Donald Trump has spent years telling Americans that China has been eating America's lunch.
asserted
China → spend → lunch
On Wednesday, he will go to the airport to welcome the man who owns the restaurant.
asserted
who → go → restaurant
In an unprecedented spectacle, Trump will schlep where no US President has gone before – travel to Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington, DC, to personally receive Chinese President Xi Jinping as he arrives for a three-day state visit, briefly transforming himself from an imperious tariff overlord to a deferential tarmac man.
asserted
he → schlep → man
The optics will be hard to miss.
asserted
optics → miss → ?
Xi's airbase reception is to be followed by an elaborate ceremonial welcome at the White House the following day, including a 479-member military honour guard, a presidential salute and military review in the Rose Garden, and a flyover featuring a B-2 Spirit bomber escorted by four F-22 Raptors in a show aimed at impressing a country that appears to have passed the stage of being impressed.
asserted
that → follow → stage
Diplomatic scholars are already weighing in, noting that the last US Presidents to go to the airport to receive a foreign dignitary were Obama and Bush, who went to Andrews AFB to receive Pope Francis and Pope Benedict, respectively.
asserted
who → weigh → Francis
Xi did not go to the airport to welcome the US President when Trump went on a state visit in May and instead sent his Vice President Han Zheng and other officials.
uncertain
Trump → go → President
“Xi wasn't waiting for him, there were no flyovers, and there was no meeting of the first ladies…
asserted
Xi → wait → ladies
the asymmetry in pageantry reflects a broader asymmetry in the relationship: Beijing believes rare earths tamed Washington, and Washington at times seems to agree,” noted Rush Doshi, a former NSC official whose remit in the Biden administration included China and Taiwan.
asserted
remit → reflect → China
Trump has spent years portraying China as the villain in America's economic travails -- stealer of American jobs, manipulator of trade, technological predator and beneficiary of what he has repeatedly described as an unfair trading relationship.
asserted
he → spend → relationship
He launched a tariff war designed to force Beijing to bend, but Doshi sees China emerging as a peer instead.
asserted
China → launch → peer
“Beijing’s ability to turn back US tariffs marked an inflexion point that established China as a true peer of the US, albeit one ahead on some metrics of power and behind on others,” he wrote in a preview of the summit.
asserted
he → turn → summit
Having flexed its rare earths muscle, China doesn’t seem too impressed either by Trump rolling out US corporate power -- or American oligarchy in the eyes of some critics.
asserted
Trump → flex → critics
Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, Sam Altman, Tim Cook, Jane Fraser, and Michael Dell are among those slated to attend a Trump-Xi meeting, a powerlist topped by two Indian-Americans –
Google’s Sundar Pichai and Microsoft's Satya Nadella.
asserted
Bezos → slat → Pichai
Xi conspicuously is not bringing any notable Chinese executives with him.
asserted
Xi → bring → him
Trade and tariffs are expected to dominate the agenda, with an extension of the fragile trade truce, possible reciprocal tariff reductions, agricultural purchases and mechanisms for managing bilateral commerce up for discussion.
asserted
Trade → expect → discussion
The leaders are also expected to discuss rare earths and critical minerals, semiconductor export controls, artificial intelligence, intellectual property and technology restrictions.
asserted
leaders → expect → earths
Then there are the geopolitical files – Taiwan, Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine – where the two sides are locked in indirect conflict.
asserted
sides → be → conflict
While neither side is calling it a G-2, it is increasingly starting to look like that, to much consternation in India, which has benefited from American efforts to diversify supply chains away from China.
asserted
which → call → China
While a prolonged technology confrontation has encouraged manufacturers to consider India as an alternative production base, a US-Chinese accommodation could reduce some of that strategic pressure on Beijing.
uncertain
accommodation → encourage → Beijing
At the same time, Indian mandarins say New Delhi has no interest in seeing Washington and Beijing stumble into confrontation over Taiwan, rare earths or the South China Sea.
asserted
Washington → say → Taiwan
Nor does it want the global economy repeatedly held hostage by tariff exchanges between its two largest external economic partners.
asserted
economy → want → partners
The Indian calculation, therefore, is less about choosing Washington over Beijing than ensuring that an emerging G2 does not become a condominium over Asia.
asserted
G2 → choose → Asia
The Aporia
