Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to hold talks with United States President Donald Trump at the White House during his state visit – the first by a Chinese leader in more than a decade – as the world’s two largest economies are locked in an ongoing tussle over trade and artificial intelligence.
asserted
economies → schedule → trade
Trump is expected to welcome Xi on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews outside the US capital, Washington, DC, in a rare gesture for a high-stakes three-day visit by the Chinese leader.
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Trump → expect → leader
He ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods after returning to power in 2025, and has since imposed curbs on the sale of AI chips to Beijing as the two nations compete for supremacy in the AI race.
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nations → ramp → race
The future of their fragile trade truce will be high on the agenda when the two leaders meet on Thursday.
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leaders → meet → Thursday
US trade with China fell sharply in 2025, with trade declining nearly 30 percent compared with the year before.
But
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trade → fall → year
China’s trade with other countries has seen a sharp rise, with Beijing registering a $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year.
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Beijing → see → surplus
So, what will be on the agenda of the talks, and who is really winning the US-China trade war?
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who → win → war
Where does the US-China trade war stand?
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war → stand → ?
A Congressional Research Service report noted that as of July 2026, Chinese goods in the US faced a tariff rate of 36.5 percent, while US goods entering China were taxed at 31 percent.
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goods → note → percent
The rate varies sharply by product.
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rate → vary → product
For example, Chinese copper and its products faced an effective rate of 73.6 percent in June 2026, while aluminium and its products faced 65.2 percent, iron and steel items about 50 to 58 percent and vehicles and auto parts 44.4 percent.
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items → face → percent
These figures show the variety of tariff layers applicable to specific products.
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figures → show → products
China, meanwhile, maintains a 10 percent additional tariff on US imports on top of its normal tariffs and product-specific duties.
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China → maintain → tariffs
For example, US crude oil faces 20 percent, LNG 25 percent, soya beans 13 percent, and US beef can face up to 77 percent.
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beef → face → percent
Soon after resuming office in January 2025, Trump imposed a 10 percent duty on Chinese goods over fentanyl and immigration concerns, leading to the ongoing trade war.
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Trump → resume → war
Beijing responded with levies on US coal, LNG, crude oil, and autos, as well as additional curbs on exports of five metals key to defence and clean energy.
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Beijing → respond → defence
By April 2025, the trade war escalated, with Chinese goods attracting 145 percent tariffs while Beijing imposed a 125 percent levy on US imports, in addition to curbs on rare-earth exports.
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Beijing → escalate → exports
The rivals struck a tariff truce after talks in South Korea, which is due to expire on November 10.
However, the truce has not prevented Washington and Beijing from engaging in trade curbs.
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truce → strike → curbs
Last month, the US banned imports of humanoid robots produced in China, sanctioned Chinese shipping operators over alleged handling of Iranian fuel, and imposed restrictions on other sectors, including a threat to sanction Chinese AI firms.
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US → ban → firms
Beijing said it was left with “no choice but to take necessary countermeasures”, unveiling a package that sanctioned US firms and curbed exports of drones and their tech to the US.
Is the trade war limited to tariffs?
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war → say → tariffs
The trade conflict also includes sanctions, entity lists, investment restrictions, and research restrictions, alongside turning supply chains into instruments of economic pressure.
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conflict → include → pressure
China’s leverage is concentrated in critical minerals, and it has restricted exports of rare earths – crucial for semiconductor manufacturing and AI.
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it → concentrate → manufacturing
Beijing controls almost 90 percent of global processing and refining capacity, and that dominance makes these restrictions particularly consequential for electronics, electric vehicles and defence equipment.
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restrictions → control → electronics
The US restricts China’s access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking equipment, although the policy has become more selective in recent months.
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policy → restrict → months
Earlier this month, the US started a trial against Huawei, accusing the Chinese tech giant of stealing technology.
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US → start → technology
How has it affected US-China trade?
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it → affect → trade
According to the latest US Census Bureau data, US-China bilateral trade has fallen by 29 percent – from $584bn in 2024 to $415bn in 2025.
uncertain
trade → accord → 2025
The contraction has continued into this year: trade between the two countries reached $222bn in January-July, down 14.5 percent from the same period in 2025 and 31 percent from January-July 2024.
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trade → continue → July
The decline is driven mainly by lower US imports from China.
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decline → drive → China
US imports fell from $194bn in January-July 2025 to $156bn in the same period in 2026, which is 34.6 percent less than the corresponding period in 2024.
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which → fall → 2024
China’s imports of US products remained virtually unchanged year-on-year at $65bn in the first seven months this year, but fell about 20 percent compared with 2024.
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imports → remain → 2024
The US goods trade deficit with China fell from $297bn in 2024 to $203bn in 2025.
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deficit → fall → 2025
Between January and July 2026, it stood at $91bn, but the significant decline in the deficit is driven by the US importing fewer Chinese goods rather than selling them more.
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US → stand → more
Has the trade war hurt China?
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war → hurt → China
While US-China bilateral trade took a hit, Chinese exports have increasingly been redirected towards other markets as Beijing took advantage of Trump’s tariff war against countries around the world.
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Beijing → take → world
China’s total goods exports rose 6.1 percent in 2025, reaching about $3.77 trillion, according to its National Bureau of Statistics.
uncertain
exports → rise → Statistics
Chinese exports to ASEAN countries rose 14 percent in 2025, to about $660bn, making it Beijing’s largest export market.
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it → rise → 660bn
Exports to the European Union countries rose 9 percent, to about $560bn.
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Exports → rise → 560bn
In the first half of this year, Chinese exports rose 13.4 percent, their 11th consecutive quarter of growth, according to government statistics.
uncertain
exports → rise → statistics
For instance, China-ASEAN trade reached $744bn in the first seven months, up 24.7 percent from a year earlier.
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trade → reach → months
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
