Finally, in the dead of night, the threat above has passed.
asserted
threat → pass → night
The rain has eased and the Ukrainian drones are ready, prepared by a ground crew shrouded in hard-to-detect green and red lights.
asserted
drones → ease → lights
A small succession of Ukrainian Fire Point FP-2 craft, miniature monoplanes with a 6-metre wingspan and more than 100kg of explosive, line up for an attack mission into occupied Luhansk, over 200 miles away.
asserted
succession → line → Luhansk
The jet sound reverberates, almost painfully.
asserted
sound → reverberate → ?
A burst of fire lurches into the distance, the last of which signifies it is time for Ukraine’s 413 Raid drone regiment to pack and go.
asserted
regiment → lurch → which
It is a scene that is now played out nightly by dozens of Ukrainian crews, reflecting a fast-changing conflict that began with tanks, then artillery, but is now pivoting beyond a first generation of drones.
asserted
that → play → drones
Death and destruction are delivered by new weapons in growing volumes, hundreds of miles beyond the frontline, and at targets that are military, industrial and economic but that affect civilians too.
asserted
that → deliver → civilians
But just as Ukraine has developed its drone and missile capability to almost match Russia’s – after its cities were subject at times to hundreds of drone strikes a day – Moscow has transformed its drone arsenal with a jet-powered revolution.
asserted
Moscow → develop → revolution
The balance of power remains uncertain.
asserted
balance → remain → power
Raid is a specialist drone unit, created two years ago, and has been operating Ukrainian-designed and -built FP-2 attack drones since last autumn, according to Skipper, a former corporate IT worker with a master’s in computer science who is now one of its commanders.
uncertain
who → create → commanders
If, he says, there was only one crew that could run two missions a week when they started, today he says “we can do 10 times more, or even more”.
uncertain
we → say → more
Speaking in a car as the rain pelts down, Skipper cautions there is “a flipside” when asked if long-distance wars are easier to fight because nobody has to be killed visibly.
asserted
nobody → speak → car
“They can do it as well,” he says – Raid’s crew are targets too.
asserted
crew → do → it
“Maybe you don’t see the enemy with your own eyes, but still it’s a very dangerous game,” he adds.
asserted
he → see → eyes
The FP-2 was only first publicly acknowledged by Ukraine last September.
asserted
FP-2 → acknowledge → Ukraine
It is designed to attack hardened targets at a mid-range, to disrupt Russian logistics to the frontline.
asserted
It → design → frontline
The success of Raid and others engaged in mid-strike bombing has helped grind the pace of the invaders’ advance to a near halt.
asserted
success → engage → halt
Russia gained a modest 90 square kilometres of Ukraine in August, compared with 505 sq km a year earlier, and western officials estimate it is losing 6,000 more soldiers a month than it can recruit.
asserted
it → gain → soldiers
In Ukraine’s sprawling military, the specialist drone units of the Unmanned System Forces, including Raid regiment, work and overlap with army units working closer to the frontline and special forces.
asserted
units → sprawl → frontline
A major attack, such as the attack that disabled the Moscow refinery about 300 miles from the border on 20 September, involves several working at once.
asserted
several → disable → September
A long-range attack could involve launching up to 300 drones, though the target is to be able to launch 1,000 a night, in what soldiers describe as an “orchestra”, where cheap drones identify an air corridor towards the final target.
uncertain
drones → involve → target
The long-range, $75,000 FP-1, sister to the FP-2, has been used to repeatedly attack warehouses, refineries and other military-economic sites at a depth of 1,800 miles inside Russia, causing the country’s crude oil production to fall by 7.7% in a year, according to figures from the International Energy Agency, and interest rates to remain at 14%.
uncertain
rates → use → %
“Both sides are getting better at translating deep strikes into economic effects,” says Sidharth Kaushal, of the Royal United Services Institute.
asserted
Kaushal → get → Institute
Mission planning is rarely shown, but a short-range drone unit operating in the eastern Donetsk front – Unit 17, Special Operations Centre – is happy to show their war work from their dacha.
asserted
unit → show → dacha
Znakhar, 33, a software coder before the full Russian invasion, is one of a squad of English-speaking men in their early 30s.
asserted
Znakhar → speak → 30s
During the day, he clicks on fresh, static targets – artillery, electronic jamming systems – that have been added to a common system from western satellites or Ukrainian reconnaissance drones, studying their pictures for extra information.
asserted
that → click → information
At night, the crew use a $25,000 Sych drone, which looks like a large model aeroplane.
asserted
which → use → aeroplane
If the rain holds off, they can fly two to six bombing runs, dozens of miles behind enemy lines.
asserted
they → hold → lines
Znakhar, whose call sign means healer or herbalist, draws up an initial flight path in seconds with a few clicks on a map, then adjusts the route to avoid population centres, high ground and known interceptor drone launch sites.
asserted
sign → mean → centres
What’s changed recently?
asserted
What → change → ?
“More drones,” he says.
asserted
he → say → drones
Colleagues such as Ananas, 30, head out at night, taking more precautions than they did when the unit started drone work two years ago, preparing launches underground where once they could work in a field.
uncertain
they → head → field
He studied architecture, then worked as a 3D artist in a video game studio.
asserted
He → study → studio
“I play a lot of video games,” he says, “so I’m good with a gamepad.
asserted
I → play → gamepad
It’s a big plus because now I’m a pilot.”
asserted
I → ’ → ?
It’s a narrowing of the gap between fiction and reality.
asserted
It → ’ → fiction
On the other side, Moscow always has ballistic and cruise missiles available, allowing it to bomb anywhere inside Ukraine since February 2022.
asserted
it → have → February
It imported delta-winged Shahed drones from Iran in the war’s first year to boost its long-range attack numbers, and developed a family of cheap battlefield drones plus its own version of the Shahed.
asserted
It → import → Shahed
But since May there has been a notable set of upgrades, allowing Russian forces to strike Ukraine more effectively with fast, jet-engined drones, allied with a new ruthlessness of targeting.
uncertain
forces → allow → targeting
“Russia never stops,” Serhii Beskrestnov, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s defence technology adviser, said during an interview in Kyiv punctuated by an air raid and explosions in the distance.
asserted
Beskrestnov → stop → distance
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
