Trump cozying up to Xi Jinping could spell trouble for Canada, says Michael Kovrig
uncertain
Kovrig → cozye → Canada
The U.S. president rolled out the red carpet for his Chinese counterpart at the White House
U.S. President Donald Trump's summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was more about pageantry than policy, says analyst Michael Kovrig.
asserted
Kovrig → roll → policy
Trump rolled out the red carpet this week for Xi in a three-day visit that ended with the two leaders sharing tea at the White House.
asserted
leaders → roll → House
The U.S. president has since called the meetings "very, very productive" and said they resulted in "great things for both countries."
asserted
they → call → countries
But Kovrig, a former Canadian diplomat and the senior Asia advisor for the International Crisis Group, says the visit produced nothing of substance.
asserted
visit → say → substance
Furthermore, he says the optics of Trump's cozy relationship with Xi undermine the U.S.'s own interests, and potentially those of Canada.
asserted
optics → say → Canada
This week marks five years since Kovrig was released from detention in China.
asserted
Kovrig → mark → China
His arrest, along with that of Canadian Michael Spavor, was widely viewed as retaliation for the 2018 arrest of Chinese tech executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on a U.S. warrant.
asserted
arrest → view → warrant
Here is part of his conversation with As It Happens guest host Helen Mann.
asserted
It → happen → Mann
Donald Trump says a lot of very positive things came out of this summit.
asserted
lot → say → summit
I think the main positive is actually for his counterpart, Xi Jinping.
asserted
positive → think → counterpart
The objective, particularly for the Chinese, was to have a ceremonial, really sort of pomp-and-circumstance-filled summit that made Xi Jinping look like a leading world statesman going to Washington on his first state visit in a decade and being received as an equal by the president of the United States.
asserted
Jinping → have → States
I think Donald Trump probably appreciated, also, the pageantry and that kind of reciprocity and the image he's tried to craft that, through his personal relationship with Xi Jinping, they can get things done and solve problems.
asserted
things → think → problems
You say that you expected Donald Trump is enjoying the pomp that he's had in this visit.
asserted
he → say → visit
But is there any kind of much needed win for him in this, given his status at home and abroad has taken such a hit in the last nine months or so?
asserted
status → need → months
I think the optics ... [are] this is a reciprocal visit.
asserted
this → think → ?
It situates both of them as big men, as strongman leaders, as Trump likes to see himself.
asserted
Trump → situate → himself
But the substance, I think, is mainly just a two-month extension of the trade truce.
asserted
I → think → truce
This is because China and the U.S. both went toe-to-toe trying to achieve a certain degree of dominance in economic statecraft — the U.S., through Trump's tariffs, which Canada is all too familiar with, and then China responded by restrictions mainly on its rare earths and critical minerals and used that as a chokehold, and the U.S. backed off.
So that has led to the two countries being in a kind of strategic stalemate where they're just focusing on small transactional wins and maintaining that kind of trade truce.
asserted
they → go → truce
What do you think Prime Minister Mark Carney might have been watching for in this summit as Canada faces not just its trade war with the U.S., but also an increasingly assertive China at a time when he is trying to navigate his own relationship with China?
uncertain
he → think → China
They are deeply concerned about a whole host of things that China is doing that are not good for U. S. interests and, by extension, are not good for Canadian interests, either.
asserted
that → do → interests
But their own president, because of his desire to impress this autocratic leader of China and show himself to be a strongman statesman in these situations with him, has undercut much of that policy.
asserted
himself → impress → policy
So there's this inherent tension there where the U.S. wants allies like Canada to align with it on tough policies on China, but then Trump goes and potentially makes deals with China that could leave those allies hanging out to dry.
uncertain
that → be → allies
What Mark Carney will be particularly looking for is: Did Trump, or is Trump potentially going to, agree to anything with Xi Jinping that could leave Canada out on a limb with a policy that exposes it to Chinese penalties, whether in trade or through diplomatic or other means?
uncertain
that → look → means
And I think he'll also be looking particularly at any U.S.-China trade deals that potentially disadvantage Canada economically.
asserted
that → think → Canada
Trump has held back a $14-billion [US] arms package that is in the pipeline for Taiwan since May.
uncertain
that → hold → May
And he's directly referred to it as a negotiating chip… and that affects Canada because Canada depends on a stable Indo-Pacific for so much of its economic well-being.
asserted
Canada → refer → being
It's also potentially leaving another democracy that the U.S. has been supporting for decades in a vulnerable position.
asserted
U.S. → leave → position
So it sends a signal about how the U.S. will treat its other allies
This week marks five years since your release from detention in China.
asserted
week → send → China
I'm just wondering what lessons you draw on from that experience as you continue your efforts to try to understand China's leadership, to sort of suss out its relationship with the rest of the world?
asserted
you → wonder → world
I left China five years ago after its party state finally agreed to a negotiated end to my wrongful detention there.
asserted
state → leave → detention
I'd been a political hostage in a ruthless effort to coerce Canada into releasing Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wanzhou.
asserted
I → coerce → Wanzhou
Xi Jinping is in Washington negotiating with the man who ultimately precipitated that whole crisis, Donald Trump.
asserted
who → negotiate → crisis
Meanwhile, the U.S. government's legal case against Huawei Technologies, of which the Meng extradition process was ultimately a part of, has begun this month in New York City.
asserted
process → begin → City
Because I might have been, certainly for Canadians, along with Michael Spavor, the most famous person … detained for political reasons in China.
uncertain
I → detain → China
There were other Canadians before me … and the cases keep coming.
asserted
cases → be → me
China is still wrongfully detaining foreign citizens and using them as bargaining chips, either as hostages or for political pressure.
asserted
China → detain → pressure
And so that risk is very much with us, and Canada needs to be working with allies to incentivize China to stop doing that, to stop behaving that way.
asserted
Canada → need → that
Meetings with Xi Jinping, whether it's Mark Carney or Donald Trump, are opportunities to call for releasing those prisoners.
asserted
it → call → prisoners
The message to Xi Jinping should be quite simple: Abducting and torturing people makes you look bad.
asserted
you → abduct → people
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
