President Donald Trump should strike a killing blow at the rulers of Iran and their lackeys in October if not earlier.
asserted
Trump → strike → October
Press reports about the president’s alleged alteration between hawk and dove seem designed to confuse our enemy and that is working.
asserted
that → allege → enemy
There is hardly a person on the planet who would presume to guess what Trump will do.
asserted
Trump → be → what
The rump regime atop the Islamic Republic of Iran is best understood as a military junta with a through line of religious zealotry connecting its members.
asserted
regime → understand → members
“Fanatics with guns and a dwindling supply of ballistic missiles and weaponized drones” is the best way to think of them.
asserted
Fanatics → dwindle → them
They are not scholars and political scientists with a comprehensive grasp of American and Israeli politics, though it seems as though they think themselves as masters of those very complicated universes.
asserted
they → seem → universes
The members of the Iranian junta are also not the first, second, or third string of leaders that the country began 2026 with.
asserted
country → begin → that
Whether the “best of the rest” rose up to claim command we cannot know, but that Ahmad Vahidi seems to be first among equals does seem like a good bet.
uncertain
seems → rise → bet
Vahidi, 68, was just off the bench when the all-out battle began this past February, and while he had previously served in numerous senior capacities, he had failed to stay in the quest for leadership in a regime run by an octogenarian.
asserted
he → begin → octogenarian
The ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, was 86 when he was killed in the opening salvo of the battle, and he had not kept Vahidi in the inner circle.
asserted
he → kill → circle
Another now-important figure to the junta is 72-year-old Mohsen Rezaei, who was also on the beach with Vahidi when the battle began in 2025 with the “12-day war.”
asserted
battle → begin → war
Rezaei is back now as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, a man who occasionally puts out statements on Iranian policy.
asserted
who → put → policy
Like Vahidi, Rezaei was called off the sidelines because of the devastation visited on Iran’s senior leadership on Feb. 28 of this year.
asserted
Rezaei → call → year
Keep in mind that these two and their junta colleagues had been passed over by the now dead supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
asserted
two → keep → leader
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was established by the leader of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, on May 5 of that year, barely three months after the Shah of Iran went into exile.
uncertain
Shah → establish → exile
It’s purpose was simple: To protect the new Islamic Revolution from a counterrevolution by consolidating the numerous revolutionary militias and armed groups in the Iran of 47 years with the dual purpose of establishing armed oversight over the country’s conventional military, the Artesh, and to defend the ideological character of the new regime.
A half-century later the Guard numbers between 200,000 and 250,000 and it is supplemented by a force of thugs, the Basij, which are the regime’s “brown shirts,” less than 100,000 of whom are paid and another half million of whom are muscle for the streets.
asserted
million → protect → streets
These are the forces that keep 92 million Iranians under their thumbs.
asserted
that → keep → thumbs
If the junta can keep its bodyguards and the bodyguards of its bodyguards paid and receiving the benefits of what is essentially “party membership,” the regime can endure a while.
asserted
regime → keep → while
The U.S.’s blockade and vast (and for the first time wholly comprehensive) economic sanctions on the regime are grinding the Iranian economy to a halt.
asserted
blockade → grind → halt
But there are 91 million Iranians the junta can loot and impoverish — and if necessary kill — in order to hold on to power.
asserted
junta → be → power
What the regime demonstrated in January when it slaughtered between 30,000 and 50,000 of its own people is that its ruthlessness cannot be underestimated.
asserted
ruthlessness → demonstrate → people
Once a regime has murdered on that scale it knows, collectively and individually, that it cannot go quietly into the night.
asserted
it → murder → night
The families of its victims, extending from 1979 through the January massacre and the hardships of the six-month battle with the United States, Israel, and all of the Gulf countries, has left the regime with no path of retreat that does not involve exile or facing a vengeance-seeking population.
asserted
that → extend → population
The fates of deposed dictators Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania, and a score of others must be on their minds.
asserted
fates → depose → minds
Brutal killers don’t live peacefully in retirement.
asserted
killers → live → retirement
Such a group will seize on any hope of staying in power (or bolting for abroad).
asserted
group → seize → power
This junta’s collective hope appears to be that if it can make it through the Israeli and American elections, it can survive.
asserted
it → appear → elections
This has some analysts in the West confused about what is likely to happen before Israel’s election on Oct. 27 and America’s on Nov. 3.
asserted
what → have → Nov.
Some expect Iran or its proxies that are left alive in Yemen and Lebanon to try and launch attacks on its enemies in the run-up to the voting in the two democracies.
asserted
that → expect → democracies
For whatever reason, those analysts think these dictators think that driving the cost of oil up around the world will help them.
asserted
driving → think → them
In fact, any attack on American forces or Israel would bring swift and punishing counterstrikes.
asserted
attack → bring → counterstrikes
Israel’s government has made it clear that if struck again from Iran, it will not continue the restraint that left Iran’s oil production capacity intact over the two rounds of Israeli bombing in Iran, the first from June 13 through June 24, 2025, and the second which began on Feb. 28 of this year and which ran through April 7.
asserted
which → make → April
Over the course of the two major air campaigns, Iran suffered devastation of its nuclear weapons program, its ballistic missile and general defense forces, including the complete loss of its navy and grounding of its air force, as well as the “blinding” of its ability to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Iran → suffer → Hormuz
This last blow has allowed America to escort hundreds of millions of barrels of oil as well as massive quantities of natural gas out of the strait to the world’s energy markets.
asserted
America → allow → markets
While the cost of oil has briefly topped $100 a barrel on a few occasions since the start of the February-April combat operations, it is again dropping as buyers again assess that Iran cannot in fact close the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
Iran → top → Hormuz
The junta appears to be hoping that a change in the distribution of power in the governments of both Israel and the U.S. would be good for the regime.
asserted
change → appear → regime
They are aging ideologues trying to discern some way forward for themselves and their “revolutionary” colleagues.
asserted
They → age → themselves
So the junta is gambling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu being ousted and on Americans handing control to the Democrats in the House and Senate.
asserted
Americans → gamble → House
Some brilliant analyst may have forgotten to brief the bosses that any leader in Israel is going to pulverize Iran’s energy sector the next time a missile is fired from Iran at Israel.
uncertain
missile → forget → Israel
Those same brains have failed to brief the “leadership” that American presidents in their last two years in office become much more focused on the powers inherit in the presidency and much less focused on “working with Congress.”
asserted
presidents → fail → Congress
…and 34 more, not listed.
The Aporia
