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Donald Trump is picking a fight on potash. Here's how Canada should respond (spoiler: not like Andrew Scheer)

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Cite

Maher, S. (2026, September 23). Donald Trump is picking a fight on potash. Here's how Canada should respond (spoiler: not like Andrew Scheer). Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/trump-is-picking-a-fight-on-potash-here-s-how-canada-should-respond-spoiler-not-like-andrew-scheer/article_86d5661c-a748-4ef3-8313-eba7e3d7ef3c.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Toronto Star · collected 2026-09-23 · by Stephen Maher

Quick Summary

The article discusses Donald Trump's recent threats against Canada’s potash industry and suggests that Andrew Scheer's response was inappropriate. It notes that Trump is seeking to import cheaper potash from Belarus despite Belarus' limited production capacity and export difficulties. The author dismisses Trump's claims as baseless, emphasizing that the Canadian potash sector is crucial for U.S. agriculture due to its scale of production—25 million tonnes with $9 billion in revenue last year—and questioning Scheer’s criticism of Canada's carbon tax as irrelevant.
Written by AI on 2026-09-23, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Donald Trump is threatening Canada over potash, a key ingredient in fertilizers, which has been a stable industry since the 1940s. Last year, Saskatchewan produced 25 million tonnes of potash and earned $9 billion from selling it to American farmers. Despite this long-standing trade relationship, Trump imposed tariffs aimed at harming Canadian industries but avoided hitting oil or potash due to their importance for U.S. agriculture and voters. Critics argue that Trump's tactics are misguided and fear he is ignoring economic realities in favor of political posturing ahead of the midterms. The author suggests skepticism towards supporters of both Trump and Pierre Poilievre given recent approval ratings around 32 percent.

Written for “Canadian Potash Dispute” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Canadian Potash Dispute
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 6% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
CBC News
⚖️ Centre further right than this Hedges 1 of 3 claims Outlet record 74/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Trump's potash policy; Article A focuses on Canada's response to Trump's statements and their implications, while Article B analyzes the strategic vulnerability in American agriculture due to reliance on Canadian potash.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
31
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
6%
2 of 31 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans strongly left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-23 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11255 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Stephen Maher
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 I would like to play poker for money against the people who still believe what Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre say, because I doubt they can tell a spade from a diamond, a deuce from a Queen.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

American Belarus Canada Saskatchewan midwesterners

Subjects

Canada GPE · 7× Trump PERSON · 5× Poilievre PERSON · 4× American NORP · 3× Carney PERSON · 3× Saskatchewan GPE · 3× Belarus GPE · 2× Scheer PERSON · 2× the European Union GPE · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1×

Narrative

You can imagine timid aides reminding him — when he can be distracted from designing monuments to himself — that midwesterners are worried about fertilizer prices, since much of the feedstock for fertilizer plants around the world must travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which he has rendered inoperative.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-23
🔮 I would like to play poker for money against the people who still believe what Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre say, because I doubt they can tell a spade from a diamond, a deuce from a Queen.

Claims (31 extracted, 2 hedged)

I would like to play poker for money against the people who still believe what Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre say, because I doubt they can tell a spade from a diamond, a deuce from a Queen. asserted
they → like → Queen
As support for both Trump and Poilievre has diminished — they both have approval ratings of 32 per cent — I am starting to think that their remaining supporters are — how to put it? — not as intellectually inclined as other voters. Let us consider potash, briefly. asserted
us → diminish → potash
Last year the good people of Saskatchewan dug up 25 million tonnes of potassium-rich mineral salts, and made $9 billion selling it to American farmers, who use it as fertilizer. asserted
who → dig → fertilizer
This has been a productive and boring enterprise since the 1940s, and nobody outside the towns where it is produced have had much cause to pay it any mind — until Trump decided that he should bully Canada into submission and imposed tariffs designed to destroy our industrial base. asserted
he → produce → base
Trump did not impose tariffs on oil or potash, because he can’t afford to increase diesel, gasoline or fertilizer prices. asserted
he → impose → prices
He is likely dimly aware that potash is necessary for the farmers who foolishly voted for him and whom he hopes will vote for him again. asserted
he → vote → him
You can imagine timid aides reminding him — when he can be distracted from designing monuments to himself — that midwesterners are worried about fertilizer prices, since much of the feedstock for fertilizer plants around the world must travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which he has rendered inoperative. asserted
he → imagine → Hormuz
It surely bothers him that Americans have to keep buying the stuff from Canada, so on Monday, he announced that he is working on a “massive Deal” to import potash from Belarus. asserted
he → bother → Belarus
“The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.” asserted
we → pay → Farmers
I’m sure he would like that to be true, but it is not. asserted
it → ’m → ?
Belarus, a client state of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, produces much less potash than Canada, and can’t easily export it, since the European Union won’t allow it to pass through Baltic ports, and anyway, dictator Alexander Lukashenko says he has no potash to spare. asserted
he → produce → potash
This is one more thing that Trump is promising to hang on the crucial dummy vote ahead of the midterms. asserted
Trump → promise → midterms
He has previously promised them that if he wins in November, he will give every American $5,000, and that the price of diesel will fall after he defeats the Iranians, just after the election. asserted
he → promise → election
The proper response from Canada to this nonsense, of course, is to ignore his yapping as you would ignore the distant yowls of a deranged dog, or, if you are so inclined, mock him and his gullible supporters. asserted
you → ignore → him
That, however, was not the reaction of Andrew Scheer, Conservative House Leader, who went to the microphones in Ottawa on Monday to castigate the prime minister for the threat to the potash industry. asserted
who → go → industry
“As a member of Parliament from Saskatchewan … we’re very concerned,” he said. asserted
he → ’re → Saskatchewan
“It speaks to what Canada can control. asserted
Canada → speak → what
Mark Carney can today lift the industrial carbon tax, which adds costs to Saskatchewan potash producers.” asserted
which → lift → producers
Scheer was cleverly turning up the pressure on Carney to reduce the industrial carbon tax, except that Carney can’t, since that tax is zero. asserted
tax → turn → tax
You may recall that during Scheer’s unsuccessful campaign for prime minister, he was revealed to possess American citizenship, which he hadn’t previously disclosed, and which he promised to renounce until he lost and changed his mind. uncertain
he → recall → mind
I think Poilievre is foolish to send him out to respond on this kind of issue, since he obviously either hasn’t done his homework, or is carrying water for Trump. asserted
he → think → Trump
After all, for all we know, he voted for him in the recent election, as his citizenship allows him to do. asserted
him → know → election
Poilievre, himself, has never been a stickler for the facts, and as Carney’s government has moved to the right, doing many of the things that Poilievre advocates, he is having to stretch the truth to find ways to maintain the ferocity of his critiques. asserted
he → move → critiques
After the European Union invited Canada to become an associate member, for example, Poilievre thundered that “Conservatives say no EU taxes, no EU laws, and no EU open-border rules on immigration in Canada,” none of which are being proposed. asserted
none → invite → which
He might just as well have warned us that he would fight European efforts to make us all speak Basque. uncertain
us → warn → Basque
Carney is acting more like a Progressive Conservative every day, and Tories — including Stephen Harper — are noticing. asserted
Tories → act → Harper
That means that Poilievre is left with the cognitively impaired, the anti-vaxxers, the social conservatives and permanently outraged. asserted
Poilievre → mean → impaired
He is like a man straddling a barbed wire fence, since the messages to his supporters alienate the much larger group of voters who don’t blame Carney’s non-existent industrial carbon tax for Trump’s threats to hard-working Saskatchewan potash miners. asserted
who → straddle → miners
The dishonesty is dispiriting, not because the Conservatives pose a threat to replace the governing Liberals, but because they don’t. asserted
they → pose → Liberals
Our democracy works best when we have an opposition that looks like a government in waiting. asserted
that → work → waiting
The Conservatives look like dummies, and they should smarten up, for the sake of the country and their own personal dignity. asserted
they → look → country
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