On Monday, Rep. Ashley Hinson, President Donald Trump’s endorsed nominee in Iowa’s Senate race, made a public break from the president, calling for an end to the Iran War.
asserted
Hinson → endorse → War
That was surprising considering that just last week, before Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the House of Representatives a day early, Hinson voted against a War Powers Act resolution to rein in Trump’s war.
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Hinson → consider → war
This came despite two of her Iowa Republican colleagues running for re-election — Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks — voting for the resolution.
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two → come → resolution
But the pain at the gas tank is becoming too much across the board.
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pain → become → board
Hence, she listed a series of policies to provide relief for Iowans, like pausing the gas tax and suspending exports of diesel fuel.
“While doing this, we should also ensure our highway trust fund is replenished, so that Iowans don’t suffer from crumbling roads and bridges while relief comes our way now,” Hinson said.
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Hinson → list → roads
“These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end.”
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war → lower → end
In response, Josh Turek, the Paralympian-turned Democratic nominee for Senate, criticized Hinson for flip-flopping.
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Turek → turn → flopping
“You voted seven times to continue it, including just last week,” he posted on X.
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he → vote → X.
“It's time to actually end the forever wars and put Iowa and Iowans first.
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It → end → Iowa
But on Tuesday, Republicans’ reasons for breaking with Trump on Iran became clear.
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reasons → break → Iran
Marist University released a poll showing Turek besting Hinson by eight points.
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Turek → release → points
Lest anyone think that poll is an outlier, a YouGov poll showed Turek with a one-point lead in Iowa.
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poll → think → Iowa
All of this seems to show that Iowa, which has undergone a political transformation in the past 15 years to become a staunchly Republican state, is prime for a Democratic takeover.
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which → seem → takeover
For many Democrats, the last time they felt good about Iowa came in 2008 when Barack Obama turned his stunning win in the state’s presidential caucuses into winning the Hawkeye State by nine points in the general election.
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Obama → feel → election
That same year, Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin would win his last term.
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Harkin → win → term
Obama would win again in 2012 by just under 6 percentage points.
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Obama → win → points
In 2010, Republicans won the governorship and took over the state House of Representatives.
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Republicans → win → Representatives
In 2014, Harkin would retire and Joni Ernst would take over his seat.
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Ernst → retire → seat
In 2016, Iowa would by more than 15 points to vote for Trump
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Iowa → vote → Trump
Republicans would take control of the state senate.
Democrats would win three House seats in the 2018 midterm elections, only for Iowa to have an all-Republican delegation by 2022.
asserted
Iowa → take → 2022
Joe Biden would lose Iowa and Joni Ernst would win her re-election in 2020.
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Ernst → lose → 2020
But Trump has now taken a series of steps in Iowa that have put Republicans at risk in the state.
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that → take → state
For one, the war in Iran has caused the price of diesel fuel, which farmers use for tractors and other equipment, to skyrocket.
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farmers → cause → tractors
According to AAA, the price of a gallon of diesel in the state is now $6.31 compared to $3.59 a year ago.
uncertain
price → accord → 3.59
There’s also the tariffs, which have put a massive strain on farmers.
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which → ’ → farmers
China has since pledged to purchase American-made soybeans, but it maintains a 10 percent tariff on American goods, including agricultural products.
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it → pledge → products
Another factor working in Democrats’ favor is the fact that Iowa’s unpopular Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds will not seek re-election.
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Reynolds → work → election
Most polls show the state’s Democratic Auditor Rob Sand beating Republican doctor Zach Lahn in the governor’s race.
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Sand → show → race
Of course, Democrats voters have every reason to not take these numbers at face value.
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voters → have → value
Most famously, in 2024, Ann Selzer, the most respected pollster in Iowa, showed Kamala Harris with a three-point lead in the state against Trump in the final days before the election, only for him to mollywhop Harris by double digits.
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him → show → digits
In addition, Hinson, while plenty conservative, has sought to portray herself as bipartisan and not a right-wing fire-breather on the issues.
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Hinson → seek → issues
Republicans are also trying to recylce the issue of transgender athletes playing in women’s sports, even though Turek told NBC News and Sand told Politico that they oppose it.
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they → try → it
Lindsay James, who is running in Hinson’s old seat, for her part is running an ad saying “Parents know what's best for our kids.
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what → run → kids
Washington needs to stay out of it.”
But it’s not clear that hitting Democrats on transgender athletes will have the same salience in 2026 that it did in 2024, when Republicans messaged that Democrats cared more about cultural issues than they did the cost of living.
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they → need → living
Now, it’s the GOP that looks more focused on transgender people than the price of diesel and food.
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that → ’ → diesel
Iowa’s conservative lean might still save Hinson and some Republicans in the state.
uncertain
lean → save → state
But if the top-ticket Republicans lose, they will have few people other than Trump to blame for losing a state that he had secured in their column for the past decade.
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he → lose → decade
The Aporia
