The Aporia · Why Taiwan’s coastguard vessel transfer to the Philippines has sparked a double outcry

Gabriel Dominguez

24 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction

🔮 US warns China is expanding its space toolkit with spaceplane and energy weapons While Beijing says it opposes space militarisation, US intelligence warns it could deploy orbital weapons by decade’s end A spaceplane is a spacecraft designed to operate in orbit and return to Earth through the atmosphere, much like the US Space Shuttle, although China’s secretive vehicle is believed to be uncrewed and more closely resembles the smaller American X-37B.

2026-10-28 · speculative framing · US warns China is expanding its space toolkit with spaceplane and energy weapons

🔮 China’s next-generation KJ-3000 radar planes may have quietly entered production Satellite imagery hints at KJ-3000 production, which could boost target detection and tracking in the western Pacific Satellite imagery captured on October 5 by US geospatial intelligence company Vantor

2026-10-26 · speculative framing · China’s next-generation KJ-3000 radar planes may have quietly entered production

🔮 “We will seriously consider [the possibility] in a concrete and realistic manner,” Takaichi told the Japanese parliament on October 14.

2026-10-25 · assertive framing · Eye on China: Japan reopens taboo debate over nuclear-powered submarines

🔮 Both feature conspicuous vertical structures at the stern that naval analysts believe could be used to lower large underwater drones into the water and recover them.

2026-10-20 · speculative framing · Is China building a fleet of drone motherships to extend its naval reach?

🔮 How a new US Army unit could challenge the PLA’s area-denial strategy in a Taiwan conflict

2026-10-14 · assertive framing · How a new US Army unit could challenge the PLA’s area-denial strategy in a Taiwan conflict

🔮 Could Pakistan’s Chinese-made weapons help protect Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks?

2026-10-13 · speculative framing · Could Pakistan’s Chinese-made weapons help protect Saudi Arabia from Houthi attacks?

🔮 US turns to low-cost Blackbeard hypersonic missiles to overwhelm Chinese defences At US$385,000 per unit, the carrier-launched weapons are being developed with an emphasis on affordability and mass production In May, the Pentagon sought congressional authorisation and funding to buy more than 12,000 Blackbeard missiles for deployment across the armed services over five years.

2026-10-12 · mixed framing · US turns to low-cost Blackbeard hypersonic missiles to overwhelm Chinese defences

🔮 How will new longer-range aircraft boost Manila’s South China Sea surveillance?

2026-10-07 · assertive framing · How will new longer-range aircraft boost Manila’s South China Sea surveillance?

🔮 At least 10 FK-2000 vehicles – along with an array of other Chinese-made military equipment – could be seen in footage of Turkmenistan’s Independence Day parade in Ashgabat on September 27.

2026-10-06 · mixed framing · Turkmenistan grows its arsenal of Chinese air defences as Russia’s role shrinks

🔮 US Navy launches drone command that could reshape Taiwan war planning The centre aims to integrate air, surface and underwater unmanned platforms into a unified combat-ready force The Robotic and Autonomous Systems Warfighting Development Centre, formally established on September 24 in Virginia, will develop doctrine and tactics for unmanned systems, train sailors to use them, and test whether they can keep operating under realistic conditions.

2026-09-29 · mixed framing · US Navy launches drone command that could reshape Taiwan war planning

Also by Gabriel Dominguez

US warns China is expanding its space toolkit with spaceplane and energy weapons

2026-10-28 · South China Morning Post

China’s next-generation KJ-3000 radar planes may have quietly entered production

2026-10-26 · South China Morning Post

Eye on China: Japan reopens taboo debate over nuclear-powered submarines

2026-10-25 · South China Morning Post

Chinese air force reveals Y-20B tanker-transport variant in official training image

2026-10-20 · South China Morning Post

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

All 24 articles by Gabriel Dominguez →

Lawrence Chung

17 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction

🔮 Under the plan, pilots could serve until 58 – up from about 48 for lieutenant colonels and 52 for colonels – extending their current service limits of 26 and 30 years, respectively.

2026-10-12 · assertive framing · Taiwan aims to raise pilot retirement age to 58 as new F-16V jets arrive

🔮 How Taiwan’s military manpower shortage is undermining its ability to fight Concerns are mounting over its ability to recruit elite troops and whether it will be able to operate its new US equipment

2026-10-11 · speculative framing · How Taiwan’s military manpower shortage is undermining its ability to fight

🔮 Move would mark a key upgrade in military ties but sparks domestic concern over budget growth and loss of strategic autonomy According to Taiwanese media reports at the weekend, the Pentagon plans to send one official from the Office of the Under Secretary of Defence for Policy and one expert from the Institute for Defence Analyses (IDA) to work on a long-term basis at the defence ministry’s headquarters in Taipei.

2026-10-05 · mixed framing · US defence experts to work inside Taiwan military HQ under reported pact

🔮 Taipei’s dilemma over history deepens with Xi-Trump praise of WWII Flying Tigers Taiwan’s ruling party uneasy that what could have been a valuable historical connection with the US has ended up benefiting Beijing’s ties Trump described China and the US as World War II allies and praised the Flying Tigers – a unit of American military personnel who helped defend mainland China against Japanese air attacks – while Xi recalled the two countries fighting “side by side” against Japanese militarism.

2026-10-04 · speculative framing · Taipei’s dilemma over history deepens with Xi-Trump praise of WWII Flying Tigers

🔮 The programme is expected to cost NT$27.59 billion, with NT$7.3 billion allocated this year through a supplementary budget.

2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Taiwan plans US$850 million ammunition spend to prepare for potential PLA blockade

🔮 Two years ago, 49 per cent believed the US would send troops to help defend Taiwan, compared with 42 per cent who thought it would not.

2026-09-21 · assertive framing · Nearly half of Taiwanese lack confidence in US defence commitments, survey finds

🔮 How will Beijing receive most senior Taiwan official to attend Apec events this year?

2026-09-19 · mixed framing · How will Beijing receive most senior Taiwan official to attend Apec events this year?

🔮 Taiwanese defence minister says exchanges with the US are ‘even more extensive than you might imagine’

2026-09-07 · mixed framing · Taiwan sets up US-backed cyber unit to hunt hidden military threats

🔮 Taiwan’s opposition parties split over mayoral race, threatening 2028 election alliance

2026-09-05 · mixed framing · Taiwan’s opposition parties split over mayoral race, threatening 2028 election alliance

🔮 Extra funds push Taiwan’s defence spending past NT$1 trillion for the first time The island’s cabinet approves supplementary budget, with heavy investment in missiles, drones and classified programmes Taiwan’s cabinet approved a supplementary defence budget of NT$145.7 billion (US$4.6 billion) on Thursday, pushing the island’s total defence-related spending for this year above NT$1 trillion for the first time. The additional funding is expected to raise this year’s overall defence spending from 3.32 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) to about 3.83 per cent, the highest level in decades.

2026-09-03 · mixed framing · Extra funds push Taiwan’s defence spending past NT$1 trillion for the first time

Also by Lawrence Chung