Australian motorists should not expect an immediate drop in fuel prices despite Brent crude sliding to the lowest level in weeks.
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crude → expect → weeks
The global benchmark for oil prices has fallen by more than $2, its lowest since September 8.
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benchmark → fall → September
That comes as Australian petrol and diesel prices surge amid the Iran war.
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prices → come → war
In recent weeks the RACQ reported some Queensland service stations were charging more than $2.40 per litre for unleaded and $2.90 for diesel.
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stations → report → diesel
But other experts believe change may be on the horizon.
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change → believe → horizon
Let's break down what's happening.
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what → let → ?
International conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have sharply decreased fuel exports from global producers such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
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conflicts → decrease → Russia
On Monday the International Energy Agency warned many refineries were "already stretched to capacity".
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refineries → warn → capacity
"This leaves few available options to prevent a further tightening of supplies and higher prices in the coming months," it said.
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it → leave → months
Australia receives most of its petrol from imports, leaving it "exposed to global disruptions", according to University of Sunshine Coast finance professor Sajid Anwar.
"
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Australia → receive → Anwar
Although Australia draws on multiple suppliers, including Singapore, South Korea and Japan, these sources sit within the same Asia-Pacific supply chain, meaning major regional disruptions could still affect supply," he said.
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he → draw → supply
The Albanese government's cut to the fuel excise ended on August 3.
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cut → end → August
"We were very clear that that was a temporary measure," Energy Minister Chris Bowen told 7.30 last week.
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Bowen → tell → 7.30
Loading...What are the prices right now?
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prices → load → ?
NRMA spokesman Peter Khoury said prices had been rising but it had slowed in the past week or so.
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it → say → week
He points to Gasoil, our diesel benchmark, which fell from $200 a week ago to $174.
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which → point → 174
But Mr Khoury said further global drops could take up to 10 days to flow into the retail market.
"We're now starting to see a stability within those prices, but we haven't gone back nearly as far as we'd like," he said.
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he → say → prices
Does the Brent crude drop mean cheaper fuel?
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drop → mean → fuel
The drop came as Saudi Arabia restarted operations at its East-West Pipeline, which was damaged in Iranian-backed Houthi attacks more than a week ago.
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which → come → attacks
But experts have warned Australian consumers against following these international markets too closely or "assuming the volatility is over".
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volatility → warn → markets
Swinburne University of Technology transport professor Hussein Dia said oil prices were "still extremely sensitive to developments in the Middle East".
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prices → say → East
"For motorists, the key thing to watch is not whether Brent falls on one particular day, but whether lower crude and refined-fuel prices are sustained over the next week or two," he said.
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he → watch → week
"A useful way of thinking about it is that the global oil market may be turning the tap down on prices, but there is still fuel already moving through the Australian supply chain that was purchased when international prices were considerably higher."
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prices → think → chain
Dr Dia says Australians should look at the Singapore Mogas 95 benchmark for more accurate fuel indications.
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Australians → say → indications
Dr Anwar agreed with that assessment.
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Anwar → agree → assessment
"The recent decline in Brent is encouraging from a fuel-price perspective, but it is too early to conclude that it will translate into a sustained decline at the bowser," he said.
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he → conclude → bowser
"If international crude and Singapore refined-petrol prices remain lower, some downward pressure should emerge over the next one to two weeks.
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pressure → remain → weeks
"However, given the continuing geopolitical risks, particularly around Hormuz and Saudi Arabia's alternative export routes, petrol prices are likely to fluctuate considerably as markets reassess the probability of either de-escalation or further disruption."
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markets → give → escalation
RACQ principal economic and affordability specialist Ian Jeffreys agreed lower prices would depend on whether those prices were sustained.
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prices → agree → ?
"While we do not expect an immediate drop in prices, there is potential for fuel prices to decrease by up to 5 cents per litre across the state," he said.
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he → expect → state
According to the Australian Institute of Petroleum, the national average for unleaded petrol was 227.3 cents per litre on September 20.
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average → accord → September
Here's how it has tracked previously:
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it → track → ?
- September 13: 211.1 cents and 257.7 cents for diesel
- September 6: 205.5 cents and 252.9 cents for diesel
- August 30: 204.8 cents and 252.7 cents for diesel
- August 23: 201.6 cents and 248.3 cents for diesel
How do I find cheap fuel?
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I → find → fuel
Most experts advise consumers shop around for the cheapest deal.
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consumers → advise → deal
Mr Khoury said families embarking on school holiday trips could save more than $20 a tank, depending on where they filled up.
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they → say → 20
"In any town where you're heading on a rod trip … there will be a decent spread of prices," he said.
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he → head → prices
"It is important families are getting the cheapest fuel they can."
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they → get → fuel
Fuel price comparison apps can help you locate the cheapest prices in your area.
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you → help → area
The Aporia
