In short:
High cocoa prices and increased manufacturing costs mean chocolate prices remain stubbornly high.
asserted
prices → increase → ?
The high cost of cocoa has been linked to a combination of weather events and a virus affecting some cocoa crops, creating global supply issues.
What's next?
asserted
What → link → issues
Chocolate prices are not expected to come down any time soon, and one smaller producer says the cost may lead to consumers eating less but higher quality chocolate.
uncertain
consumers → expect → chocolate
But over the past few years, as grocery prices have continued to rise, those feeding a chocolate habit have been paying more at the check-out.
asserted
those → continue → out
Chocolate prices have climbed, driven by an escalating cocoa price.
asserted
prices → climb → price
Associate Professor of supply chain management at Edith Cowan University, Flavio Macau, has looked at the rising cost of a 180-gram block of Cadbury Dairy Milk Chocolate.
asserted
Professor → look → Chocolate
In May 2024, a block cost $6 at both major supermarkets, Woolworths and Coles.
uncertain
block → cost → supermarkets
While the blocks go on special from time to time, the price of a block has remained at $8 at the major supermarkets this year.
"
asserted
price → go → supermarkets
I don't think we're going to see any time soon chocolate pricing going back to what it was a couple of years ago," Rabobank senior analyst Michael Harvey said.
asserted
Harvey → think → years
The cost of cocoa reached an all-time high of $US 12,000 a tonne in 2024.
asserted
cost → reach → 2024
It peaked again in 2025 before dropping down to around $US 2,600 a tonne in February this year.
asserted
It → peak → February
The price per tonne has been going up again in recent months.
asserted
price → go → months
"It's been a very volatile ride," Mr Harvey said.
asserted
Harvey → say → ?
The high cost of cocoa has been linked to a combination of weather events and a virus affecting some cocoa crops, creating global supply issues.
As a key ingredient, the high price of cocoa has led to higher chocolate prices.
asserted
price → link → prices
A spokesperson for Cadbury's parent company, Mondelez, said cocoa prices were still well above pre-crisis levels, and the price of other ingredients and manufacturing had also increased.
asserted
price → say → ingredients
"We work hard to absorb these cost increases where possible while ensuring that we can continue to provide the high-quality, great-tasting chocolate," the spokesperson said.
asserted
spokesperson → work → chocolate
The company spokesperson said it was focused on strengthening the sustainability and resilience of cocoa, "including investing in climate-smart farming, improving productivity and expanding the geographic diversity of supply".
asserted
it → say → supply
High prices might change chocolate tastes
uncertain
prices → change → tastes
Helen Curtis and her husband Maurice make chocolate from scratch at their business in historic Richmond in Tasmania's south.
asserted
Curtis → make → south
The business buys its cacao beans from eight different countries including Peru, Papua New Guinea and Australia.
asserted
business → buy → Peru
"Pre-COVID, cacao bean prices were about $8 a kilo whereas current prices are around $20 a kilo," Ms Curtis said.
asserted
Curtis → say → ?
She said she had always paid more for beans.
asserted
she → say → beans
"We have relationships with farmers … you're paying sustainable prices to help support those families."
But the rising cost of beans has meant she has had to put her prices up.
asserted
she → have → prices
She said that had affected sales "a little bit".
asserted
that → say → sales
Ms Curtis said higher prices might lead to consumers eating less chocolate but buying better quality, rather than consuming larger amounts of cheaper chocolate with high sugar content.
uncertain
consumers → say → content
"When I was little … rather than eating in bulk quantity, we had little bits; we savoured it," she said.
asserted
she → eat → it
"For us, something chocolate is something to enjoy, something to make life better.
asserted
life → enjoy → us
"
So when will the price of chocolate come down?
asserted
price → come → chocolate
There is a risk cocoa prices could rise again.
uncertain
prices → be → ?
The declaration of an active El Niño could play havoc with global weather conditions.
Australian Food and Grocery Council chief executive Colm Maguire said "even if cocoa eases further, the overall basket of costs hitting all manufacturers — like energy, packaging and transport — are still high".
"That's exactly why we need to keep working on Australia's competitiveness, making it more affordable to make products Australians love is a win for manufacturers and chocolate lovers," he said.
uncertain
he → play → lovers
Protein shakes could be next
Whey, a by-product of cheesemaking, has also been increasing in price.
uncertain
Whey → increase → price
It is high in protein and has become popular as a supplement to build muscle.
asserted
It → become → muscle
Whey can be found in shakes, as well as a range of other foods like milk, cheese, yoghurt and products promoted as being high in protein.
asserted
Whey → find → protein
The booming demand for the product has driven the price hike.
asserted
demand → drive → hike
Mr Harvey said it was not easy to ramp up whey production.
asserted
it → say → production
"You have to build the plant.
asserted
You → have → plant
You've also got to deal with the cheese as well,"he said.
asserted
You → get → cheese
The Aporia