A little over 18 months into the second Trump administration, the imposition of tariffs on India and the administration’s renewed engagement with Pakistan have been interpreted by many analysts as signs of a more turbulent bilateral relationship.
asserted
imposition → renew → relationship
However, judged by the administration’s “America First” objectives — which emphasize greater reciprocity, expanded market access, increased purchases of American goods, and closer alignment on economic security — President Donald Trump’s pressure-based approach has produced results.
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approach → judge → results
It has prompted Indian concessions and policy adjustments across trade, energy, defense, nuclear cooperation, and sanctions enforcement.
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It → prompt → trade
Thus, viewed from the administration’s perspective, Trump’s India policy is working.
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policy → view → perspective
Recently, India amended its foreign trade policy to prohibit imports produced using forced labor, aligning India’s trade rules more closely with U.S. supply chain standards.
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India → amend → standards
The move came just days after the Indian commerce ministry’s Brij Mohan attended the public hearing on the U.S. Section 301 forced labor investigation against 60 countries, including India.
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Mohan → come → India
The Indian government itself noted that sustained engagement with the U.S. trade representative helped secure placement in the lower tier, with around 45% of its exports to the United States remaining exempt.
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% → note → States
Indeed, following the policy change, the Trump administration placed India in the 10% Section 301 tariff tier, lower than the 12.5% tariff applied to countries that had not adopted comparable forced-labor import restrictions.
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that → follow → restrictions
The move was one in a series of shifts that started even before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in 2025.
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that → start → 2025
Before and during Prime Minister Modi’s Washington visit in February 2025, India reduced tariffs on U.S. bourbon whiskey from 150% to 100%.
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India → reduce → %
India was also one of the first countries to launch negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement on Feb. 13, with negotiations including some of the long-standing U.S. concerns such as medical devices, ICT import licensing, customs procedures, technical and non-tariff barriers on trade, digital trade, and agriculture market access.
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India → launch → access
Furthermore, when “Liberation Day” tariffs came into effect, unlike several other major U.S. partners, India did not retaliate nor pursue WTO litigation.
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India → come → litigation
Instead, it reportedly offered to eliminate or reduce tariffs on nearly 55% of U.S. imports, worth more than $23 billion, and accelerated trade negotiations.
uncertain
it → offer → negotiations
Most importantly for the U.S. administration, India reworked its energy policy around U.S. priorities.
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India → rework → priorities
In February 2026, as part of an interim trade deal, India made efforts to stop purchasing Russian oil.
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India → make → oil
In exchange, the U.S. cut its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, rescinding the punitive 25% duty tied to those Russian purchases.
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U.S. → cut → purchases
India also increased its purchases of U.S. LNG and liquefied petroleum gas, both of which have been a priority for Trump.
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both → increase → Trump
During the war with Iran, the U.S. emerged as the single largest liquefied petroleum gas exporter to India, accounting for almost 55% to 65% of all imports.
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U.S. → emerge → imports
Perhaps the biggest policy shift in New Delhi has opened doors to U.S.-India nuclear cooperation.
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shift → open → cooperation
In December 2025, India passed the SHANTI Bill, which replaced the existing framework and eased the supplier-liability obstacle, a long-standing impediment to U.S. companies investing in nuclear technology in India.
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which → pass → India
While the landmark U.S.-India nuclear deal was signed nearly two decades ago in 2008, the nuclear liability law made U.S. companies wary of investments.
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law → sign → investments
Defense cooperation tells a similar story.
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cooperation → tell → story
India has continued to deepen its reliance on U.S. systems, moving new deals this year despite aspersions that the defense relationship may suffer due to tariffs, including reports that India had paused deals to purchase Javelin and P-8I systems from the U.S.
In November 2025, weeks after renewing their 10-year defense framework, India bought Javelin anti-tank missiles and Excalibur precision-guided munitions from the U.S. under emergency procurement.
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India → continue → procurement
Notably, this was the first time India bought Javelin missiles, even though the platform had first been offered over 15 years earlier.
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platform → buy → missiles
A state-owned Indian firm also signed a roughly $1 billion deal for 113 GE F404 engines to power its domestically built Tejas fighters, and India’s Defence Acquisition Council cleared the proposed acquisition of six additional P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft.
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Council → own → aircraft
This shows a continuing trajectory of India buying U.S. weapon systems and platforms.
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India → show → systems
In a first for India, the Indian Coast Guard also enforced U.S. sanctions in its own waters.
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Guard → enforce → waters
On Feb. 6, 2026, it seized three U.S.-sanctioned tankers, the Stellar Ruby, Asphalt Star, and Al Jafzia, about 100 nautical miles off Mumbai.
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it → seize → Mumbai
It marked India’s first-ever operation against the shadow fleet that moves sanctioned Iranian oil through ship-to-ship transfers.
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that → mark → transfers
All three vessels had been previously sanctioned by the U.S. for their ties to Iran.
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vessels → sanction → Iran
India has since deployed dozens of ships and aircraft for round-the-clock surveillance of its maritime zone to prevent its waters from being used to disguise the origin of sanctioned cargoes.
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India → deploy → cargoes
The U.S.-India economic relationship has also become more balanced.
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relationship → become → ?
Recent data show that in the first five months of 2026, U.S. exports to India rose nearly 21% to $21.9 billion, while imports from India fell about 14% to $40.4 billion, narrowing the goods deficit from $29 billion to $18.5 billion.
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imports → show → billion
Furthermore, many key Indian conglomerates announced and undertook investments in the U.S., with the recent SelectUSA summit showing commitments of over $20.5 billion.
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summit → announce → billion
These measures help India, too, and are a part of a long-standing policy to diversify energy sources.
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measures → help → sources
Investments in the U.S. represent the growing maturity of Indian firms seeking a more global footprint.
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Investments → represent → footprint
India’s maritime overtures can be examined within the context of its own Indo-Pacific strategy.
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overtures → examine → strategy
The Trump administration’s “tough love” approach has notched some important wins for Washington, and a more balanced relationship serves both countries’ interests.
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relationship → notch → interests
As India’s global standing and prestige rise, it increasingly approaches and bargains with major powers as an equal, accepting greater responsibilities while expecting its interests to be respected.
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interests → rise → responsibilities
At the same time, it’s in America’s long-term interest to continue developing a strong partnership with a rising Asian giant seeking to balance China.
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it → ’ → China
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
