The Aporia · US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets

A U.S. appeals court ruled that states can regulate prediction markets like Kalshi must comply with state gambling laws. The 6th Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati issued the decision, affirming Ohio and Tennessee’s authority to enforce their gambling regulations on these platforms. This ruling adds to existing legal debates as other federal courts have reached different conclusions on similar cases, potentially leading to a Supreme Court review. Prediction markets allow users to bet on various outcomes such as elections or cultural events, raising concerns about accessibility and regulation, especially for younger participants.

Written by AI on 2026-09-26, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

Story summary

On September 25, 2026, the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against prediction markets operator Kalshi, stating that states can regulate its sports event contracts under their own gambling laws. The court rejected Kalshi's argument that these contracts should be classified as "swaps" and thus regulated exclusively by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This decision has added to a growing debate about the regulatory oversight of prediction markets, with other appeals courts also considering similar issues. For instance, in Nevada, the 9th Circuit Court ruled that Kalshi’s event contracts fall under state gambling laws, highlighting a split among federal circuits on this matter, which could eventually lead to a hearing before the US Supreme Court.

Written for “Kalshi Court Ruling States Regulate P…” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

📰 Kalshi Court Ruling States Regulate P…

Other · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

This article reads leans left and hedges 14% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Kalshi dealt major blow as appeals court rules states can regulate prediction markets Same event

New York Post

Hedges 0 of 5 claims Outlet record 66/100

New York sues Polymarket over allegations of illegal gambling operations Different event

Al Jazeera

Hedges 3 of 27 claims Outlet record 60/100

“Article A reports on New York State's lawsuit against Polymarket, while Article B discusses a US court ruling involving Kalshi and state regulation of prediction markets.”

New York files lawsuit against Polymarket, calling it an illegal gambling operation Different event

The Independent

⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 0 of 10 claims Outlet record 59/100

“While both articles discuss legal actions related to prediction markets and gambling, they describe different lawsuits involving distinct companies (Polymarket vs. Kalshi) in separate events.”

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

Al Jazeera Staff

865 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

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“By running an unlicensed gambling operation, Polymarket has done more than just knowingly violate state law, they have put New Yorkers at risk, especially those underage who are most vulnerable to problem gaming,” Governor Kathy Hochul said in a statement.

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-26

🔮 The decision also deepens a divide among federal appeals courts regarding the authority of state and federal regulators to regulate such markets, opening up the possibility that the US Supreme Court could weigh in on the matter.

2026-09-26 · Al Jazeera

US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets · assertive framing

A United States appeals court has found that states can regulate prediction markets, ruling against a bid by the company Kalshi to exempt so-called event contracts from state gambling laws. asserted

states → find → laws

The Friday ruling by the 6th US Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati is the latest in an unfolding debate about oversight of prediction markets, whose explosive growth has prompted ethical and regulatory questions. asserted

growth → unfold → questions

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family → file → crisis

3Landmark trial on Meta’s impact on children’s mental health begins in US asserted

trial → begin → US

The decision also deepens a divide among federal appeals courts regarding the authority of state and federal regulators to regulate such markets, opening up the possibility that the US Supreme Court could weigh in on the matter. uncertain

Court → deepen → matter

Two other federal appeals courts have previously addressed questions of whether prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws. asserted

markets → address → laws

The 9th Circuit in San Francisco ruled last month that Kalshi’s event contracts are subject to Nevada’s gambling laws, while the 3rd Circuit in Philadelphia said in April that Kalshi’s contracts are not subject to New Jersey’s. asserted

contracts → rule → Jersey

In Friday’s ruling, Judge Julia Smith Gibbons wrote for the unanimous three-judge panel that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate event contracts under their gambling laws. asserted

Ohio → write → laws

Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the US. asserted

markets → become → US

They allow users to place bets on everything from sporting events and presidential elections to cultural developments and the prospects of a deal between the US and Iran on the latter’s nuclear programme. asserted

users → allow → programme

Experts have raised concerns about the proliferation of prediction markets and betting apps, especially for young people. asserted

Experts → raise → people

The state of New York filed a lawsuit against the prediction market Polymarket on Thursday, arguing that it is operating as an unlicensed gambling operation. asserted

it → file → operation

The company responded by stating that it would “fight for its users”. asserted

it → respond → users

Hochul → run → statement

US court rules against Kalshi, says states can regulate prediction markets

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