentage and have the same odds. asserted
teams → split → odds
What happens next? asserted
What → happen → ?
The WNBA would then combine the odds of tied teams and divide them equally. asserted
WNBA → combine → them
If there is an odd number of combinations, the team that loses the tiebreaker (for example, has the worst 2026 record), would get the extra combination and be slotted above the other team should neither be selected in the lottery. asserted
neither → be → lottery
The team slotted higher goes into the WNBA’s draft lottery later this year with a marginally better chance at the top pick. asserted
team → slot → pick
Lottery odds percentages have not yet been revealed by the WNBA. asserted
percentages → reveal → WNBA
A league spokesperson told the Star it likely won’t be announced this week. asserted
it → tell → Star
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