- Published
How have Premier League teams really started?
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teams → publish → ?
Given that they finished fifth and 17th respectively, it shows that the table shouldn't be taken too seriously this early on.
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table → give → ?
While any statistics should be taken with a pinch of salt - given such a small sample size of games and the fact that some teams have had more difficult starts than others - they do provide a more accurate picture of how the season could unfold.
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season → take → picture
Expected goals (xG) tells us how much teams have dominated games, based on the number and quality of shots they've taken and faced.
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they → expect → shots
Basically, how well they've performed in general before finishing, shot-stopping and plain old luck come into play.
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finishing → perform → play
And Premier League history shows us that the more a team dominates games, the more points they win in the long run.
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they → show → run
It's best to exclude penalties as refereeing decisions and defensive clumsiness give a false impression of how good teams actually are at attacking and defending, especially at this early stage.
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teams → exclude → stage
Champions Arsenal may have suffered their biggest defeat in three years last weekend at Brighton but they've still been the best team overall based on xG difference.
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they → suffer → difference
Leaders Manchester City are not too far behind them in terms of how much they've dominated their games, while there's nothing fortunate about unbeaten Brentford's impressive start to the season.
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they → dominate → season
Manchester United constantly seem to flip between feast and famine, when often they've simply been fine.
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they → seem → feast
Despite their underwhelming start, only three teams have a higher xG difference so far.
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teams → have → difference
The likes of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have also been better than their position in the early table suggests.
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position → suggest → table
At the other end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have been the least impressive in terms of their overall performance, with the latter perhaps the most surprising given their position in the top half.
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latter → give → half
It's still early days, so there's no need to panic just yet, but it shows that those teams have a lot of room to improve - something Villa did to great effect after a slow start last season by finishing fourth.
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Villa → be → start
Worryingly for the established sides though, the promoted teams seem like they won't be going down without a fight, with both Hull and Ipswich making genuinely solid starts to the campaign.
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Hull → establish → campaign
Pecked by the Seagulls
Looking at teams' numbers going forward, Brighton have the best attack so far based on the number and quality of chances they've had, followed by Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United.
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they → peck → City
Although the Gunners are more admired for their defensive prowess, it's still surprising that eight teams have a higher xG than champions Arsenal, while Liverpool and Chelsea also rank in mid-table.
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Liverpool → admire → table
Brighton not only have the highest xG but have also been one of the most ruthless sides in front of goal, scoring 15 non-penalty goals from their 10.7 xG.
The only team to be more clinical than the Seagulls is their avian cousins the Magpies, who actually have the lowest xG in the league so far.
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who → have → league
Newcastle have scored twice as many goals as a team historically would given the chances they've had - 9 goals from 4.5 xG - but head coach Matthias Jaissle will no doubt want his team to create more and not have to rely on such sharp finishing as the season goes on.
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season → score → finishing
In contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have all scored three goals fewer than they really should have given the opportunities they've had in their first five games.
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they → score → games
It'll be interesting to see whether those teams genuinely have a problem with their finishing or if their luck in front of goal simply begins to change in the games to come.
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luck → see → games
As mentioned earlier, champions Arsenal are renowned for their defence and they still have by far the best backline in the league - even taking their heavy defeat by Brighton into account.
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they → mention → account
While Forest head coach Oliver Glasner has work to do to get his side scoring goals, he's already instilled a solid foundation to build from at the back, as has Andoni Iraola at Liverpool.
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Iraola → have → Liverpool
There's a lot of construction work needed in the capital as Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have all been far too open at the back so far this season, although Xabi Alonso's side are not quite as terrible as the 12 goals they've conceded suggests.
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they → be → back
Brighton's brilliance going forward has come at the cost of them not being particularly solid in defence, with Fabian Hurzeler's team perhaps a little fortunate not to have conceded more often.
Everton and Leeds have also conceded three goals fewer than expected given the chances they've faced, although both sides have been among the strongest defensively overall.
Just five games into the new campaign, it's too early to be making any concrete claims about how sides will perform but their underlying numbers have given us a glimpse of what might be in store this season.
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what → go → store
The Aporia
