In short:
The new Adelaide University is not on track to meet its international student targets and is staring down tens of millions in lost revenue.
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University → meet → revenue
A business case three years ago for creating the university forecast that it could attract 6,000 additional international students by 2034 — before the federal government's crackdown on migration.
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it → create → migration
One of the university's deputy vice chancellors says federal policy changes have had "a significant impact on our attractiveness to international students".
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changes → say → students
Adelaide University is not on track to meet its international student targets and is staring down tens of millions in lost revenue, with the federal government's migration clampdown putting pressure on the business case for the newly merged institution.
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clampdown → meet → institution
The new university opened its doors to students in January after a roughly three-year process to bring together the University of Adelaide and University of South Australia, backed by a $464.5 million package from the state government.
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university → open → government
The business case for the merger projected that the new Adelaide University could attract 6,000 additional international students by 2034 compared to what the two universities had enrolled in 2023.
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universities → project → 2023
But statistics supplied by Adelaide University show its international student numbers are going backwards.
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numbers → supply → University
Adelaide University has enrolled 16,677 individual international students in 2026; the two predecessor institutions had enrolled 20,820 international students at the same point last year, the university said.
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university → enrol → point
The university is laying the blame squarely at the feet of the federal government's policy changes to bring down international student numbers over the past two years.
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university → lay → years
These included hiking student visa fees to $2,500, refusing more student visa applications and introducing a soft cap on new international student enrolments.
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These → include → enrolments
The latest move — barring international students from bringing their families to Australia — was unveiled by Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke last week.
"
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move → bar → Burke
We are deeply concerned by the policy direction," said Professor Jessica Gallagher, Adelaide University's deputy vice chancellor, international and external engagement.
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Gallagher → concern → direction
Professor Gallagher said the changes "absolutely" jeopardised the university's target for 6,000 additional international students.
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changes → say → students
"The policies that have been introduced over the last 12 months have had a significant impact on our attractiveness to international students,"she said.
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that → introduce → students,"she
"I would say that on the basis of this year, it's going to be a much tougher challenge for us [to meet that target]".
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us → say → target
University faces revenue shortfall
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University → face → shortfall
In May, Adelaide University Vice-Chancellor Professor Nicola Phillips revealed that international student enrolments were 40 per cent below target for semester one, creating a projected revenue shortfall of $90 million.
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enrolments → reveal → million
A spokesperson told the ABC the university has also "experienced a similar percentage decrease in international student enrolments in semester two".
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university → tell → semester
In her May message, Professor Phillips said the university would not undertake a "radical restructuring" of the workforce and domestic student enrolments remained on target.
But she warned that the university needed to be "prudent and very clever about how we manage our finances over these next three years".
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we → say → years
Professor Gallagher told the ABC that Adelaide University had experienced a "stark increase" in student visa refusals and had been "hit harder" than other Group of Eight universities.
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University → tell → universities
This is because, she said, Adelaide University attracted more students from India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal, where student visa refusals are higher than other markets like China.
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refusals → say → China
The policy changes have created the potential for "continuing downturns in our international student numbers".
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changes → create → numbers
"That has some really significant financial consequences," Professor Gallagher said.
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Gallagher → have → consequences
The universities of Adelaide and South Australia agreed to work together on a merger in December 2022 and decided to go ahead with it in July 2023.
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universities → agree → July
They were supported by a $464.5 million package from the Malinauskas government, which included $30 million for measures to attract international students.
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which → support → students
But the debate over amalgamation largely occurred before the Albanese government's turn on migration policy.
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debate → occur → policy
"Their timing was bad", Andrew Norton, a professor of higher education policy at Monash University, said of the merger.
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Norton → say → merger
"If this had been done five years ago, there would have been scope for adding international students.
"
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this → do → students
But as it's turned out, it's coincided with a policy decision to reduce international student numbers."
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it → turn → numbers
Professor Norton said he did not believe the merger would have gone ahead if the international student crackdown was happening in 2021/22.
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crackdown → say → 2021/22
He said the lost fee revenue means Adelaide University will "almost certainly" have to undertake some "further restructuring" to bring expenses down.
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University → say → expenses
"Its ranking should go up over time," Professor Norton said.
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Norton → go → time
"But because the demand for international education has gone down, there won't be that translation of a better ranking through more students that there might have been had the merger happened at an earlier time."
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merger → go → time
Professor Gallagher, asked whether the two universities had prepared during the merger for the federal government to take this policy direction, said: "It would have been amazing to have had a crystal ball".
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It → ask → ball
"But we can't have predicted the number of changes and the short time frame with which they were going to be implemented," she said.
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she → predict → which
She pushed back, however, on suggestions the university was unprepared, adding: "There's always contingencies."
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university → push → suggestions
In 2023, the two universities told a parliamentary committee they had modelled "worst case scenarios", including one where "the international student load of one institution falls away".
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load → tell → institution
"That would be difficult and is incredibly unlikely," the universities submitted at the time, "but effective management responses were identified and modelled".
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responses → submit → time
That submission, which put the cost of the merger between $500 and $650 million, said cost overruns were "not the most significant risk to the project".
"A drop in student demand presents a more significant challenge.
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drop → put → challenge
Other benefits to merger, SA government says
Minister for State Development Chris Picton said the state government shared the concerns of Adelaide University about the crackdown on international students, noting it was South Australia's second-largest export industry.
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it → say → students
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia