A series of new reports leads to only one logical conclusion: Ontario’s government finances are in a mess and getting worse.
asserted
finances → lead → mess
The provincial government’s current deficit projections are almost certainly optimistic and so are its numbers for future spending in key ministries, according to analyses by Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office (FAO).
uncertain
numbers → accord → Office
Ontario’s most recent budget projects a deficit of $13.8 billion in 2026-27, $6.1 billion the year after, then a slight surplus in 2028–29.
asserted
budget → project → 2028–29
It’s difficult to give those numbers much credibility.
asserted
It → ’ → credibility
Years ago, Peter Bethlenfalvy said there would be a surplus in 2024–25, but he has now pushed that target back three times.
asserted
he → say → target
The FAO has decidedly different view.
asserted
FAO → have → view
Based on its assessment of the economy, current government policies and announced commitments, the accountability office does not foresee a return to balanced budgets even by 2030–31, the last year of its analysis.
asserted
office → base → analysis
If so, those deficits will have a big effect on Ontario’s finances.
asserted
deficits → have → finances
By 2030–31, the accumulated deficit would increase by 25.3 per cent to $309.6 billion.
asserted
deficit → accumulate → billion
Net debt, which combines the deficits and borrowing for infrastructure, would jump by $169.1 billion, or 39.6 per cent.
asserted
which → combine → billion
Ontario’s past deficits were incurred despite healthy revenue growth.
asserted
deficits → incur → growth
When Premier Doug Ford took power in 2018, government revenue was $153.7 billion.
asserted
revenue → take → 2018
This year, it’s expected to be $232 billion.
asserted
it → expect → ?
And yet, his government still finds ways to spend more than it takes in.
asserted
it → find → more
The COVID-19 pandemic did push up government spending, but years later it has never come back down.
asserted
it → push → spending
The lack of fiscal discipline has real consequences.
asserted
lack → have → consequences
Debt interest will cost taxpayers $17.2 billion this year and the FAO projects it to rise to $24 billion by 2030–31.
asserted
it → cost → 2030–31
The provincial government has less to spend on important services because it’s paying so much in interest.
asserted
it → have → interest
That was readily apparent in reports the FAO released Wednesday.
asserted
FAO → release → reports
The accountability office looked at expected future spending on health care, education, colleges and universities, and social services.
asserted
office → look → care
In almost every item examined, it found that the future spending identified in the budget would fail to maintain service levels, much less improve them.
asserted
spending → examine → them
That’s particularly dismal news because per capita spending on many Ontario services is less than the national average.
asserted
spending → ’ → average
On health care, the government projects that spending will grow at an average annual rate of 3.2 per cent between now and 2028–29.
asserted
spending → project → 2028–29
The FAO estimates that 4.4 per cent annual increases would be necessary to maintain service levels.
asserted
increases → estimate → levels
The government’s lower planned spending level would mean fewer hospital beds and fewer nurses, although the number of physicians and personal support workers would go up.
asserted
number → plan → physicians
There are some gains, but Ontario was already far behind.
asserted
Ontario → be → ?
In 2023, Ontario had the second lowest provincial age-adjusted per capita spending on health.
asserted
Ontario → have → health
In the post-secondary sector, the current budget shows an actual decline in planned spending in 2027–28 and the following year, but that’s a bit misleading.
asserted
that → show → 2027–28
A drop in college student numbers, and with it per-student funding, means less overall spending, but a promised $6.4-billion increase for the sector is not fully included.
asserted
increase → mean → sector
Again, the new funding builds from a low base.
asserted
funding → build → base
In 2023–24, Ontario had the lowest per-student funding for both colleges and universities.
asserted
Ontario → have → colleges
In the education sector, the government plans spending increases of just 0.6 per cent a year for the next three years.
asserted
government → plan → years
That compares to 5.6 per cent a year over the last three years and a long-term average of 3.2 per cent.
asserted
That → compare → cent
The FAO estimates that 2.2 per cent would be required to maintain services at current levels.
asserted
cent → estimate → levels
In response to the FAO’s reports, the Ford government cited its “record spending” in a number of areas.
asserted
government → cite → areas
Fair enough, but increasing modestly from a low base isn’t much of an accomplishment.
asserted
increasing → increase → accomplishment
The appropriate questions are: How does spending compare to need?
asserted
spending → compare → need
And, do annual increases at least maintain service levels?
asserted
increases → maintain → levels
The government makes a better point when it says future spending projections don’t account for public sector salary increases.
asserted
projections → make → increases
Those will certainly push spending up, especially in education.
asserted
Those → push → education
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
