China is preparing to build its sixth research station in Antarctica, expanding into Marie Byrd Land — a remote, little-studied stretch of the continent's west.
asserted
China → prepare → west
It has some experts and politicians worried.
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experts → have → ?
"Five bases have already been built, and China claims there is no geopolitical motive," she said.
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she → build → ?
"Open your eyes, [Department of] Defence."
Whether that alarm is warranted depends on who you ask.
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you → open → who
China says the new base, which it plans to build next year, will support research into climate change, ice sheets and marine systems.
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it → say → change
The US operates three permanent year-round bases.
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US → operate → bases
So does Australia, which claims 42 per cent of the continent, while Russia has five year-round stations.
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Russia → do → stations
But experts warn what matters most is not the station itself.
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matters → warn → ?
It is what the project might signal about China's deepening influence inside the institutions that govern Antarctica.
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that → signal → Antarctica
Jiliang Chen, a lecturer in Antarctic law and governance at the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies at the University of Tasmania, sees the new station mainly as a matter of prestige.
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Chen → see → prestige
"Building a station is China capitalising on its strength in this strategic game," Mr Chen said.
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Chen → build → game
China's new station is being developed as per the Antarctic Treaty System's environmental assessment procedures.
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station → develop → procedures
Under the Antarctic Treaty, member states cannot veto a proposed new station.
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states → veto → station
The treaty was originally signed by 12 countries in 1959 and designed to ensure the use of the area for peaceful purposes only and the protection of the environment.
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treaty → sign → environment
Mr Chen said a stronger physical presence helped consolidate China's role in future decisions on the continent.
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presence → say → continent
"It gives people one more thing to be proud of, scientists more facilities to do research, and more projects to plan," he added.
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he → give → research
One complication is that equipment such as satellite systems, communications hardware, aircraft and drones serve civilian research and can easily be adapted for military use.
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equipment → serve → use
That dual-use capability is why Mr Chen believes inspection and transparency matter most.
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inspection → believe → ?
Elizabeth Buchanan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), points to China's existing satellite ground stations and its Military-Civil Fusion policy, which enables civilian companies to develop or supply technologies for military use.
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which → point → use
Her deeper worry is that China's spread of stations could eventually let it operate across Antarctica without depending on other countries.
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it → let → countries
"Polar power with serious polar independence means we have very little leverage left,"she said.
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we → mean → leverage
Some say that framing is overblown.
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framing → say → ?
The Antarctic Treaty prohibits military bases, weapons and new territorial claims, while permitting military personnel and equipment for peaceful purposes.
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Treaty → prohibit → purposes
China's embassy in Canberra told the ABC it was "fully committed to ensuring its activities in the region strictly align with the Antarctic Treaty System".
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activities → tell → System
Tony Press, the former head of the Australian Antarctic Division, said he believed mining and military fears were exaggerated, citing the cost and difficulty of moving people and equipment across such a hostile environment.
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fears → say → environment
"Antarctica is a terrible place to fight a war from,"Mr Press said.
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Press → fight → war
Unlike China's year-round Quinling station, the new base would run only in summer — hardly the profile of a strategic outpost, Mr Press said.
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Press → run → outpost
Instead, he said China was making a geopolitical statement.
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China → say → statement
"China is obviously doing the old strategic thing of making sure they've got stations around Antarctica that demonstrate quite clearly that they are a big player in, and have an interest in, all parts of Antarctica," he said.
Working the system, not breaking it
Analysts say China is finding ways to become increasingly influential without breaking the rules.
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China → do → rules
China joined the treaty later than other countries, in 1983.
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China → join → 1983
"China has always been nervous about natural resources and probably more hungry for economic growth," Mr Chen said.
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Chen → say → growth
Fishing is where this showed most clearly, he added.
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he → show → ?
China joined the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), largely because of its interest in Antarctic fishing, Mr Chen said.
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Chen → join → fishing
ASPI's Ms Buchanan pointed to the broader growth of China's fishing fleet and domestically built fleet of icebreakers as part of its "Polar Silk Road" strategy.
She said China was also preparing to unveil a nuclear-powered icebreaker, which she said would reduce its reliance on gateway ports such as Hobart.
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she → point → Hobart
The Chinese Communist Party's latest high-level five-year plan aimed to expand capacity in high-seas fisheries, and polar fisheries were now getting similar attention, Mr Chen said.
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Chen → aim → attention
Emperor penguins caught in the middle of geopolitics
China has generally opposed new marine protected areas in Antarctica.
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China → catch → Antarctica
Nearly half of Antarctica's 60 emperor penguin colonies have suffered increased or total breeding failure since 2016 as sea ice they depend on has retreated, according to researchers from the British Antarctic Survey.
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they → suffer → Survey
Efforts to list them as a Special Protected Species have stalled at CCAMLR, blocked by China and Russia.
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Efforts → list → China
The stated objections cite insufficient scientific evidence, or argue that such a listing would address a symptom (habitat loss) rather than its underlying cause of climate change, which sits outside the treaty's scope.
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which → state → scope
Lyn Goldsworthy, an adjunct researcher at the University of Tasmania's Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, said China was operating from a strategic perspective, and wanted to avoid restricting access to certain areas in case it had "certain aspirations" in the future.
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it → say → future
…and 17 more, not listed.
The Aporia