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Scrapping windfall tax early could cost UK £8.6bn by 2030, say campaigners

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Cite

Bussey, K. (2026, September 24). Scrapping windfall tax early could cost UK £8.6bn by 2030, say campaigners. Evening Standard. https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-healey-tax-uk-government-campaigners-andy-b1298326.html

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-24 · by Katrine Bussey

Quick Summary

Campaigners argue that replacing the current windfall tax on UK oil and gas companies with a new system called the oil and gas revenue levy before 2030 could cost the country up to £8.6 billion by 2030. Global Witness claims this reduction would occur because the OGRL is less effective at raising funds compared to the current energy profits levy, especially if oil prices drop below $100 per barrel. Flossie Boyd from Global Witness criticizes the industry for seeking tax breaks after profiting from crises and urges Prime Minister Andy Burnham to maintain robust polluter taxes that support renewable energy initiatives instead of cutting them.
Written by AI on 2026-09-25, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Campaigners claim that replacing the UK’s current windfall tax on oil and gas firms with a new scheme called the oil and gas revenue levy (OGRL) could cost the country up to £8.6 billion by 2030. The Westminster Government plans to introduce the OGRL in 2030, but industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) is pushing for an earlier implementation. OEUK argues that an early rollout of the new tax system could unlock 111 projects on the UK Continental Shelf. However, Global Witness criticizes this push as “scandalous,” stating that energy firms are seeking tax breaks after profiting from crisis-induced price hikes. The group’s research shows that if oil prices remain at around 100 US dollars a barrel, the OGRL would raise £8.6 billion less than the current windfall tax by 2030.

Written for “UK Windfall Tax Debate” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 UK Windfall Tax Debate
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 23% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 19 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of UK energy and taxation policies without focusing on the same specific incident.”
Evening Standard
Hedges 3 of 19 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different taxes and their impacts: one on high-value properties in London, and another on oil and gas firms' windfall tax.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 2 of 24 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the windfall tax on oil and gas firms: one focuses on job losses under Labour's rule and calls for the tax to be scrapped, while the other discusses potential financial costs if the tax is replaced earlier than planned.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 0 of 39 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different policy topics and financial measures related to taxes but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 4 of 40 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different topics related to taxation but describe distinct events and policies.”
Daily Mail
Hedges 10 of 49 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different types of taxes (capital gains tax and windfall tax) with distinct implications and timelines.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans strongly right Hedges 2 of 13 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different policy proposals and impacts related to taxation but describe separate events.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
23%
6 of 26 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Evening Standard · 8411 article(s) · 73 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 73 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Katrine Bussey
42 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Katrine Bussey
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 42 articles by Katrine Bussey →

Topics

Global Witness OEUK Offshore Energies UK The Westminster Government Westminster

Subjects

Global Witness ORG · 4× OEUK ORG · 2× Andy) Burnham PERSON · 1× Flossie Boyd PERSON · 1× Iran GPE · 1× Israel GPE · 1× OGRL ORG · 1× Offshore Energies UK ORG · 1× The Westminster Government ORG · 1× Westminster ORG · 1×

Narrative

Clare Aston, the tax expert involved in the research, said: “The replacement for the energy profits levy must be capable of raising broadly equivalent amounts for the Government, but analysis shows that the new windfall tax will collect billions less due to its design – no wonder the industry are desperate for it to take over immediately.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25
🔮 Replacing the UK’s current windfall tax on oil and gas firms could cost the country up to £8.6 billion by 2030, campaigners have claimed.
2026-09-25 · Evening Standard
Scrapping windfall tax early could cost UK £8.6bn by 2030, say campaigners · mixed framing

Claims (26 extracted, 6 hedged)

Replacing the UK’s current windfall tax on oil and gas firms could cost the country up to £8.6 billion by 2030, campaigners have claimed. uncertain
campaigners → replace → 2030
The Westminster Government has already outlined plans to replace the charge – known officially as the energy profits levy – with a new scheme called the oil and gas revenue levy. asserted
Government → outline → scheme
This is due to happen in 2030 – but energy firms are pushing for the replacement regime to start earlier. asserted
regime → happen → 2030
Industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) says introducing the new tax system earlier, coupled with a “more pragmatic” approach to licensing from Westminster could unlock 111 projects in the UK Continental Shelf. uncertain
introducing → say → Shelf
But campaigners at Global Witness said it was “scandalous” that energy firms, who have “cashed in on crisis” were now “pushing for tax breaks”. asserted
who → say → breaks
Energy prices have risen again as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, with supplies impacted by significantly reduced shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. asserted
supplies → rise → Hormuz
Research for Global Witness found that if oil prices remained at around 100 US dollars a barrel, the OGRL would raise £8.6 billion less than the current windfall tax by 2030. asserted
OGRL → find → 2030
Meanwhile, if oil prices dropped to 70 US dollars a barrel, the new tax system would net ministers no cash, compared with the £4.6 billion that could be raised by the current windfall tax over the same period, the analysis suggested. uncertain
analysis → drop → period
Urging ministers to resist calls to end the windfall tax early, Flossie Boyd, a senior campaigner with Global Witness, said: “It’s been galling to see a few wealthy fossil fuel firms cashing in on fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran while families endure soaring energy bills, food costs and deadly heat extremes. asserted
families → urge → bills
Read More “The fact that these mega-wealthy oil firms – having cashed in on crisis – are now pushing for tax breaks is nothing short of scandalous. asserted
firms → read → breaks
“Their claims that these tax cuts would generate jobs and investment are ludicrous. uncertain
cuts → generate → jobs
The UK’s oil industry is a dying sector whose jobs were in decline long before windfall tax was introduced.” asserted
tax → die → decline
She said: “Now more than ever, we need strong action from (Prime Minister Andy) Burnham to rein in the dangerous excesses of the fossil fuel industry. “ asserted
we → say → industry
That means no new oil and gas drilling, and fair, robust polluter taxes which help fund the solar panels, flood defences and building adaptations we so desperately need.” asserted
we → mean → panels
Clare Aston, the tax expert involved in the research, said: “The replacement for the energy profits levy must be capable of raising broadly equivalent amounts for the Government, but analysis shows that the new windfall tax will collect billions less due to its design – no wonder the industry are desperate for it to take over immediately. asserted
it → involve → design
“The thresholds and rates need urgent revision in October’s Budget to improve its design.” asserted
thresholds → need → design
Meanwhile, Simon Francis, from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said that “cutting taxes for oil and gas giants now would be a betrayal”. asserted
cutting → say → giants
And Rudy Schulkind, political campaigner at Greenpeace UK, was also critical of energy firms, saying: “The oil and gas industry knowingly fuelled the biggest planetary crisis of our time, made billions off it, and left ordinary people to pick up the economic and environmental bill. “ asserted
industry → say → bill
Now, they’re trying to lobby the Government for an enormous tax break.” asserted
they → try → break
A UK Government spokesperson said: “We’re giving the sector and its investors the long-term certainty to plan, invest and support jobs with plans to replace the energy profits levy when it ends by 2030, or earlier if its price floor is triggered. asserted
floor → say → 2030
“We are also making sure the North Sea has a prosperous and sustainable future through record investment that helps deliver the next generation of skilled jobs while growing the clean energy industries of the future.” asserted
that → make → future
Enrique Cornejo, OEUK’s energy policy director, said the Global Witness analysis “fails to capture the material economic, fiscal and employment benefits that could result from policies designed to encourage long-term investment in domestic energy production”. uncertain
that → say → production
Mr Cornejo said: “The Government should introduce the permanent windfall tax, the oil and gas revenue levy in January 2027, because this would generate greater and more sustainable long-term revenues for the UK Treasury. asserted
this → say → Treasury
“OEUK analysis shows that this would give operators the confidence to invest and arrest the decline in domestic production and deliver an estimated £14.9 billion more in tax revenue over the next decade. asserted
this → show → decade
“This fiscal reform, complemented by a regulatory regime prioritising domestic supply over imports, could unlock a total of £50 billion in private capital investment, supporting 111 additional projects. uncertain
reform → complement → projects
“Acting promptly would protect jobs, slow down the decline in production, reduce dependence on costly LNG imports and safeguard the supply chain and infrastructure needed for the UK to deliver the transition to low-carbon energy.” asserted
UK → act → energy
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