It’s a kind of ticking tax bomb.
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It → ’ → bomb
At the height of the COVID-19 emergency in 2020, Ontario ordered the non-profit corporation that reassesses property values across the province to take a pause, freezing the price estimates that municipalities use to calculate property-tax bills.
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municipalities → order → bills
As taxpayers know full well, the freeze didn’t stop municipalities from raising their taxes: It just froze the valuations on which those property-tax bills are based, which are normally done in the province every four years.
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which → know → province
Six years later, with other pandemic restrictions long gone, the government of Premier Doug Ford never turned its assessment system back on.
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government → go → system
Now, lifting this freeze, critics warn, could have explosive political consequences – but so could leaving it in place.
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critics → lift → place
If assessments resumed, property owners with real estate that rose more in value than the average in their communities could face the sticker-shock of higher property-tax bills.
But the freeze has also created another problem, experts point out.
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experts → resume → problem
It has meant that other taxpayers, whose homes and businesses didn’t appreciate as quickly, or sank in value, have long been paying more than they otherwise would have – in some cases, thousands of dollars a year more.
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they → mean → dollars
Paul Sullivan, a B.C. property-tax consultant, argues it is time to rip off the Band-Aid.
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it → argue → Aid
The national tax and advocacy leader for his consulting firm, Ryan ULC, Mr. Sullivan has launched a campaign to lift Ontario’s freeze.
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leader → consult → freeze
“I would say that the biggest problem with this issue is education and transparency,” Mr. Sullivan said in an interview.
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Sullivan → say → interview
“People just don’t know.
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People → know → ?
And if they did know, there would be outrage.”
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they → know → ?
Property assessments in Ontario for the municipal tax purposes are conducted by the non-profit Municipal Property Assessment Corp.
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assessments → conduct → purposes
Any increase in a property’s value is phased in gradually over four years, before the next assessment.
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increase → phase → assessment
MPAC was about to issue a reassessment for 2020, when COVID-19 struck.
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MPAC → issue → 2020
This means MPAC’s last estimated values date from January, 2016.
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values → mean → January
So Ontario property taxpayers have been paying bills based on that fully-phased-in 2016 value, now a decade out of date, for the past six years.
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taxpayers → pay → years
According to data MPAC provided to The Globe and Mail, residential properties across the province saw an estimated average price increase of 91 per cent from 2016 to 2025, with the figure for the GTA at 72 per cent – numbers that have slid back down a bit from large postpandemic spikes.
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that → accord → spikes
MPAC estimates the median increase for commercial properties across the province at 103 per cent.
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MPAC → estimate → cent
Other provinces (except for New Brunswick, which put in a one-year freeze this year as it reforms its property-tax system), have their regular reassessment systems running.
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systems → put → system
B.C. and Alberta reassess properties every year.
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B.C. → reassess → properties
The Association of Municipalities of Ontario, which represents local governments across the province, has long called for a return to normal and suggested in a letter to the Premier in July that reassessments should be done every two years.
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reassessments → represent → July
The Ontario government has said it is consulting on the issue.
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it → say → issue
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy told reporters in June he had no “time frame” on restarting reassessments.
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he → tell → reassessments
On Thursday he said the government was still reviewing the issue: “We have gone through a pandemic.
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We → say → pandemic
We’re going through a tariff situation.
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We → go → situation
We’ve had a lot of uncertainty and what people want is certainty.”
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want → have → what
Mr. Ford’s critics note that the Premier regularly boasts of never raising a tax – and they suggest that a return to reassessments might prompt some taxpayers to blame him for their rising bills.
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return → note → bills
Tax experts are quick to point out that a higher assessed value does not necessarily mean a higher property tax bill – that depends on whether your property rose more than the average in your municipality.
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property → point → municipality
A reassessment also has no bearing on the taxes you have already paid.
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you → have → taxes
And it does not mean your city gets a tax windfall.
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city → mean → windfall
It just redistributes the basis for the tax burden differently, across the same taxpayers.
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It → redistribute → taxpayers
Those unknowingly paying too much because of the assessment freeze, Mr. Sullivan says, include many homeowners in the east Toronto inner suburb of Scarborough, where real estate prices in some neighbourhoods rose more slowly than elsewhere in the city.
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prices → pay → city
His firm’s researchers reviewed the assessments and sales prices of 1,643 detached Scarborough homes that changed hands last year.
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that → review → hands
They estimate that 40 per cent were paying more than $1,000 too much in property taxes.
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cent → estimate → taxes
The current condo crash has also produced more victims: Across the entire city of Toronto, Mr. Sullivan estimates that half of condo owners – based on 2025 sale prices – were also overpaying.
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half → produce → prices
Among businesses, he says, the struggling regional shopping mall is among the worst hit.
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mall → say → worst
With the growth of online retail, malls have dramatically faded in value over the past 10 years – and yet are still paying property taxes as though it was 2016.
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it → fade → taxes
He also says it’s a similar story for many small retailers on main streets in Toronto, based on data he has pulled from 3,000 commercial sales between 2023 and 2025.
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he → say → 2023
Some retailers, Mr. Sullivan calculates, are being overcharged by tens of thousands of dollars.
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Sullivan → calculate → dollars
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
