The Aporia · Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll

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Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, September 25). Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/25/brazils-lula-and-flavio-bolsonaro-still-essentially-tied-in-new-poll?traffic_source=rss

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Quick Summary

A recent Datafolha poll shows Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flavio Bolsonaro by two percentage points (47% to 45%) in a simulated run-off scenario for October’s presidential election, representing a technical tie within the poll's margin of error. The survey conducted between September 22 and 23 with 2,002 participants also indicates Lula leading in the first round with 40% compared to Bolsonaro’s 36%. Other polls released this week show similar results, though slightly varying margins.

Written by AI on 2026-09-25, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

A recent Datafolha poll shows that Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a narrow lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of October's election. The poll indicates Lula would receive 47% of the vote compared with 45% for Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff, representing a two-percentage-point difference within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro at 36%. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. If no candidate wins over 50% in the first round, Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro would advance to a runoff.

Written for “Brazil Election Polls” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

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Hedges 0 of 9 claims Outlet record 66/100

Brazil's President Lula bans online betting ahead of presidential election Different event

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⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 64/100

“The articles describe two different events: one is about a poll showing Lula's lead over Bolsonaro, and the other reports on Lula signing an order banning online betting.”

Brazil's Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro remain tied in runoff scenario, Atlas poll shows Different event

The Straits Times

Hedges 0 of 9 claims Outlet record 66/100

“The articles report different polls conducted by distinct organizations (AtlasIntel/Bloomberg vs Datafolha) on separate dates, showing varied results.”

Brazil election: Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied in latest polls Different event

Al Jazeera

⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 16 claims Outlet record 60/100

“The articles describe different polls released on different days, not the same specific polling data.”

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

0 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

not political

takes no side on a contested political question

Publisher signals

60/100

Al Jazeera's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.

Outlets on this story

Politics

Same framing elsewhere

articles that frame the event the way this one does

Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Al Jazeera Staff

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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 822 articles by Al Jazeera Staff →

Topics

BTG Pactual Brazil Brazilian Datafolha Quaest

Subjects

Lula PERSON · 7× Bolsonaro PERSON · 6× Datafolha ORG · 3× Augusto Cury PERSON · 1× Brazilian NORP · 1× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× Renan Santos PERSON · 1× Ronaldo Caiado PERSON · 1×

Narrative

A Quaest poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro with 42 percent of voter support in a potential run-off, versus 41 percent for Lula. Meanwhile, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll has Lula receiving 46 percent of voter support, compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a potential run-off.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25

🔮 In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off.

2026-09-25 · Al Jazeera

Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro still essentially tied in new poll · assertive framing

Claims (12 extracted, 0 hedged)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has maintained a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, his main challenger, in a potential run-off ahead of October’s presidential election, a Datafolha poll has shown. asserted

poll → maintain → election

In poll results released Thursday, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off. asserted

Lula → release → off

A previous Datafolha poll last week had Lula leading Bolsonaro by 46 percent to 44 percent. asserted

Lula → have → percent

The result also represents a technical tie as it falls within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points. asserted

it → represent → points

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro (36 percent), Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent) and Renan Santos (3 percent). asserted

Lula → lead → Bolsonaro

The previous poll showed the leftist president with 39 percent against the right-wing senator’s 36 percent. asserted

poll → show → percent

Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. asserted

who → serve → Lula

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president. asserted

Lula → seek → president

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a run-off. asserted

frontrunners → win → off

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23. asserted

Datafolha → survey → September

Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results. asserted

polls → show → results

Lula → release → off