The ministerial week of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) is meant to be the moment when the world comes together.
asserted
world → mean → Assembly
Bad faith drives out good ideas.
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faith → drive → ideas
Hard power makes a mockery of international law.
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power → make → law
Even those with shared goals too often operate in silos.
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those → share → silos
And it is more egregious when the world has more resources than ever before.
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world → have → resources
We are witnessing a catastrophic collapse of global leadership at the exact moment humanity has all the risks of hyper-connectivity and all the potential of untold capital.
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humanity → witness → capital
My topic today addresses this dynamic.
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topic → address → dynamic
The twin and overlapping perils of war and climate change are breaking records.
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perils → break → records
Yet political will, financial investment, and media attention have vanished.
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will → vanish → ?
When I was environment secretary in the UK twenty years ago, there was a fear that discussion of managing the effects of climate change (adaptation) meant going soft on preventing climate change (mitigation).
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discussion → be → change
But today, the failures and limits of mitigation mean we have no choice but to seek urgent mitigation and adaptation at the same time.
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we → mean → time
Adaptation means different things in different places.
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Adaptation → mean → places
For the next 25 minutes, I will turn the tables.
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I → turn → tables
More air conditioning is not the answer for the people who I want to place centre stage today.
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I → want → who
For these hundreds of millions of people, the question is not whether a house is comfortable, but whether a family has safe shelter.
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family → have → shelter
Not whether the train runs on time, but whether the harvest comes at all.
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harvest → run → time
Not whether water use is restricted, but whether there is any safe water to drink.
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use → restrict → ?
And not simply whether temperatures rise, but how rising temperatures interact with conflict, poverty, and political fragility in ways that destroy the mechanisms people once relied upon to survive.
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people → rise → mechanisms
Overlapping crises of conflict and climate
The threat of extreme heat in Europe is real and has its own death toll.
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threat → overlap → toll
But the facts are that the places most vulnerable to climate change are increasingly the same places afflicted by conflict and extreme fragility.
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places → afflict → conflict
The people living there have contributed the least to climate change.
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people → live → change
They didn't burn the fossil fuels, but their farms and herds live or die by rainfall in a way that a diesel-and-concrete economy does not.
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economy → burn → way
Yet these are the people who get the least when it comes to funds for climate adaptation.
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it → get → adaptation
That is what we have to put right.
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we → have → what
Today, 860 million people, nearly everyone living in a conflict-affected state, also lives in a country ranked in the top quartile of countries affected by climate vulnerability.
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people → live → vulnerability
By 2030, climate shocks are predicted to plunge more than 130 million people into extreme poverty; by the same year, 60 per cent of the world’s extreme poor will be trapped in fragile states and war zones.
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cent → predict → states
These are countries where climate exposure meets the consequences of conflict: weakened institutions, divided land, poverty and massive displacement of people.
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exposure → meet → people
In many, agriculture accounts for close to a quarter of economic output, while only a tiny proportion of cultivated land is irrigated.
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proportion → account → land
Higher temperatures increase evaporation and dry soil.
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temperatures → increase → evaporation
Rainfall becomes more erratic.
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Rainfall → become → ?
Crop yields decline.
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yields → decline → ?
Livestock suffers heat stress.
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Livestock → suffer → stress
Household incomes fall.
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incomes → fall → ?
Then food prices rise.
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prices → rise → ?
Assets are sold.
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Assets → sell → ?
Children are taken out of school.
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Children → take → school
Water points and wells dry up.
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points → dry → ?
Malnutrition, unsafe water, and food insecurity hit together.
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Malnutrition → hit → ?
So people move.
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people → move → ?
And the coping mechanisms for the next shock become weaker.
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mechanisms → cop → shock
…and 109 more, not listed.
The Aporia
